forex trade

Polish Currency

2008-08-02T21:43:00.000-07:00

If you are considering, long term investment, like one or two months than Polish currency might be interesting for you. For the last year it got stronger and stronger. Just checkout the charts below, this are EUR/PLN and USD/PLN, timeframe 1 year, on both charts you can see what i would call quality trend. Line is at 45 degrees, almost no corrections.

EUR/PLN

Let's start with EUR/PLN, i won't even talk about technical analysis, indicators and so on, you can see what is happening here. Just draw the line wait for minor correction and get into trade. You maybe wondering.

Ok it went down for a year, won't it turn back? This is a good question, i think this trend can end up pretty soon maybe 3 or 4 months, hard to say really. The problem here is that Polish bussiness has a problem with strong PLN against EUR, because a lot of companies export their products to west Europe. With strong Polish currency, their products are actually more expensive and thus less competetive.

The bottom line is, Polish bussinessmen want this trend to stop, and i believe that government will do what they ask for, the question is when?

USD/PLN

Now look at USD/PLN chart it looks almost the same as EUR/PLN, so again i won't go into details how to trade it.
Now to answer the same question as earlier, is this trend here to stay? I think it is, because gas price in Poland pretty much depends on gas price in USA. When gas price in USA gets more expensive it also gets more expensive in Poland (and rest of the world btw).

However, if gas price will go up, but at the same time Polish currency would get stronger against dollar, then it won't affect Poland as much as it would without USD/PLN going down.

Now if i got you interested in this form of investment, you will need a broker, which allows to trade Polish currency or at least EUR/PLN and USD/PLN. As far as i am concerned there are not much brokers who allow this. The ones who do are Oanda and maybe SaxoBank however i am not sure of that.

That is not end of the problems, even if you will find broker who allows to trade this pairs, probably spread on them will be somewhere between 20 and 40 pips, so like i said it is only good to trade them if you are looking for long term investment not scalping or even swing trading.

12 Major currency pairs

2008-07-31T09:32:00.000-07:00

Well to be honest there is no such thing as 12 major currency pairs, there are actually about 7 (depends on how you count) major currencies, and well ... many major currency pairs.

So what's with your title, you maybe wondering? Let me justify myself, like i said there is no such thing as 12 major currency pairs, this is my list of currency pairs i like to trade, all my currency pairs are made from major currencies thus the name "12 Major currency pairs", however i do not advice you to use this name in group of professional forex traders, in best case they will get confused ... i do not want to tell what can happen in the worst case here :).

I will give you the list shortly but let me first explain why i choosed this currency pairs. There are few reasons, there are quite big moves on them in short periods of time, small spread, and i find it easy to apply technical analysis to those currency pairs.

Ok here it is:

EUR/USD - well obvius, there is not a single trader who does not trade this currency pair
GBP/USD - pretty similar pair to EUR/USD however it is quicker, and the moves are about 50% bigger, 150 PIPs daily is not uncommon for this pair.
USD/JPY - quite predictible lately, notice that most of the time USD/JPY is bullish it moves slowly up, when there is a correction on this pair, it moves few hundreds pips down in just few days.
EUR/JPY - pretty much the same as USD/JPY but moves are less predictible
AUD/USD - good alternative where you have no idea where EUR/USD will go, however moves on this pair are smaller then on EUR/USD
USD/CAD - pretty predictible, mainly because CAD is highly correlated with oil price, and you know what oil price chart looks like right?
USD/CHF - very strong correlation between this pair and EUR/USD
EUR/CHF - the same as USD/JPY slowly moves up and then quickly falls down
EUR/CAD - high spread, well i do not know i just like to trade, i always find it easy to predict where will it move and how much
EUR/GBP - very slow currency pair, however sometimes spread can be low on it
EUR/AUD - this is very personal pick, i like to trade, but spread is very high so i only use it for long term trades
NZD/USD - yes NZD is not really a major currency, but i like to trade this pair because it has low spread, easy to predict and has weak correlation to any other pair on this list

Well that is all, if you have your own private currency pairs list feel free to share it here in comments section, also i will be happy to answer any of your questions.

Day Trading Forex Currency

2008-07-28T21:46:00.000-07:00

Right, day trading today. People are very interested in the concept of day trading. And i think there are at least few reasons for this. Before i will go into details, let's define day trading, what it really is.

On Forex day traders are guys who make a lot of trades (like over 10) in a single. Each of the trade is closed by the end of trader trading session, on Forex it usually means turning your computer off. Note that this is not the same as scalping. The only similarity between scalping and day trading is that, a lot of traders fail there.

Main resaon for this is that traders are tempted with huge profits, when doing day trading people are almost always using huge lavereages, like 100:1, it means buying 10 Lots with 10 000$. I think you can easily see how much one PIP is worth then, yeah it is 100$. It seems great at first, looks like a quick cash, but consider the fact that you only need 100 PIP move in the wrong direction to meet mr. Margin Call.

In reality when you trade on such high leverage it looks like everything is happening with a speed of light, while in fact it all happens with a normal speed, it is this ridiculous leverage that makes things harder.

Next thing you need to consider when you want to do day trading on forex currencies, is that not every broker will be happy with what you are doing, they may close your account or limi your leverage if ... you will start making money. So chose your broker wiseley checkout Forex forums and read brokers reviews make sure they allow day trading.

You may now think, wow day trading is hard. Well in fact it really is harder then you think. I am not saying it cannot be done, i am not saying you cannot earn like 200% a month. I am just saying that success with day trading want happen overnight, if you focus on it and commit to becoming day trading the success will come with time and experience.

Do you have what it takes to become a successful Forex Trader?

2008-04-13T12:36:00.000-07:00

Forex trading, or any trading for that matter, is an occupation that requires experience and the accumulation of proficiency not unlike any other highly skilled profession. Whether you are a leading executive at a major publically traded company, a professional golfer or trading from your kitchen table, there are 5 key ingredients that one must possess in order to become successful.

1. You must be Passionate about what you do.

As Forex traders we all face one unique set of circumstances that does not exist in any other profession. We get rewarded for when we succeed and equally punished when we don’t! Could you image a corporate worker one quarter receiving a significant accomplishment bonus and the next quarter actually getting money taken from their paycheck for missing performance targets? Not on your life!

We do as Forex traders and that is why passion for what you do will carry you through the tough times that are part of your trading business. Asked yourself why you trade currencies and would you still do it if Forex were not potentially lucrative? Your answers will be quite revealing. You’ve got to feel your passion for trading!

2. You have to Apply Yourself and work hard at it.

I talk to so many people that enter into Forex trading with the aspiration of getting rich quick. Without putting the time and energy into really getting good at trading I see them jump from strategy to strategy looking for the goose that will lay the golden egg and eventually quitting while blaming everything else, except the true cause.

I got news for you – you are the goose and your Forex education is the golden egg. The magic has always resided with the magician and not some strategy. Work hard at trading and the rewards will eventually come your way. Remember what Tiger Woods said, “Funny, the harder I work the luckier I get.” Apply yourself as a trader and it will be no accident when your account begins to blossom.

3. You must Focus to really get good at what you do.

Now here is the hurdle most Forex traders struggle to get over. You have the passion and you are applying yourself to your trade, now focus and really get good at just at what you are doing. Be the expert to the experts at just that one thing. Become the master of a strategy or risk management methodologies. Really focus on getting good at it.

Stop jumping around or getting pulled from the last “latest and greatest” into the next “latest and greatest” and focus on one aspect of Forex trading and know it inside out. Know it strengths and weakness. Set your sights on becoming expert on just one aspect of trading and watch it spill over in all other aspects for your currency trading. This is the time to fail forward fast, use every setback as a learning opportunity that will propel you 3-steps ahead!

4. You must Push Yourself beyond the point everyone else might have quite.

In Forex Trading this is simple. Assume there is someone on the other side of your trade that is pushing themselves and sharpening their edge. To be successful you must you must do the same thing. Now is the time to examine your mental edge. Do you know the single most critical factor in any currency trade? It is you, the trader! Sharpening you mental edge is the most difficult aspect of trading, but also the most rewarding.

Start with your Forex education and gain the self-awareness necessary to maximize your strengths and suppress your weaknesses. Any expert will tell you that trading is 80% mental. It’s time to sharpen your trading to the razor’s edge and you do this through Forex education. A constant and never ending process that will become the cornerstone of your Forex experience.

5. You must, without wavering, be Determined and Persist to your objective.

You will fail. I can state that emphatically. However, you will not be defeated unless you allow your failures to control your trading. It is the old adage; failure is not falling of your horse, failure is refusing to get back on. Your success depends on your ability to dismiss the criticism, rejection, self-doubt and pressures associated with Forex trading.

Defining what is a winning trade, losing trade and bad trade will go a long way into developing you as a successful trader. Without the determination and persistence in all aspects of your trading life, obstacle will definitely appear closer and larger than they actually are.

Take a moment and assess yourself and your trading. Do you have the key elements to succeed? Which areas are presents development opportunities? When conducting a self-evaluation it is critical to be totally upfront and honest with yourself. After all, you will only be dishonest with yourself. One of the most interesting observations you can make is that all key success factors are interwoven. One factor supports the other. This is why your Forex education is a continuous journey of forex strategy, money management and self-mastery. Set these factors as your Forex education goals and take your currency trading to new heights.

Happy Trading!!

Forex Journey

Trust Yourself

2008-03-19T09:12:00.000-07:00

When you turn on the TV (especially mainstream media) you are inundated with news of the demise of the dollar. Business news, national news and even your local news channels are leading into events with reports of the dollar and the economy. Analysts are featured and opinions are smattered across the airwaves in an attempt to provide an oracle response to current economic events.

Beware the source and follow your system.

In these volatile times it is easy to get caught up in the hype provide by all the news media and analyst. It is natural to want to look for guidance. Remember to trust your system and more important trust yourself. You, after all, are the single largest determinant of your success.

Your approach should remain consistent, almost impervious to the events occurring because you follow your plan with discipline and ruthless detail to executing at optimum performance.

Be disciplined and follow your plan. If market conditions don’t suite your style – sit this one out until conditions provide your with your personal edge!

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

How to Adopt the Traits of a Successful Trader

2008-03-18T08:25:00.000-07:00

Hey Traders,

Here's a post by Heather Johnson that will serve you well in your trading – Enjoy!

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Not all Forex traders were cut from the same cloth, but the most successful investors do have several things in common. Whether you are a newcomer to trading or you are a seasoned pro who is trying to improve your game plan, the following suggestions may help you out. Below are five ways to evolve into a successful trader:

1. Become a lifelong student – Never stop learning about the business you are in. If you think you know everything about the Forex market, then think again. The successful trader is a lifelong student who constantly absorbs new information about the ever-evolving climate of Forex trading.

2. Be courageous – It's hard to overcome your fears when you are dealing with an unpredictable investment. Even if you are equipped with extensive knowledge about the market, you still have to put your money at risk every day. Reserve a small amount of apprehension (just enough to keep you sensible), but don't hesitate at every turn.

3. Hone your math skills – You are wading through a sea of mathematical information every day when you look over your charts. The most successful traders know how to take that large amount of information and pull out necessary information.

4. Be patient – Become a long-term investor and put all notions of overnight success to rest. You must adopt a stoic attitude, as you make the most informed decisions about your business and leave the rest to fate.

5. Learn to love trading – Maybe you already do love trading and that's why you are involved with Forex. However, many people are either too wrought with anxiety to enjoy it or merely see it as a job. If you don't like trading, don't trade. A great trader will love the roller coaster ride he/she is on.

Are the above suggestions obvious? Perhaps, but many of us take a wrong turn somewhere and need some simple advice to get us back on track. In order to stay on top of your game, you will need to constantly reinvent yourself, as there is no world that calls for flexibility more than the Forex market.

About the Author:

Heather Johnson is a freelance finance and economics writer, as well as a regular contributor for CurrencyTrading.net, a site for currency trading and forex trading
information. Heather welcomes comments and freelancing job inquiries at her email address heatherjohnson2323@gmail.com .

ForexJourney.com

Happy Trading!!

Standard Deviation Channel

2008-02-05T22:11:00.000-08:00

I recently read article about, about standard deviation channel, (which as you may already know is one of my favorite indicators), and I was shocked, although author of this article explained what standard deviation channel is in mathematics but it had very little to do with Forex or any other financial market. Furthermore, I read other articles about standard deviation channels and what I found out is that they all were giving useless information to readers, so here is the right way to use standard deviation channel.

First of all, authors suggest that, when price will reach upper line, it is time to take SHORT position and vice versa, when price will reach lower line you should take LONG position because market is oversold.

This is true only if market is trending. It is quite safe to treat then lower line as support line and upper line as resistance line, and more over (depending on your standard deviation channel settings) 95% of price movement will happen between this two lines, as long as market is trending. The obvious question here is how to tell if Forex is trending, but this question is beyond the scope of this article, at least for now J.

What I like about standard deviation is that it allows to easily determine trend, you just need to draw channel over the selected period of time and that’s it, you have detected trend. However to use this indicator efficiently you need some experience, ideally you should see channel on the chart before you draw any lines on it. If you don’t see it, then do not worry it is all about experience.

How to use correctly Standard Deviation Channel

If market is in uptrend, you should take ONLY long positions, when price will reach lower line. Never take SHORT position in uptrend when the price will reach upper line, that do NOT mean that market is overbought, in uptrend price can easily go waaay over upper line and hit STOP LOSS, of trader who was stupid enough to take SHORT position in bull market.

Obviously, the opposite goes for market in downtrend, do not take long positions on lower line, NEVER.

Most importantly, this indicator is called standard deviation channel and you should use it only with CHANNELS not with any random piece of chart, below is the stock market chart with two correctly drawn channels.

Economic Calendar

2008-01-30T23:15:00.000-08:00

Earlier, actually in the last post i wrote about importance of knowing what economic data that affect Forex market will be relased and when. This information alone can save you a lot of pain, because, after some key economic indicators are relased, prices in just few minutes can go +200 pips up, and then out of sudden 300 pips down.

This mainly affects day traders or scalpers, and the EUR\USD currency pair. I belive there are many ways you can deal with market moving indicators, but i will list two of my ideas i have came up with:

Few minutes before economic data announcement hedge your position.
Not all Forex brokers allows to hedge, if yours not, then you can close your position before data release and open a new one after market will "calm down".

And obviously do not make new trades (other then hedges) before economic data announcement.

More over important economic data dictates trend of the market, so you can use it for simple Forex fundamental analysis.

But the most important question here is, where do i get this data and how will i know which is important and which is not? My all time favourite source for economic data is bloomber economic calendar, which you can find here: ECalendar.

I like this calendar because, it places icon next to particular event, which tells me how important this event is, so i do not have to make my own research on every single event.

From my experience i can tell you that, two events responsible for the biggest moves are: Employment situation and FOMC meeting.

7 signs of bad investment

2008-01-30T22:47:00.000-08:00

Buying stocks on stock market or taking positions on Forex, often involves great deal of emotions, especially when you invest a lot of money, or you are starting out with trading and you are not comfortable with putting your money on the risk.

When it comes to money emotions are hard to control however, before you make decision to put money into some stocks, you can try to determine if there are any deadly signs of bad investment behind your decision. (For a full article visit ASXNewbie website, i will just list quickly those signs and make my comments on it).

Here they are: 7 signs of bad investment

Research, lack of research is probably one of the greatest mistake you can make, if you make good research, then you can get at least some confidence in your trade, which is important when it goes bad at the beginning.
Hesitation on fundamentals, this mainly applies to stock market, Forex traders rearly have to focus on fundamental data
Buying stocks for long term with no end in mind, it speaks for itself.
Not being aware of important announcements, on Forex it is useful to know when important economic data will be released, such as employment situation which is responsible for a big price changes in short time.
Sometimes investment needs care, especially if you trade long term
It is not a shame to get rid of bad investment or position, this goes back to the do not risk more then 5% of your capital on the single trade.
Doing what everyone else is doing, this is often mistake of unexperienced trader, be your own guru, do not look at other to know what to do, especially if they are losesr.

Mentioned article is more relevent to stock market, so i changed a bit all seven points to make them fit perfectly Forex market.

Societe Generale reveals how it was duped in trading scam

2008-01-27T22:49:00.000-08:00

Do you remember when lately SocGen anounced that junior trader frauded over $70 bilion? That is a lot of cash and this case has to be explained to public opinion and it seems that bank managers and trader which is partly as i belive responsible for such a big loss are trying to do it.

It maybe not article about Forex but, it is about trading, maybe even about great tragedy. We always learn from mistakes, and it is better to learn from someones else mistakes then yours so i advice you to read it.

Here is a short excerpt to encourage you to reading, by the way it is quite long.

"French bank Societe Generale has admitted that a gap in control systems allowed a junior trader to take a $73 billion losing bet on European share prices, but defended its handling of the world's biggest trading scandal.

Prosecutors said the trader, 31-year-old Jerome Kerviel, would remain in custody until Monday after handing himself in on Saturday and was co-operating with a probe into how the bank racked up $7 billion losses on alleged illicit deals.

Kerviel's new lawyer said he had been doing a trader's job by taking on risk and accused the bank of setting him up for a public "lynching" by letting him carry all the blame.

"He has not embezzled anyone, he hasn't taken a cent for himself and he was just doing his job as best he could," Christian Charriere-Bournazel told Reuters."

Forex reserves swell $3.2 bilion

2008-01-27T22:44:00.000-08:00

Another interesting article about forex reserves.

"Foreign exchange reserves rose by $3.16 billion in the week ending January 18, 2008 taking the total reserves to a record $284.98 billion. Money market dealers said that the rise in the forex reserves was largely on account of subscription to the IPO of Reliance Energy that closed on January 18.

The public offering is expected to have drawn in large scale funds from foreign institutional investors. During the same week, the BSE’s benchmark index, Sensex, had dipped about 1,000 points to close at 19,700 with most FII selling shares.

The foreign currency assets stood at $276.13 billion while the reserves with IMF was down by $1 million to $433 million, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India in its Weekly Statistical report. In the two weeks ended January 18, forex reserves rose by $8.3 billion. For the second consecutive week, the government’s deposits with the Reserve Bank rose."

Read more here Forex reserves swell $3.2 bn on IPO inflows

How forex market should operate

2008-01-27T22:35:00.000-08:00

Interesting article at Vanguard, author explains how Forex market should operate. Article is based on proposal for a liberalized foreign exchange market in Nigeria and its economic benefits.

Two most interesting sections selected by author are:

How market will operate
Payment for import and forex auction

"3.6 HOW THE MARKET WILL OPERATE
The CBN will consolidate the distributable portion of the dollar earnings monthly (or at worst bimonthly) in arrears. The realizable values will be published in appropriate government bulletins monthly.

3.6.1 The CBN would issue warrants denominated in dollars monthly without fail to each beneficiary of federally derived dollar revenue according to constitutional provisions with regard to sharing of such revenue.

3.6.2 The beneficiary of the dollar warrant (strictly not cash) (federal, state, local governments, statutory agencies etc) will approach their separate bankers with their dollar warrants for conversion of all or part of the dollar warrant into naira for its corporate budgetary obligations which cannot be paid in dollars (since the dollar is not legal tender in Nigeria).

3.6.3 All buying and selling of currencies will be carried out through a bank or any other such denominated financial institution.

The local bank officer on receipt of the request would seek current rate confirmation from its head office before concluding a deal."

Amero Revolution?

2008-01-26T00:48:00.000-08:00

Recently i was watching movie Zeitgeist. Pretty cool movie if you haven't seen it i advice you to do it. It consists of three parts first is about Christianity and Jesus, second amd third are about America, power and money which interests most i belive.

Anyway, in a part three there is mentioned new currency Amero. Which will be new currency for North America (Canada, USA, Mexico). So it seems that end for our favourite currency pair is neer, and the question is not: will it happen? will USD will be replaced with Amero? but rather when will it happen? From my informations it will be around 2010, but really it is hard to tell.

The best way to replace USD is to make it weaker and weaker which is happening and we can see it on our Forex charts. So maybe it is a good idea to take long term position against dollar?

This is not important. What is important is this. How will new currency affect Forex market? In my opinion not much. It will be a currency as any other currency on Forex, the only problem will be a fact that there will be no history for it.

This means no backtesting, and even no "space" for technical analysis. However these will be problems only for long term traders or swing traders. I guess scalpers will be okay with this because they do not need a lot of data, but i do not know i am not a scalper.

However, what concerns me most is that we will loose three currencies and gain only one new, which happen further again because of Asian union which is getting ready to introduce asian currency (asio?).

Why the Fed is such a Lousy Wizard of Oz

2008-01-15T13:20:00.000-08:00

Another interesting articles from my friends over at Elliottwave.

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Why the Fed is Such a Lousy Wizard of Oz
By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave InternationalSeptember 7, 2007

Central bankers who "follow the yellow brick road" end up in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, every Labor Day weekend for their annual symposium sponsored by – who else? – the Kansas City Fed. (Who can forget Judy Garland saying to her little dog, "Toto, I've got a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore," in the 1939 movie, The Wizard of Oz?)

The Jackson Hole Resort serves as the Federal Reserve's equivalent of the Emerald City, as Fed governors and presidents meet with central bankers and economists from around the world to discuss economic issues. This year, the symposium focused on housing and monetary policy. Usually, the Fed chairman kicks off the symposium and, this year, the new chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, did the honors. He closed his speech with these words:

"The interaction of housing, housing finance, and economic activity has for years been of central importance for understanding the behavior of the economy, and it will continue to be central to our thinking as we try to anticipate economic and financial developments."

Then came the other speeches. And it seems that some of the guests in Emerald City were waiting for their chance to pull back the curtain and prove that the Wonderful Wizard of Oz isn't such a wizard after all. Bloomberg reported that "Federal Reserve officials, wrestling with a housing recession that jeopardizes U.S. growth, got an earful from critics at a weekend retreat, arguing they should use regulation and interest rates to prevent asset-price bubbles."

Apparently, one academic paper presented at Jackson Hole graded the Fed an 'F' for the way it has handled the repercussions from the rise and fall of the housing market.

Truth be told, these folks are a little late to the table as critics of the Fed. We're glad they're joining us, but here's what they still haven't learned: It isn't because the Federal Reserve messes up by allowing credit, asset and stock bubbles to form that it's not a wizard. The Federal Reserve isn't a wizard for one particular reason that it doesn't want anybody to know – and that is that the Fed doesn't lead the financial markets, it follows them.

People everywhere want to believe in the Fed's wizardry. But all this talk about how the Fed will be able to help the U.S. economy and hold up the markets by cutting rates now is as much hooey as the Wizard of Oz promising Dorothy, the Scarecrow, the Tin Man and the Cowardly Lion that he could give them what they wanted: a return to Kansas, a brain, a heart, and courage. Because when the Fed does do something, it always comes after the markets have already made their moves.

If you don't believe it, you should look at one chart from the most recent Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. It compares the movements in the Fed Funds rate with the movements of the 3-month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield. What does it reveal? That the Fed has followed the T-Bill yield up and down every step of the way since 2000. And the interesting question becomes this: Since the T-bill yield has dropped nearly two points since February, how soon will the Fed cut its rate to follow the market's lead this time?

[Editor's note: You can see this chart and read the Special Section it appears in by accessing the free report, The Unwonderful Wizardry of the Fed.]

We've got our own brains, heart and courage here at Elliott Wave International, and we've used them to explain over and over again that putting faith in the Fed to turn around the markets and the economy is blind faith indeed.

"This blind faith in the Fed's power to hold up the economy and stocks epitomizes the following definition of magic offered by Teller of the illusionist and comedy team of Penn and Teller: a 'theatrical linking of a cause with an effect that has no basis in physical reality, but that – in our hearts – ought to be.'" [September 2007, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast]

Because, you see, what makes the markets move has less to do with what the unwizardly Fed does and more with changes in the mass psychology of all the people investing in those markets. The Elliott Wave Principle describes how bullish and bearish trends in the financial markets reflect changes in social mood, from positive to negative and back again. To extend the metaphor: The Fed can't affect social mood anymore than the Wonderful Wizard of Oz could change the direction of the wind that brought his hot air balloon to the Land of Oz in the first place.

As our EWI analysts write, "With respect to the timing of the Federal Reserve Board rate cuts, we need to reiterate one key point. The market, not the Fed, sets rates." Being able to understand this information puts you one step closer to clicking your ruby red shoes together and whispering those magic words: "There's no place like home." Once you land back in Kansas, your eyes will open, and you will see that an unwarranted faith in the Fed was just a bad dream.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.

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Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

Regret Will Kill Your Forex Account

2008-01-09T09:15:00.000-08:00

OK, so you just pulled the trigger on a trade and every bone in your body told you not to. You violated the rules dictated in your trade plan and you watched a small profit immediately turn into a major loss.

Sound familiar? What do you do?

You get over it, that’s what you do! Regret over a bad trade will eat your account from the inside out. Regret is a more powerful emotion than most traders recognize. It is like the unwanted guest that keeps living off of your bank account until there is no more left. It takes most traders into a tailspin that they will never recover. It can lead to dangerous psychological results such as failure to pull the trigger over even worse, paralysis by analysis.

“Yeah, but…” (I will save the disempowerment of this statement for another day)

It’s not easy putting those emotions aside when your money is on the line. That’s why they called it trading, folks. In Forex someone is on the other side of the trade controlling their emotions and eventually controlling your account balance. If you want to find consistency you must never let regret live in your trading experience.

Here’s what I do to combat this debilitating emotion … I get over it! How do I do this? I simply perform a post mortem of my bad trades (I still have them every now and then) and keep a detailed journal. Over time I began to recognize my personal triggers and simply tweaked my trade plan to be a more proactive currency trader and avoid the situations that led to the bad trade in the first place, in my instance over-trading or being tired.

What trader do I model my approach after? The answer may surprise you!

The answer is Tiger Woods.

I play golf, so you could imagine I am a huge fan of Tiger Woods. There are a lot of similarities between golf and trading. Both venues offer a look at who we are as a person, raw and uncensored. Both live in the world of risk and reward.

I admire Tiger Woods skill as a golfer, but even more so his mental toughness. Next time you watch Tiger Wood hit a bad shot follow his reaction. His immediate reaction is to get upset, really upset. Then count 5 seconds. His expressions and demeanor will have returned to one of focus and concentration.

And the funny thing is that is doesn’t matter what kind of prize money is online. He takes the same approach to every golf shot, in every tournament.

Let’s translate that to trading. Do you give yourself 5 seconds to get over a bad trade? Do you take the same approach to every trade?

Stop living in the world of regret and only think about the possibilities of wining trades and you will find your experiences trading the Forex market one filled with achievement and success.

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending

2008-01-07T16:00:00.000-08:00

If you're wondering how the housing market collapse in the US will impact your favorite Central Banker (and interest rates), here's an interesting article to help support your fundamental Forex analysis:

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Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending

By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International

January 7, 2008

In the bleak midwinter, Frosty wind made moan,Earth stood hard as iron, Water like a stone…(From "A Christmas Carol" by Christina Rossetti)
Shawn Colvin sings a beautiful song based on this poem by Christina Rossetti, reminding us of the bleakness of midwinter. That is exactly where the housing market seems to be now – facing its very own bleak midwinter of falling prices, rising mortgage rates and growing inventories.

The latest report of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index shows that the price of houses fell 6.7% in October, year over year. That is the largest year-to-year decline drop since April 1991.

Think of it – if you had bought a home for $300,000 in October 2006, it is now worth about $280,000. And suppose you just got a new job and need to move? You are going to have trouble selling it at that price, too, thanks to so many foreclosed homes on the market. One realtor in Phoenix explained to a Wall Street Journal reporter that local residents are now competing with foreclosed homes selling for $50,000 to $100,000 less than other houses on the market. "The sellers now are having to reduce their prices by 20% to 30% to compete," she says. (Wall Street Journal, "Pace of Decline in Home Prices Sets a Record," 12/27/07)

At a meeting of the New York Society of Security Analysts on January 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said this about the U.S. economy: "We will likely have further indications of slower growth in the weeks and months ahead.''

Paulson and central bankers at the U.S. Federal Reserve recognize that they, too, face their own bleak financial midwinter. It's not just the mayhem brought on by the subprime mortgage debacle, the implosion of the housing market and the ensuing credit crunch; nor is it that the U.S. economy lurches toward a recession and hard times.

No, it is something bigger than that. Public opinion or social mood, as we call it here at Elliott Wave International, has shifted from positive to negative. When that happens, financial heroes find themselves falling from their pedestals onto frozen earth hard as iron.

Exhibit A - The headline of a recent article on Bloomberg: "Paulson Gets Diminishing Return with Bush, Like Powell, O'Neill" and the lead: "Henry Paulson escaped the Nixon White House with his reputation enhanced. He won't be so lucky this time around."

Exhibit B - The lead from a recent column by David Ignatius in the Washington Post:
"When airport rescue crews are worried that a damaged plane may have a crash landing, they sometimes spread the runway with foam to reduce the probability of fire on impact. That's what the Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing in pumping liquidity into severely damaged financial markets. Make no mistake: The central bankers' announcement Wednesday of a new coordinated effort to pump cash into the global financial system is a sign of their nervousness…."
Nervousness is in the air now. Investors are anxious about the markets; everyone is worried about the housing market.

Our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast December issue explains how housing starts (and stops) are intimately tied to recessions: "One key indicator of success in pre-dating economic downturns is housing starts, which are approaching the 1-million-a-month level that has preceded all recessions of the last 40 years."

And the Fed is nervous, too. So much so that it announced a credit giveaway with four other major central banks (the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank) in mid-December to try to bolster the financial system and the banks that keep it humming. The Fed reports that banks have been stepping up to its auction window each week to purchase $20 billion. Unfortunately for the banks, most of this "liquidity" isn't that liquid. It has to be paid back within 30 days, with interest of about 4.65%.

Editor's note: Elliott Wave International has agreed to make available to our readers a 2-1/2-page excerpt from Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist in which he describes exactly how the Fed's latest effort to shore up banks' balance sheets has become "High Noon for the Fed's Credibility." Click here to read the Theorist excerpt.

Just how bleak is the future for central bankers if this recently implemented plan doesn't work? Bob Prechter explains in his just-published Theorist:

"Nevertheless, this is probably the single most important central-bank pronouncement yet. But it is not significant for the reasons people think. By far most people take such pronouncements at face value, presume that what the authorities promise will happen and reason from there. But the tremendous significance of this seismic engagement of the monetary jawbone is that if this announcement fails to restore confidence, central bankers' credibility will evaporate."

"At least that's the way historians will play it. But of course, the true causality, as elucidated by socionomics, is that an evaporation of confidence will make the central bankers' plans fail. The outcome is predicated on psychology."

The "socionomics" Prechter refers to is a new social science he has introduced that studies how humans behave in groups within contexts of uncertainty – where fluctuations in social mood motivate social actions. It explains that rather than an event happening that affects social mood (for example, falling home prices make people feel bad), what really happens is that social mood changes first from positive to negative and then lousy things happen (for example, unhappy people make home prices fall). If you can adopt this point of view, then you can see that, in poetic terms, we are fast approaching a bleak midwinter for the economy and the financial markets.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.

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Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney.com

A Forex Trader’s Lifestyle

2008-01-03T09:11:00.000-08:00

Whether you are a novice Forex trader or a seasoned veteran one aspect you must always take into account is to ensure your lifestyle supports successful trading. Forex trading is no different from any other endeavor in life. Whether you are employee, employer or self-employed you must take the time and effort to ensure your environment is conducive to your success.

Take a look at your surroundings and make sure your lifestyle supports you being a successful Forex trader. Take in all the factors of success (how YOU define success) evaluate your factors to make sure your trading is:

Specific – Do you have specific trading goals and objectives? Do you have a trading plan? Ask yourself is your plan to general?

Measurable – Do you have systems in place to objectively measure your performance? If you don’t know your numbers then do you really have a trading business?

Has a Timeline – Do you have a timeline for which you are measuring your goals and objectives against?

Controllable – There are many aspects in Forex trading you can’t control, ensure that the areas your can control are firmly defined and managed with discipline.

Programmed Into Your Lifestyle – Are your Forex trading activities programmed and congruent with your lifestyle? Balance is important so make sure this passes the test!

Taken in Small Steps - This business is a marathon and not a sprint. Start off with small steps and build. The best practice trading principals do not change with account size.

Accountable – Forex trading (or any trading for that matter) can be such an isolated activity. Find ways to have others participate and hold you accountable for your goals. Make it real and measurable!

True Forex success is built through smart work and dedication. By establishing the trading lifestyle that best supports your personality will guarantee prolonged success. Remember, it is your Forex Journey. Be sure you enjoy the ride!

Happy Trading!!

Simple Forex strategies

2008-01-03T00:14:00.000-08:00

I havent't recently updated this blog because, i am currently more focused on Stock Market, and system for sports betting which i recently created. When i will finish it, i wil give you link to this system, i suppose it will be free till the end of the season.

Anyway, simple forex strategies, what i mean by that? In my mind these are strategies that are very simple :). I often see guys with super advanced entry strategies. They use MACD, RSI, ADX, 10 different MAs and EMAs, Fibbonaci retracement, Elliot Waves to predict the best entry point.

I think it's funny.

Because often these guys do not realize that actually there are only two types of indicators.

Trend following - indicates whatever Market is in up or down trend (MACD for example)
Momentum - tells you if Market is overbought or oversold (RSI)

There are also Volume and Volatility indicators but they are not suitable for Forex market. So if you use more then 2 indicators then you can right now narrow your choice down to only two.

How many oscillators do i use? I use none or zero, so in my mind forex strategy with 2 indicators is still complex strategy. Traders often say that you need a lot of indicators to get rid of false signal. But what i found out when i started using many tools was that i got as many signals that i should take LONG position as for SHORT position. So, keep in mind the old saying: sometimes less is more.

After eliminating all oscillators we are left with very simple tools:

trend lines, as well as support and resistance levels
Fibbonacci retracement

When i trade Forex i also use two other tools the are not as much popular as MACD, RSI but they work for me.

Andrews' Pitchfork
Standard Deviation Channel

All of them, help me to determine trend, because what forex trading really comes down to is:

Determine trend, but do NOT try to predict future, it is impossible. determine trend based on what you already have on the chart. There are at least three types of trend: up, down, consolidation, i think i already said it, but it is worth repeating over and over.

Determine Take Profit and Stop Loss, GO IN. That's it.

Ok so to sum this up. You can build a very complex strategy or system if it works for you, it didn't work for me at all. But remember, do not underestimate value and importance of very simple tools like trend lines, fibbonacci retracement and standard deviation channels.

The ONLY Difference Between Professional Traders and Amateurs Is ...

2007-12-31T11:51:00.000-08:00

He's a blog posting from one of my friends on mySpace, Barry. To close the year I couldn't resist posting this for thought!

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Here's a revelation that changed my trading forever:

"Successful trading is imply a business of not making mistakes."

That has become such a cornerstone to my trading that I actually framed that saying and put it on my wall over my trading flat screens.

One of the most productive things you can do to become a profitable trader is to make a list of your most common mistakes.

Awareness is the first step.

Then watch your behavior and don't allow yourself to make those mistakes any more.
Each of us has her or his own challenges, so you must make your own list.

But to get you started, I'll expose my sins and share with you what have been my most common mistakes over the years. This is the official list of my own 7 most common mistakes. Perhaps you'll find it helpful:

1. Missing trades. When my setup occurs I need to make sure I'm aware of it and haven't been distracted by chat rooms, email, phone calls or lulled into boredom by a consolidating market.
I also need to make sure I don't hesitate to pull the trigger when I do see my setups.

2. Trading reversals that are not in extended trends and during which the internal market energy has not reversed.

3. Trading only 1 time frame without the confirmation of a longer term chart.

4. Trading while tired.

5. Over trading. Never try to make up for losses or missed trades. Never trade out of boredom. Never take any trade that doesn't match my rules 100%.

6. Not taking profits on my first exit soon enough. This is critical to adjust my cost position in the trade and therefore keep losses small.

7. Exiting my entire position too soon. I must keep at least part of my position alive until the energy of the trade has shifted so that I can ride the big moves.

Well, that's my confession.

Now you know my sins, but I imagine they're not so different than yours.

Have you committed these trading sins ... or your own unique ones?

The only solution is to REPENT!

That doesn't simply mean to say you're sorry.

It means to change your behavior.

Many people treat trading as:
an intellectual exercise.
a mathematical challenge.
or a research project.

Actually it's more about managing your behavior than anything else ... of course that's often the most difficult thing of all!

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I couldn't have said it better!

Barry can be found at: http://www.myspace.com/topdogtrading

Happy New Year !!

Forex Journey

Are you a forex trader or a gambler?

2007-12-28T12:32:00.000-08:00

Here's an article I found in my files. Given the approach of the New Year, now is an excellent time to re-enforce those good trading habits and thoughts ... enjoy!!

How many pips do you need to be wealthy? The answer may surprise you.

A very common thought and question among us forex traders. Of course this is variable in desires; however it is a good idea to put things into perspective. In reality, the following is what separates the gamblers from the traders.

About 2 years ago I sent out a similar letter that changed the outlook and the lives of many traders. While most at the time were mini-traders a simple 25 pip gain equated to a mere $25.00. "How can I live off of that?" I was repeatedly asked. It didn't take long to put this into perspective.

Determining Percent Return

Profits are one thing, percent return is another. Monthly profits may add up to look nice or not so nice, but what is the actual return? I am sure we have all heard traders say, "I made 1,000 pips last month." OK.. what was your percent return? Not only for one month, but for the life of your trading.

Return Calculation

The simple return calculation is used to determine your return on an investment after you sold it. Or in this case, the profits after closing trades over a period of time.

Here is the formula:

Net Proceeds /Cost Basis - 1 x 100

Let's run through a simple example.

Suppose you traded one standard forex contract for a profit of 200 pips. This would be a raw profit of $2,000. The cost in this case was the spread and the margin needed to secure the contract; the most common margin is 100:1. Thus it cost a temporary, $1,000 to secure this contract. We say temporary because we all know we would not trade without a stop loss, most likely the stop would have been worth about $250.

Calculation:

Net Proceeds = $2000

Cost Basis = $20 (spread) + $1,000 margin

($2,000 /$1,020 - 1) x 100 = 96% (Just under 100% in a single 30 days)

So, if you are trading with a 100:1 margin and averaging around 200 pips per month, you are close to a 100% return per month.

What about per year?

Try it, you will be amazed. Hint: Don't forget to compound.

Take Home Message

Trade conservatively, a few 25 pip trades per week (300 pips per month) on a single lot can give you a return of just under 200% a month. Build your account slowly, trade with the same level of caution, just add more lots. This is the best method, the most realistic method and the lowest stress method of enjoying the rewards of forex.

John Keister

ForexInterBank

http://www.forexinterbank.com

Happy Trading from ForexJourney.com!!

Clarity

2007-12-27T10:52:00.000-08:00

Clarity. This is my word, my mission for 2008. I am going (notice I did not say “try to”), let me repeat, I am going to achieve clarity in all aspects of life including my trading. As many of my readers know I had a very eventful 2007. I became a dad for the first time. This has brought a new meaning to life. One that many of my friends have mentioned, but one I truly didn’t understand until I experienced it myself. It has been the greatest single joy of my life, not to mention a major adjustment in trading schedule.

I define have one simple New Year’s resolution that will permeate my life and my trading – seek clarity in every aspect of my Forex trading and perform every action with intent!

I know what you are thinking; it seems kind of pie in the sky, but think about it. We should approach all our actions with clarity and intent. Design the outcome well before we enter a currency trade. Keeping mental focus it what really separates long term profits and losses.

I encourage each of you to take the time now and revisit your Forex trading plan. Learn from your mistakes, because they are your most valuable teachers. My goal is to always present clear intent into my Forex trading in 2008, what’s your intent?

Happy New Year’s from ForexJourney.com

Why the Fed is Such a Lousy Wizard of Oz

2007-12-01T17:54:00.000-08:00

Interesting article by Susan C. Walker - check it out!

By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International
September 7, 2007

Central bankers who "follow the yellow brick road" end up in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, every Labor Day weekend for their annual symposium sponsored by – who else? – the Kansas City Fed. (Who can forget Judy Garland saying to her little dog, "Toto, I've got a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore," in the 1939 movie, The Wizard of Oz?)

The Jackson Hole Resort serves as the Federal Reserve's equivalent of the Emerald City, as Fed governors and presidents meet with central bankers and economists from around the world to discuss economic issues. This year, the symposium focused on housing and monetary policy. Usually, the Fed chairman kicks off the symposium and, this year, the new chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, did the honors. He closed his speech with these words:

"The interaction of housing, housing finance, and economic activity has for years been of central importance for understanding the behavior of the economy, and it will continue to be central to our thinking as we try to anticipate economic and financial developments."

Then came the other speeches. And it seems that some of the guests in Emerald City were waiting for their chance to pull back the curtain and prove that the Wonderful Wizard of Oz isn't such a wizard after all. Bloomberg reported that "Federal Reserve officials, wrestling with a housing recession that jeopardizes U.S. growth, got an earful from critics at a weekend retreat, arguing they should use regulation and interest rates to prevent asset-price bubbles." Apparently, one academic paper presented at Jackson Hole graded the Fed an 'F' for the way it has handled the repercussions from the rise and fall of the housing market.

Truth be told, these folks are a little late to the table as critics of the Fed. We're glad they're joining us, but here's what they still haven't learned: It isn't because the Federal Reserve messes up by allowing credit, asset and stock bubbles to form that it's not a wizard. The Federal Reserve isn't a wizard for one particular reason that it doesn't want anybody to know – and that is that the Fed doesn't lead the financial markets, it follows them.

People everywhere want to believe in the Fed's wizardry. But all this talk about how the Fed will be able to help the U.S. economy and hold up the markets by cutting rates now is as much hooey as the Wizard of Oz promising Dorothy, the Scarecrow, the Tin Man and the Cowardly Lion that he could give them what they wanted: a return to Kansas, a brain, a heart, and courage. Because when the Fed does do something, it always comes after the markets have already made their moves.

If you don't believe it, you should look at one chart from the most recent Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. It compares the movements in the Fed Funds rate with the movements of the 3-month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield. What does it reveal? That the Fed has followed the T-Bill yield up and down every step of the way since 2000. And the interesting question becomes this: Since the T-bill yield has dropped nearly two points since February, how soon will the Fed cut its rate to follow the market's lead this time?

[Editor's note: You can see this chart and read the Special Section it appears in by accessing the free report, The Unwonderful Wizardry of the Fed.]

We've got our own brains, heart and courage here at Elliott Wave International, and we've used them to explain over and over again that putting faith in the Fed to turn around the markets and the economy is blind faith indeed.

"This blind faith in the Fed's power to hold up the economy and stocks epitomizes the following definition of magic offered by Teller of the illusionist and comedy team of Penn and Teller: a 'theatrical linking of a cause with an effect that has no basis in physical reality, but that – in our hearts – ought to be.'" [September 2007, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast]

Because, you see, what makes the markets move has less to do with what the unwizardly Fed does and more with changes in the mass psychology of all the people investing in those markets. The Elliott Wave Principle describes how bullish and bearish trends in the financial markets reflect changes in social mood, from positive to negative and back again. To extend the metaphor: The Fed can't affect social mood anymore than the Wonderful Wizard of Oz could change the direction of the wind that brought his hot air balloon to the Land of Oz in the first place.

As our EWI analysts write, "With respect to the timing of the Federal Reserve Board rate cuts, we need to reiterate one key point. The market, not the Fed, sets rates." Being able to understand this information puts you one step closer to clicking your ruby red shoes together and whispering those magic words: "There's no place like home." Once you land back in Kansas, your eyes will open, and you will see that an unwarranted faith in the Fed was just a bad dream.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.

Forex Journey

FX Trade Central

Hedging -Zero Risk

2007-11-16T20:18:00.000-08:00

Hedging -Zero Risk

Hedging is defined as holding two or more positions at the same time, where the purpose is to offset the losses in the first position by the gains received from the other position.

Usual hedging is to open a position for a currency A, then opening a reverse for this position on the same currency A. This type of hedging protects the trader from getting a margin call, as the second position will gain if the first loses, and vice versa.

However, traders developed more hedging techniques in order to try to benefit form hedging and make profits instead of just to offset losses.
In this page, we will discuss, some of the hedging techniques.

1. 100% Hedging.
This technique is the safest ever, and the most profitable of all hedging techniques while keeping minimal risks. This technique uses the arbitrage of interest rates (roll over rates) between brokers. In this type of hedging you will need to use two brokers.

One broker which pays or charges interest at end of day, and the other should not charge or pay interest. However, in such cases the trader should try to maximize your profits, or in other words to benefit the utmost of this type of hedging.

The main idea about this type of hedging is to open a position of currency X at a broker which will pay you a high interest for every night the position is carried, and to open a reverse of that position for the same currency X with the broker that does not charge interest for carrying the trade. This way you will gain the interest or rollover that is credited to your account.

However there are many factors that you should take into consideration.
a. The currency to use. The best pair to use is the GBPJPY, because at the time of writing this article, the interest credited to your account will be 24 usd for every 1 regular long lot you have. However you should check with your broker because each broker credits a different amount.

The range can be from $10 to $26.
b. The interest free broker. This is the hardest part. Before you open your account with such a broker, you should check the following: i. Does the broker allow opening the position for an unlimited time? ii. Does the broker charge commissions?

Some brokers charge $5 flat every night for each lot held, this is a good thing, although it seems not. Because, when the broker charges you money for keeping your position, the your broker will likely let you hold your position indefinitely.
c. Equity of your account. Hedging requires lots of money. For example, if you want to use the GBPJPY, you will need 20,000USD in each account. This is very necessary because the max monthly range for GBPJPY in the last few years was 2000 pips.

You do not want one of your accounts to get a margin call. Do not forget that when you open your 2 positions at the 2 brokers, you will pay the spread, which is around 16 pips together. If you are using 1 regular lot, then this is around 145 usd.

So you will enter the trades, losing 145 usd. So you will need the first 6 days just to cover the spread cost. Thus if you get a margin call again, you will need to close your other position, and then transfer money to your other account, and then re-open the positions. Every time this happens, you will lose 145 usd!

It is very important not to get a margin call. This can be maintained by a large equity, or a fast efficient way to transfer money between brokers.
d. Money management. One of the best ways to manage such an account is to monthly withdraw profits and balancing your positions.

This can be done by withdrawing the excess from one account, take out the profits, and depositing the excess into the losing account to balance them. However, this can be costly.

You should also check with your broker if he allows withdrawals while your position is still open. One efficient way of doing this is using the brokerage service withdrawals which is provided by third party companies.

How To Recognize a Financial Mania When You're Smack Dab in the Middle of One

2007-11-16T17:41:00.000-08:00

By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International
November 12, 2007

When you're caught in the middle of a bad storm, you don't really care whether it's a tropical depression or a full-strength hurricane. You just know you're hanging on for dear life. The same idea applies to financial markets. When a market is trending up strongly, it's hard to tell whether it's just a bull market or a more dangerous financial mania.

The recent tremendous ride up for global and U.S. financial markets, including the Dow, looks and feels more like a mania than a mere bull, says Elliott Wave International analyst Peter Kendall. This distinction is important to recognize in the rising stage, because manias always result in a crash that takes them back beneath their starting point.

Kendall recently published his research into current financial manias throughout the world in SFO (Stocks, Futures and Options) magazine. The article, titled "Financial Manias and the Trade of a Lifetime," suggests an even more stunning finish for the current manias: "The speed and global scope of the unfolding credit crisis suggest that most of the fast-rising markets of the last decade will crash in unison," he writes.

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Editor's note: Elliott Wave International invites you to read the full five-page article with charts from the October 2007 SFO magazine by Elliott Wave International's Pete Kendall called "Financial Manias and the Trade of a Lifetime."

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As co-editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, Kendall searches for trends that help traders to move in and out of markets. By comparing other historic manias with the impressive rise of the DJIA since the late 1970s, he focuses on the skyscraper pattern that they all have in common. The four historical manias are the Dutch Tulip mania of the 1630s, the South Sea bubble of 1720, the U.S. stock crash of 1921-1932 and the dot.com bust of the 1990s and early 2000s. Once you can see the similarities, you will be better prepared to face the music when the crash comes. As Kendall writes, "once the belief that the markets will always rise becomes widespread, it actually signals the start of a price swing that tends to be a career-breaker for any trader who tries to oppose it."

He also discusses current manias, such as the Nikkei, which has yet to return to its start after a manic rise to its all-time high in December 1989, and the Dow, which reversed from its rise in 2000 but made a U-turn in 2002. The starting point for the Dow's mania as shown in the chart included in the article is at the 1000 level.

Kendall, who is also writing a book about financial manias, titled The Mania Chronicles, describes five telltale signs that help an investor to tell the difference between a regular bull market and a mania. It's a mania if:

1. There is no upside resistance, and rising prices seem to be perpetual.
2. Everyone in the market looks like an expert.
3. There is a flight from quality investments to riskier investments.
4. As financial bubbles pop in one area, they bubble up in others.
5. The crash after the peak takes back all the gains the mania made.

No. 5 can be viewed only with hindsight. But the first four signs provide essential clues to what's shaping up in the markets.

"By studying past mania experiences, traders can gain valuable insight into the collective emotions that drive their markets," writes Kendall. "It's possible to make significant money in the advancing stages of a mania with no knowledge of its existence. But there is nothing like recognizing a mania for what it is in real time to help a trader keep those gains and deal with the relentless crash after it peaks."

In the last part of the SFO article, he asks the key question, Are we at the peak yet? Find out his answer by reading the whole article for yourself.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.

-New Trader Strategy..

2007-10-07T01:03:00.000-07:00

Here I will take a simple system and apply it everyday to the Forex market. By following along, I hope that you'll be able to use this as a guide for following your own trading system each and every day. But before you follow along, here is a little background on the system that I will be trading. Actually this syetem has been widely spread over the internet but I want to tell you that it really works. The first system I used for trading is the following system.

The Main Trend Is Your Friend

The main concept of the theory is to catch small trends during the day while avoiding fakeouts. Simple right? Wrong! It's easier said than done. I will be making my trades off of a 15 minute chart, but I will be using a 4hr. chart to give me my main trend. If my 4hr. chart is trending up, then I will only be looking to go long on the 15 minute chart. On the other hand, if my 4hr. chart is trending down, then I will only be looking to go short on the 15 minute chart. By looking at the main trend first, I will have a better chance for a winning trade by moving along with the current market direction.

4hr. Chart Settings:

• 5 EMA applied to the close
• 10 EMA applied to the close
• Stochastics (10,3,3)
• RSI (9)

After establishing the main trend , it's time to look for trade entries on the 15 minute chart. The 15 minute chart looks similar to the 4hr. chart, except for the fact that I have added a MACD histogram. The trade entry rules are simple:

The 15 Minute Chart

• 5 EMA applied to the close
• 10 EMA applied to the close
• RSI (9)
• Stochastics (10,3,3)
• MACD Histogram (12,26,9)

Long Signal:

• 5 EMA must cross above the 10 EMA (Indicated on chart by a black candle)
• RSI must be greater than 50
• Stochastics must be headed up and not in overbought territory
• MACD histogram must go from negative to positive OR be negative and start
to increase value. (We want to catch trends early so the MACD histogram
must be negative)

Short Signal:

• 5 EMA must cross below the 10 EMA (Indicated on chart by
a purple candle)
• RSI must be less than 50
• Stochastics must be headed down and not in oversold territory
• MACD histogram must go from positive to negative OR be positive
and start to decrease in value. (We want to catch trends early
so the MACD histogram must be positive)

Stop Losses

There is not a hard number that I use for a stop loss. Instead I use either the most recent swing low (for long trades) or the most recent swing high (for short trades) as my stop loss. Using the examples above, this is where I would place my stops:

In these examples, the stop losses were not that wide. However, there will be times when the most recent swing high or low is several pips away from your entry. This is where you must be careful. If the stop is too wide for you to keep within your money management rules, simply stay out of the market! Trust me, there will always be another trade later. Even if that trade happens to win a gazillion pips, you should never compromise or doubt your decision to follow strict money management.

Happy trading

The "95% of all Forex traders fail" Lie!

2007-09-14T22:19:00.000-07:00

I refer 95% lie to sentence: “95% of traders fail”. Although this are calculations made by brokers, based on their account history. I suppose those are accounts that were blown out by newbie traders.

Anyway I have to admit that it is true that 95% of account ends up empty within less then three months. But hose who were trading them … were they really traders? I think not, in my opinion they were gold diggers or just uninformed fools.

It happens often that after forex success story in newspaper or magazine, people without knowing anything about forex think: “Hey this is easy way to make money! If that guy in the newspaper made millions, I can make at least few thousands I am not stupid”. I don’t have to tell you how wrong this guy is. He takes loan, and starts trading, within 3 months he has got no money but a big loan to pay.

I believe this are the people who goes by 95% rule. But it doesn’t have to be that way. You can make money, but you have to understand it is not going to happen overnight. Probably not even within two years. But it is possible.

What it takes to become trader? In my opinion the only difference between successful and unsuccessful trader is … experience. All you need to do is trade and get some experience.

But there is something more important. As you may lack successes within this two years it is crucial to believe that you can really do it, that it is possible to achieve success. If you have problem with that then, do yourself a favor and buy Anthony Robbins “Awaken the giant within” great book on positive mindset.

-Less Trade but More Pips.

2007-09-14T01:34:00.000-07:00

Do you want to trade real forex but you don’t have much time in front of your desktop ? Don’t worry ! we still have solutions to this problem. Normally I prefer to trade long period to short period except when I want to play game I will use scalping system.he..he..he..

Long trading will enable you to have more time to relax and to do other business, and the system that I will write down here is a very simple one, not extraordinary system, but according to some traders they can profit 2500 – 3500 pips per month using the strategy…..

By the way….have you ever got 2000 pips per month ? Oh… what a pity ……. Last year I ever got 3000 pips in one week…yes one week.…..he..he..he… eventhough I never learnt Forex at the University….

And the pairs you can trade using this system are : : GJ,GU,EU,AU,UJ,UChf,UCad,NU and EJ.

Remember traders, we only have 4-6 entry point for every pair a month with approx. 100-200 nice pips each.

We must patience to wait those entry points, so keep smiling…and don’t worry, you will make money. Iam sure about that !.

Here is the tool you need.

Metatrader4
EMA5 Red
EMA 15 yellow
EMA 50 White

MACD (5,13,1):
Fast EMA 5
Slow EMA 13
MACD SMA 1

Momentum value 10
QQE
TF : 4 hrs

Buy :
When the 5 Ema crossed 50 upward that is the first signal. Please check the MACD, the bar must be climbing up. after 15 crossed 50 the signal is 98% bullish.

Please open your buy there with TP1 80 pips and lock profit for 50 pips after TP touched and let the price go to TP2 180 pips.

Usually MACD, QQE and momentum are crossed up at the same time, and that is a signal to upload your weapon.

Patience traders as we are trading in 4h time frame. Noo need to Hurry.

MACD : Please draw a red line in zero line.

QQE, blue crossover upward means bullish and the time QQE crossover the MACD is going up and so is momentum. That means get ready to open long position and I suggest that you wait for 5EMA to cross 50 EMA for more safe. This Condition guarantee 100-250 pips bro.

That means Bullish when bar forms upper the blue line and bearish if it forms below the blue line.

In Forex Trading patience is the most important thing, we trade less doesn't mean less pips, but on the other hand less trade could be more pips.

Happy trading.

Scalping..

2007-09-06T07:24:00.000-07:00

Many traders assumed that Scalping is not a good way of getting pips. I do never know what the reasons behind the statement. What I know is scalping can give me many profits... I repeat once more ; many pips in a very short time.

What we have to remember is a game...Have you ever played game ?: Nintendo or packman or anything ? What we need is only focus...focus...in a very short period of time but it's very amazing. It can be 2 minutes...3 minutes or five minutes per trading. Normally we can get only peanuts not a big fish ( 5 or 10 pips per trading ). But can you imagine if you can trade 20 times x 10 pips in an hour ? 200 pips right ? He...he..he..

And I myself assume that Scalping is a game....pips game..I get get a lot of pips while I was playing game..you don't believe me ? I will tell you later. Take no care what people say...a forex system or not.

Trading forex is not a science where you should know everything in sequence or where you can create a scientific formula. Forex is much related with mechanism...market mechanism, Where my President and your President play golf together, have coffee together and then...Boooom.....a currency skyrockets... He..he..he...

If you want to play game....let's start now and get ready:

-Prepare Forex Mini Account (only 0.5 dollar per pip) where you can perform
instant execution.

-Prepare 1 minute chart (not daily chart)
-Prepare Bolinger Band ( default setting)
-Prepare Zig Zag indicator ( already attached to Metatrader indicator)
-Prepare RSI ( 14 )
-Prepare your cigarettes......he..he..( Iam smoking now)

Look at the chart..sometimed you have to combine ZigZag indicator with RSI. If RSI > 50 means GO LONG and if RSI < 50 means GO SHORT.

I suggest you to use Mini account in fxegypt.com ( it can be one cent per pip) just to make you familiar with the 'system' before you go higher. And never use demo account, you will never be serious...Just let the ghost use demo account..not you...

Iam very sure that you will enjoy your game and at the same time you will make profits.

Happy trading.

Elliott Wave Free Week

2007-08-24T09:26:00.000-07:00

Just a reminder:

It's FREE Week at ElliottWave.com!!

Click here and get your FREE content

Free Week End August 29.

Forex Journey Interview on Forex Education

2007-08-24T09:19:00.000-07:00

Hey Team!

Click here to hear a recent interview I did with Interviews with Prosperity on the importance of Forex Education.

Happy Trading!!

Forex Education Tip – 5 Steps to Successful Forex Trading

2007-08-22T12:27:00.000-07:00

Close to 95% of all Forex traders will lose money. We're not just talking about novices, either. Whether you trade Forex for a living, as a hobby or just for fun, odds are against your success. That's a simply astonishing fact. However, the remaining 5% of Forex traders somehow manage to break even and there are those lucky few that actually make money in the currency market – consistently!

Like the TV show says … “How’d they do that, anyway?”

That's the million dollar questions, isn’t it? Countless books, seminars and expos have been hosted to answer this very question. That sad fact is that thousands of books have been written and countless seminars and interviews have been conducted in an attempt to answer the magic questions. The reality of the situation is that there is no magic formula; no one single Holy Grail of Forex trading.

So what do the successful traders do that the rest of us have simple not comprehended. They have mastered a process of winning where they combine and customize several factor to produce consistent results. They have mastered the Process of Trading.

The Process of Trading is:

Strategy > Money Management > Self-Mastery

Here are some simple Forex Education tips to help you master the process of forex trading:

Forex Success Tip #1 – You’ve Got To Have a Plan

You must have a written business plan that will detail all aspects of your trading. When are you going to trade, how much to risk, strategies for entries and exits are just o name a few. To become a consistent (profitable) Forex trader you have to plan your trade sand trade your plan.

Simplicity rules! Don’t make this plan too complicated. One sheet of paper for you mission statement and another for your trading plan should suffice. Anything more is probably too complicated.

Forex Success Tip #2 – Focus on Your Personal Psychology

Knowing yourself will allow you to master the discipline necessary to execute high quality trades with solid money management techniques. Lack of discipline is fatal in Forex trading. Go on a personal journey to identify you attitudes towards risk and money. Get intimate with your strengths and weaknesses as a trader and build in to your trading plan strategies to minimize those weaknesses and maximize your strengths.

Different personalities lend to different trading styles. Get familiar with all the different styles and over time you will begin to gravitate towards one particular style. Don’t fight the urge like I did. I insisted I was a day trader, but had only limited results. I found my winning percentages were much higher when I entered swing trades. Guess what’s my bread and butter strategy now!

Forex Success Tip #3 – Be Realistic About Your Expectations

This is a hard one, I know! I am on the internet every day and the amount of advertising is staggering. Brokers are offering free education (fox in the hen house if you ask me), forums of all different trading styles and points of view. Gurus pushing their system as “the one” that will make you the big bucks. How do you get through all that noise?

Let me tell you loud and clear right now – everyone is right and everyone is wrong. You have to make a personal commitment to become a successful trader, find a trading style that works for you and expect a slow and steady approach to wealth building through Forex.

What works for me may not work for you. Expect to go through an exploratory period where you are learning and at the same time exploring yourself as a trader. Keep an open mind and don’t pay attention to all the noise out there.

Forex Success Tip #4 – Be Patient

Rome was not built in a day and neither will your trading account. In fact, I tell all of my students that while they are studying to become successful Forex traders they should not look solely at their account balance as an indication of success or failure.

By tracking and increasing your percentage of high quality trades you execute is a far better barometer of your progress than your account balance. Cause and effect rule here. Over time when you increase your probabilities through the execution of high quality trades your account balance will respond accordingly.

Keep the focus on the process and with time your results will blow your mind.

Success Tip #5 - Money Management Is Top Priority

I would rather have a shaky strategy and excellent money management techniques than the other way around. This topic warrants its own blog post to do it justice. Limited your exposure (read “risk”) allows for you to stay in the game and allow the laws of probability to work.

Let’s take a casino for an example. They need gamblers to frequent their slot machines to make money. Why? They have a game that has a greater than 50% chance of making money for the house. The more people that play the slots, the greater the casino’s profits.

The casino controls risk by payout tables (always favoring the house!) and increases their probabilities by keeping gamblers at the slot machines (read “free drinks”). As a trader you must limit your risk by committing only 1% - 3% of available capital to a single trade. When you execute enough trades with a high probability strategy you too can clean up like the casinos – but only by staying in the game long term.

In conclusion, Forex trading is not easy. It’s hard work and will test the limits of your patience and perseverance. If anyone tells you otherwise .., buyers beware! It can be a very rewarding and profitable venture if done correctly. In the end it is a profession that requires a learning curve and practical experience, no different than an airline pilot or engineer. Understanding how to approach and learn this game will allow you to reap all the benefits advertised. It is your Forex Education that you will master the Process of Forex Trading.

Happy Trading!!

Forex Education Tip - Stops

2007-08-19T17:14:00.000-07:00

Let me just give you a quick tip about setting stop losses.

I once took a class where I was instructucted to place my stop loss 30 pips below my entry. Why 30 pips I asked? I was told it was an "acceptable" risk. Based on what? I see a lot ot traders basing their risk management strategy on some pre-defined pip value risk without any consideration for support and resistance.

Don't do this!

Like I say - trading Forex is a process and setting your stops is a key component. Your stop should be placed near support and/or resistance based on the charts and not some pre-defined pip value. Caution: stay away from the herd!

Simply:

1. Locate support and/or resistance for your stop
2. Calculate your target to determine a reward-to-risk ratio
3. Determine whether you can afford the trade
4. If all systems are a go then pull the trigger

Setting a pre-defined stop makes no sense if all you can guarantee is to get stop out of your trade and have it eventually go in your direction. Let the market tell you where to protect your trade and when to take profits. This is why 2 traders can look at the same charts, establish the same trade and one trader pull the trigger an the other traders pass.

Follow YOUR trading plan and begin to take your trading to new heights. Your Forex Education is the path to true Forex profits!

Happy Trading!!

Is Paid Forex Education Worth It?

2007-08-14T10:16:00.000-07:00

I am scanning the internet looking for information about how I can be a better trader just like most people out there. I am on a quest looking for each and every golden nugget of information out there on the web. I have alerts set up so Google can email every keyword topic of choice.
I have been getting fired up recently about the amount of just plain bad Forex advice slewed across the web. It is definitely a “buyers beware” market and every word of advice (including mine) should be taken with a grain of salt. Why? Because everything I say and write is based entirely on my own experiences.

One of the topics gaining some momentum is the fact that everyone pitching a Forex product is not a trader, but a marketer and if they were a trader they would be trading and not trying to sell you something.

What a bunch of BS!

Yes, I do believe all the information that one needs to trade the Forex profitably is available free on the internet. I challenge anyone new to Forex to assemble the information, study and execute without any assistance. I would imagine every trader out there has gathered free information and put it to use, but the truly valuable information often is not free!

Example – I read Steve Nison’s books and DVD’s (highly recommended by the way) to gain the necessary insight into candlestick charting. I also paid a couple of hundred of dollars to attend a live seminar. During that seminar Steve Nison made one comment that allowed all of my previous work in candlesticks to click and take my trading to the next level! Was it worth it? Hell yah! That one comment was the only peice of new information I gathered, however it has paid for the seminar 100 times over. Not only that, the opportunity to network with other traders introduced new ideas and approaches that I hadn't thought of previously.

In the end it's a personal decision. After all it's your money. Trading is a profession just being a pilot, a doctor or an engineer. Each requires dedicated training, personal development and instruction to gain proficiency. You would never go to a dentist that learned how to fill cavities on the internet (this information is available there too!), so treat your Forex account the same way.

I am calling all you freebie seekers out! Stop being cheap. Your Forex Education is an investment and not a cost. Cutting corners will only cost you more money in the long run.

Happy Trading!!

Forex Education Tips - Overcoming Fear

2007-08-13T13:50:00.000-07:00

Have you ever been in a situation where you have evaluated the market, saw your strategy set-up perfectly and then just couldn’t pull the trigger? You become paralyzed, unable to move even though you know your high probability set-up has just triggered.

This fear is very real for many traders and very detrimental to your account. Fear is a powerful emotion, distorting fact from fiction and often creating an emotional response. Many experts tell you to trade without emotion, but is that really practical? We are indeed human. Remember the basis for the reaction is real, but the fear usually is not.

Fear blocks your ability to execute high probability trades and we must find strategies to manage our fear. With time comes experience and for traders it is the ultimate super hero for fear.

In the meantime, if you are struggling with fear-based execution challenges here are some simple tips to get you over the hump.

Embrace the Emotion

Acknowledge your emotions. If you find yourself analyzing a trade to the point of paralysis don’t try to ignore the emotions. Separate yourself from this river of negativity. Visualize yourself on the river bank as these torrents of emotions are flowing by. You will gain great awareness to the triggers and learn a lot about who you are as a trader.

Separate Fear from Fact

If you fear pulling the trigger because of loss (what if I am wrong?), that will stop you from enjoying the profits the market may make available to you at any given time. Don’t avoid the action that might cause the loss, but re-frame the problem as fear itself. You have evaluated the market, figured out your reward –to-risk ration and accepted your potential for loss through your stop-loss and money management plan. At this point loss is not the obstacle – fear is. There is no such thing as failure, only feedback and that will guide you to consistent and profitable trading.

Re-Think the Consequences

If your mind is off to the races with all sorts of possibilities what’s the worst that can happen if Murphy’s Law gets enacted during your trade? You have already addressed this in your trading plan. Plan your trade and trade your plan. Again fear is trumped and the only way it can be realized is if you didn’t follow your plan. Sticking to your plan is the clearest way to distinguish between a losing trade, which is just a part of business, and a bad trade which is a career killer!

Act in Spite of Fear

Feel the fear and do it anyway. Return to your mission statement or your “why?” statement. The reasons you trading should be big enough to overcome any possible obstacle your fear emotion can conjure up. Acknowledge the fear and do it anyway. You may not have a winning trade, but you will have executed your plan and over time probability will pay you back.

What is all comes down to is the intangibles of trading. Why do I and so many others drive home discipline-based Forex Education and Training approaches. You will never get rid of fear, but with practice you can turn it into a manageable obstacle and deploy it to your advantage.

Happy Trading!!

Daily..Hour..or Mnts Chart

2007-08-10T02:26:00.000-07:00

When you look at this following screenshot figure, you might be very surprised how can a trader get such big profits. It’s real…and everybody can make it including you !. As I told before that every trader has their own characteristics and discipline. If you want to get “ peanuts” just trade in minutes by using 5 or 10 minutes chart. But if you want to get big fish you got to use long period chart.

Nothing is wrong…5 minutes or 10 minutes and 15 minutes could be used to get the pips. The difference is only fluctuation or whipsaw . Using 5 mnts chart will fluctuate much so that what your indicators show now might be changed in a few minutes. It will be dangerous to the old men and women. He…he..he…. I don’t want to suffer from heart attach just because of small pips. I can not do that.

How is about combining Daily, Hours and Minutes Chart to decide an entry point ?

That’s what we wanna talk now….all the above figure can be reached by combining all time frame chart.: Daily, Hour and Minutes..

Daily chart :

Look at this chart !!!

I use only Support and Resistance Level or
Bolinger Band (20.0.2)
Conclusion : Get the highest point and lowest point.

4 Hour chart :

Look at the chart !!!

I use only
Bolinger Band or Band ( 20.0.2)
MACD2 (12,26,9 ) : Fast MA periode = 12
Slow MA period = 26
Signal MA period = 9

Brain Trend1 Signal : Numbars = 500

Conclusion : You have to wait the signal in the highest and lowest band together with MACD crossing.

That’s all…but we have to wait the same signal or direction with the above daily chart or Direction.

30 Mnts Chart

Look at the chart !!!

I use only :

Bolinger Band or Band : ( 20.0.2)
Brain Trend 2 Signal : : Numbars = 500
RSI : 14
Stochastic : 5,3,3

Conclusion : Here is the entry point:
Red Signal will come up for DOWN and
Black Signal will come up for UP direction.

What you have to remember is 30 minutes chart….The signal will be coming from this chart. Be careful...and watch out....

Here is all the Indicator Colletion.

You can put all the indicator to your Metatrader directory :

C:\Metatrader\expert\indicator\
- Band
- RSI
- Stochastic
- BrainTren1 Signal
- BrainTrens 2 Signal
- MACD2

I hope you can all get big pips without working too hard, right ?

Happy trading

It's easy to get PIPS

2007-08-10T02:24:00.000-07:00

Yestarday's posting I wrote one amazing indicator that give you
incredible pips. Did you use it ? I attached also my real trading
chart using the indicator. I did not tell you a lie, Iam not a
signal provider who just send the numbers but I gave you my weapon
on how to get the pips.

Let's take a look at yesterday's performance as your reflection.

Today the indicators shows an incredile winning pips as I attached here.
Do you use the indicator ? If you don't use it meaning that you are still
looking for uncertain indicators like many other traders. It's so real
that the indicator make pips, you don't have to do many thing but only
follos one single indicator, Single indicator....right.

I try to help the beginnner who read this blog and as a gift for all of
you I give everthing free...free... and free.....

This is my trading chart today. Take a look.

I get many pips..right......

Happy trading.

Let's use this Strategy

2007-08-10T01:33:00.000-07:00

As I told you before that I never created any
single strategy by myself because I can find
many out there for free. The things that I always
remember is just how I use them to make profit.

Never searh for the holy grail, you will never
find it, but a very simple strategy could be
a holy grail if we can use them "nicely". To make
a strategy nicely or friendly to us is just to
ractice it and observe.

Many traders sais that one strategy is profitable
for them but at the same time many traders said
also they loose money with the same strategy.

Let's take a look at this example.

''The Tlatomi Method''

SETUP
1 - 4 Hour chart (This system works best with GBP/USD, GBP/JPY

2 - NonLagMa_v4

Filter=20
Color=1
ColorBarBack=0

SHI_SilverTrendSig

Allbars=0
Otstup=30
Per=9.0

Don't forget to change the colors also (0=blue-1=red)

FX Sniper's Ergodic_CCI_Trigger

pq=4
pr=8
ps=5
trigger=

Notes : For All indicator in Tlatomi you can downloaded
HERE

and template HERE

Enter long when :
1 – a blue dot appears
2 – the ergodic CCI crosses up the trigger line ( blue line
crosses up the red one )
3 – NonLagMa color changes to yellow

Enter short when :
1 – a red dot appears
2 – the ergodic CCI crosses down the trigger line
( red line crosses down the blue one )
3 – NonLagMa color changes to yellow

Exit

Exit when a new dot appears (red if you are long and
blue if you are short). This method gives you mecanicals
trades. Don't hesitate to transform them into a
discretionnay trade after because you can see things
that the system can't.

Sometimes, it will be the difference
between a 30 pips trade and a 300 pips trade. Once you
move your stop to breakeven and add a trailing stop –
you can't wait alittle more time to see what the market
wants to give you.

Stop

In general, I look for previous daily Resistance-Support
but I don't have only one method for my stops.You can also
looks for the high or low of the previous bar.

Remarks

Price enter :

The price enter is the open price of the candle or bars
where the NonLagMa is yellow.

Ergodic_CCI :

The signal is stronger when the FX Sniper's
Ergodic_CCI_Trigge is above 300 or under -300

Note :

Please download Metatrader 4 and insert the
three indicators into: \\metatrader\expert\indicator
and template :\\metatrader\template
You open firstly the template and drag all indicators
to your chart.

Happy trading.

Look at the chart....Get Your PIPS.

2007-08-10T00:49:00.000-07:00

I assumed that most of you have lost your money in Forex
Trading, right ? I never learned Forex Trading at the
University, believe me… because that’s not my subject at
the time. That’s why I don’t care and I don’t know what
really mean “ moving average, slow stocastics, MACD, and
many other educational termination. And I don’t have to
know them either in order to make pips.

I would be very disappointed if some “ experts” in many
Forums talk over all the above termi as if he were
talking to his students at the university. Are you going to be
A teacher of Forex or just pip maker….. Are sure that they
make profits during their trading ? Nonsense….Finally they
will sell you their ‘books”. And the funny thing is that
“they make more money from selling
their books than make pips or profit from their trading”. He…he…..he…….

Four years ago I bought one expensive books which is ticker
than a bible, and what I can found is only the above
terminations….and how they come, how they use but we are not
told how to make pips. Crazy….I spent $250 for the rubbish.

Now Iam going to put money in your pocket….he..he…he sorry …
I will not charge you a cent…

Look at the chart…….that’s money right….

That’s the real chart !
Do you need the indicator ?.......Ok…I’ll give you free..
because I got it free….from my friend….

Here is the rule :

-Each candle on the chart is accompanied by a blue
line or a red line.

-The blue lines indicate a long position whilst the
red lines indicate a short position.

-The coloured lines attach themselves to each candle
at the beginning or during its formation.

-When you notice a new coloured candle after a series
of opposite coloured candles, enter a position as soon
as you notice the colour.

-If you notice a candle with no colour, do nothing.
Maintain your position.

-Place your initial stop loss order just below the most
recent swing low or swing high.

-When you are 50 pips in profit, move stop loss to
break even.

-Exit on opposite coloured candle and reverse your position

That's it! Do you see how simple this trading system is?

-Use in ONE HOUR chart.

Here is the indicator

When you have downloaded the indicator, copy it one
of the following directories (depending on your setup):

C:/Program Files/Metatrader 4/Experts/Indicators
or
C:/Program Files/Strategy Builder FX/Experts/Indicators

Once you have placed the files in the relevant directory
depending on your setup), restart the trading software
and look for the indicator under "Custom Indicators".
Drag it to the relevant charts and enjoy better profits
from that point on.

Note :
Moving Average

Happy trading.

Forex Education - Fully Present

2007-08-08T19:34:00.000-07:00

This means rejecting thinking that doesn’t support your current trading objectives, including rejecting non-trading related mental chatter (what’s for dinner, balancing your check book, who’s on American Idol tonight, whatever). Your goal is simple -- to zero in on the trading task in front of you. Enter your personal trading zone. Deny all incoming calls. Don’t check your email and please do not even think about logging into your Instant Messenger account. You’ve got to be in a place and time where you can trade without being disturbed.

Ask yourself – Where Am I? The answer is - Here

Ask yourself – What Time Is it? The answer is – Now

When you become fully present on the task of trading, you are able to achieve peak performance and gain an edge on the other traders in the market at that moment. How many times have you often have you been trading, felt in rhythm with the market, and then you become distracted, surfed the web (OK, you busted me!), checked your email and all of a sudden, your trade fell apart because you overlooked an indicator or failed to see what economic releases where due out during your trading session.

Trading in the here and now is not only powerful, it is extremely profitable! When you can direct your focus on your trading task without distractions you become invigorated and infused with the energy that comes from requiring yourself to be fully present when trading, you’ll find that your trading all of a sudden becomes a little easier and enjoyable. When you reach this state, stop briefly to observe it and how you feel so that you can summon this mental state more easily in the future. And journal it so you can recall all the factors that contributed to your success. That way you’ll be able to set yourself up in a repeatable, successful trading environment. Your journal will become the greatest trading tool you'll ever own!

To not become fully present when trading is to short-change your Forex Education AND you’re your account balance … it’s like not accepting the greatness within your at the time the market provides you with your pip rewards.

Which mental time zones do you what to be in for your trading? There are only three: past (FEAR), future (ANXIETY) and HERE. It’s been said that most traders spend only 1% of their time in the present. Could you imagine what kind of profits your mind can produce when you become fully present when trading?

Carpe Diem and Happy Trading!!

We're #1

2007-08-06T10:37:00.000-07:00

Well, as I return to my desk from a break to welcome the new addition to my family I was pleasantly surprised to received notification that Forex Journey has been ranked as the #1 Forex Blog by CurrencyTrading.Net on their “Top 25 Forex Bloggers.

Check it out ==> http://www.currencytrading.net/2007/top-25-forex-bloggers

Thanks everyone for inspiring me to follow my passion!

Happy Trading!!

Rounded Bottoms Chart

2007-07-20T23:54:00.000-07:00

This formation has the same characteristics as a rounded top only this time it works in the opposite way and creates a BUY signal. Rounded bottoms are sometimes called Saucers or the Accumulation Period.

All of these patterns indicate that the downward trend is running out of steam and the market is looking to test higher ground once again.

Most experienced traders would be looking to position themselves in this accumulation period, it is called the accumulation stage as that is exactly what is happening, traders are accumulating shares.

A further extension of the rounded bottom is a formation called a Cup. It is basically a completed rounded bottom with a smaller rounded bottom formed on the right hand side thus giving the appearance of a handle for the cup.

Volume should be on the increase as the bottom starts to climb upward.
There should be even larger volumes again during the Handle stage.

Note :
If you want to start your own business for free
Pls download the ebooks HERE
It takes only two minutes....

Rounded Top chart

2007-07-20T23:21:00.000-07:00

The formation of a rounded top on a chart is a good indication that the market will look to test Lower ground soon and thus giving us a Sell signal.

It can also be called a saucer or distribution curve and is seen at the end of an upward trend. It shows the market is running out of steam and cannot achieve new highs.

Volumes will start to reduce as the price reaches it's peak and increase as the price starts to fall.

Happy trading

Double Bottoms Chart

2007-07-20T23:09:00.000-07:00

Examples of Double Bottoms

Note: Dramatic rise in volumes on second bottom

Double bottoms are identical to double tops except they work in the opposite way and thus create a Buy signal.

Double bottoms basically tell us that the market has tested a price level on two occasions and on both times refused to go Lower.

They can also come in the form of triple and quadruple bottoms.

Volumes on the second bottom should be Greater than the first bottom.
Double bottoms can give an excellent Buy signal and most Technical Traders would act on such a sign.

Double -Tripple Top Charts

2007-07-20T20:48:00.000-07:00

This is another powerful pattern that MAY indicate that the market is looking to test Lower levels.
It occurs at the end of a upward trend or market rally.

Double tops basically tell us that the market has tested a price level on two occasions and on both times refused to go higher.

They can also come in the form of triple and quadruple tops.
Volumes on the second top should be lower than the first top.

If you hold a stock that exhibits a double top be ready to liquidate as there is a good chance the market will go lower

TIP
Bar and Candle Charts will give you a better example of double tops than line charts.

Inverse Head and Shoulder

2007-07-20T20:01:00.000-07:00

This pattern is identical to the H&S discussed above except it occurs at the end of a downward trend or market sell off. It is made up of the same four components only this time they are acting in reverse and thus give a Buy signal.

The Left Shoulder - The market looks to test lower price levels. Decreasing Volumes. Followed by test of Neckline.

The Head - Market again looks to test lower ground and succeeds with setting a higher price that was set by the Left Shoulder. Steady to slightly increasing Volumes. Followed by test of Neckline.

The Right Shoulder - Once again the market looks to test lower ground but this time fails to achieve the low price set by Head. Increasing Volumes. Again followed by test of the neckline only this time there is a good chance of the Neckline being violated and the market MAY look to test Higher ground.

The Neckline - Is a line that is drawn connecting consecutive Highs. It is a line where the price bounces off and refuses any Higher. It is basically the same as a Resistance Line.

Again most traders who are familiar with this pattern would try to Buy at the bottom of the head but it is a safer way to trade if you wait till confirmation that the Right Shoulder has formed and is looking to test the Neckline once again.

Head & Shoulder Chart

2007-07-20T01:27:00.000-07:00

You should now have a basic understanding of Trend Lines and their workings from our first chapter. In this chapter we will discuss some of the patterns that form on the charts that help give a further indication of an impending Trend Reversal.

Once again some of the patterns about to be discussed are very powerful and SHOULD be respected!

Head & Shoulder Pattern
Inverse Head & Shoulder Pattern
Double Tops
Double Bottoms
Rounded Top . Saucers
Rounded Bottoms / Saucers and Cups
Triangles
Flags / Pennants / Wedges

Head & Shoulder Pattern

The Head & Shoulder Pattern has claim to being one of the most reliable of all chart patterns. It is usually formed at the end of an upward trend or market rally and acts as a SELL signal.

There are four main components that make up a H&S pattern and they are :

The Left Shoulder
The Head
The Right Shoulder
The Neckline

The Left Shoulder - The market looks to test higher price levels. Increasing Volumes. Followed by retracement to neckline.

The Head - Market again looks to test higher ground and succeeds with setting a higher price that was set by the Left Shoulder. Large Volumes Followed by retracement to neckline.

The Right Shoulder - Once again the market looks to test higher ground but this time fails to achieve the high price set by Head. Reducing Volumes. Again followed by retracement to neckline only this time there is a good chance of the Neckline being violated and the market MAY look to test Lower ground.

The Neckline - Is a line that is drawn connecting consecutive lows. It is a line where the price bounces off and refuses to go below. It is basically the same as a support line.

Most traders who are familiar with this pattern would try to liquidate at the top of the Head or as it started to retrace towards the Neckline

If you are still holding a stock during the Right Shoulder stage it may be your last chance to liquidate before the price tests lower ground.
I advise that you look to liquidate at the top of the Right Shoulder, remember you can always buy it back at a lower price.

What is Breakout

2007-07-19T10:43:00.000-07:00

What to look for! Breakouts

We have now established what are trend lines and how to draw them. When one of theses lines is breached is called a Breakout.
If a breakout occurs on a Resistance line many Trader's will class this as BUY signal and act accordingly.
If a breakout occurs on a Support line many Traders will class it as a SELL signal an act
accordingly.

Please note how the OLD Support line NOW becomes the NEW Resistance line.

Note Rising Volumes on Breakout

From time to time there will be FALSE signals given.

This is why it is important to WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION of a trend reversal or breakout.

It is at this point we need to add other indicators to help with our Analysis.

How to draw Resistance Line.

2007-07-19T10:37:00.000-07:00

When we draw a line joining all the tops of a price pattern together the line is called a Resistance Line.

It is basically the exact opposite of the support, it is a series of highs on a chart where the market continually rejects the price thus not allowing it to go any higher

Many traders elect to SELL when the price reaches this point

It is our belief that the market likes to test Resistance lines more than once and we look for SELL signals after a second or third testing of this line

The same applies for resistance in that it is a powerful level and one SHOULD think seriously about taking profit at this level.

Some traders like to sell small parcels to average out their price paid and leave the rest in hope of greater gains.

What is Support Line ?

2007-07-19T10:23:00.000-07:00

Support line

When we draw a line joining all the lows of a price pattern together the line is called a Support Line.
These lines are a low point on the chart on which the price bounces off consistently when reached

Many traders elect to BUY when the price reaches this point

It is our belief that the market likes to test Support lines more than once and we look for BUY signals after a second or third testing of this line.
If a support line is broken then the current trend is said to be broken or in a Down Trend and the market will look for a lower price to set up a new support level.

These levels ARE very powerful and SHOULD be monitored diligently when reached.

How to know trends

2007-07-19T08:10:00.000-07:00

The basis for drawing trend lines onto charts is probably one of the most basic to do and master, yet it is one of the more powerful and reliable indicators used to determine a change in trend.

Trend lines can be applied to many different indicators but for the reference of this article we will use closing price data. This is the most common data used.
We will discuss the other uses at a latter stage.

Use the list below to navigate or simply scroll down,

1.What are trend lines and how to draw them !
2.Support lines.
3.Resistance lines
4.What to look for / Breakout's

When viewing most charts a pattern of the price formation is usually visible to the naked eye. This pattern is called a trend and these trends have three distinct patterns.

Up trend

UP TREND : Prices increasing

A down trend with trend line drawn in

DOWNTREND: Prices decreasing

Holding pattern with BOTH lines drawn in

Note Rising volumes on lead up to Breakout

HOLDING or FLAT LINE : Prices stagnant or small trading range

Draw a line connecting the lowest points on a chart in an up trend.
Draw a line connecting the highest points on a chart in a down trend.
Draw a line c Draw BOTH highs and lows for a holding pattern

Forex Education Mind Set

2007-07-18T14:24:00.000-07:00

Here's a forex education blog post I like and thought you might too! You can find the article at:
http://financial-blogs.blogspot.com/2007/07/forex-trading-do-you-have-what-it-takes.html

or below:

Forex Trading - Do You Have What It Takes?

There are some facts that you simply must accept to have a fair chance to be successful at Forex trading. Let's have a look at what these facts are and if you can succeed in the worlds most exciting investment environment.

Trading markets are not scientific

The thought of approaching Forex trading by applying science is appealing. However, Scientific theories dont and never will work, because humans determine the market prices, and doing so, they dont consider scientific criteria.

Most people would prefer to be able to make money without risking anything. Many vendors try to gain from this fact, offering trading systems which are described as a possibility to trade with low risk and make a regular income. The fact you must accept is:

If the reward is big, the risk will be mirrored. Pure and simple, risk and reward walks hand in hand. If you can't accept taking risks, you should look for another small business idea.

So far it has been kind of negative, lets have a look at the bright side

To be successful at Forex trading will not require hard work! Work smart not hard is a perfect expression here, meaning that you don't need to learn just for the sake of learning. You'll only need to learn one system/strategy. It wont take long to learn because...

Simple straight forward systems work best. A simple system in Forex trading will outperform a complicated system, short term and long term. Why is that a indisputable fact?
Because it will always be easier to implement a simple system in a complexed market. A complexed system with a lot of parameters, makes it much harder to find the right trading opportunities. The most reliable currency trading systems all tend to be simple.

You can learn everything about currency trading

If thats a fact, why do so many Forex traders lose? The answer is the lack of mental discipline.
Currency trading is more about mindset rather than just a method. If you dont maintain discipline to follow your method, the method isn't there anymore. The best way to gain the necessary discipline is to develop your own method. You'll be confident in your trading because of full understanding of the method.

If you are able to accept and take calculated risks at the right time, Forex trading can be very profitable, due to the leverage at your disposal. Forex trading is not rocket science. Its a lot simpler than you may believe, and thanks to the Internet it's available for everyone.

The key points:
Education
Learn to accept the risks
Rely on yourself
Trading discipline

Forex Education Success Formula

2007-07-10T09:54:00.000-07:00

You read about the risk trading the Forex market every day. I talk to many successful traders and investors about the Forex market and it is mind blowing the fear this market produces amongst the conservative investors and daredevil attitude of the aggressive traders. Yes, it is a fact that 95% of traders lose money in Forex. I was taught that if you want a better answer then you have got to ask a better question and my question is why?

The answer is rather simple – most traders seek the path of least resistance and that will inevitably lead to failure. They failed because they didn’t take the time to gain a proper understanding and cheated their Forex Education!

Look, the market is neither for you nor against you. It makes profit opportunity equally available as the chance to take a loss. It will take money from you no matter your age, sex, experience or effort you put into your trading. The Forex market only rewards those who are correct and nothing else. It’s the old saying – work smart and not hard.

That leads to the next question; how can I be correct and smart? The answer is simple – through Forex Education. I have put together my Success Formula for trading the Forex market.

1. Strategy – it’s not a one size fits all world. Different strategies play to us based on our individual trading personalities. Understanding the rules and tools are critical when applying them to the market. This comes with time and experience. Don’t short change your learning curve. It will eventually lead you to profit.

2. Money Management – planning your risk will keep you in the game as you climb the learning curve as well as exploding your account once you’ve gained the experience and knowledge. Mastering this skill is not optional!

3. Self-Mastery - is having the discipline and emotional control to manage your strategy and money management plan. Knowing yourself will be skill that catapults you in to the elite 5%. It takes self-awareness training, accepting full responsibility for all of your trading actions and the ability to go beyond trading and finding your true personality. Talk to any successful trader and you will quickly see the control they exert not only in their trading, but in their lives in general.

Learning to trade Forex isn’t rocket science. Keeping things simple and working smarter will lead you to success in this market and the path forward can only b accomplished by investing in your Forex Education.

Happy Trading!!

Forex Education - No Pain, No Gain

2007-07-08T17:13:00.000-07:00

Forex trading breakthroughs have a lot to do with your ability to get comfortable with being uncomfortable. Success usually comes from staying in the here and now, as well as accepting the fact that the market literally can do anything at anytime.

Many of your actions now may seem frustrating - such as designing a trading plan, sticking to just a few currency pairs, learning the intricacies of a strategy. It can seem downright overwhelming too. Just remember that each step you take in the process is adding value to your eventual trading success.

Why is it that so many people are always seeking the easy way out? I guarantee the amount of time searching will be less than just digging in and climbing that learning curve as fast as possible. Just imagine where you're going to be a year from now with a little bit of effort and determination!

Here are some thoughts to get you through that learning curve at lightning speed:

1. Hard Work Now Will Pay Off Later

All the work you do now mastering the process of trading through Forex education will pay off. Will it pay off today or tomorrow? Probably not, however, the small things done consistently in the right places will pay huge dividends later.

2. Every Experience Is A Lesson

Learn from both your mistakes and your success equally. As the question - what lesson am I meant to learn from this and journal it!

3. Focus On The Positive

Losing is a part of trading. Except it and keep your self-talk 100% positive. You will find that at the end of your Forex Journey you were your own worst enemy.

4. Choose The Difficult Action Over The Easy

Doing this will make you a stronger person, not just as a trader. You will find that your characteristics follow you in trading. When you grow as a person you will enhance your ability as a trader. Ask yourself - what action would a profitable trader take and then do it!

Remember this when you get frustrated by learning a new trading technique or in transitioning from demo to live trading -- if you are uncomfortable you're growing as a trader -- and take comfort in being uncomfortable.

Happy Trading!!

Todd Judkins Uses Squidoo

2007-06-29T05:00:00.000-07:00

Some of you have been asking, so here's my Squidoo site for Forex education:

http://www.squidoo.com/forexjourney

Enjoy,

Todd

Forex Education Mastering The Forex Market

2007-06-27T18:44:00.000-07:00

Forex Education is always king. That being said, I thought this was pretty interesting...

Investing in the forex, currency market even with small capital is very risky advanture. Before taking on the forex trading market, it's important to be armed with a good understanding of the market itself. This is what makes a good free forex education resource, invaluable to both new and veteran forex traders.

The forex, or Foreign Exchange, market is the largest financial exchange market in the world. Every day, more than 1.8 trillion dollars are traded on the forex market. In the past, it was often difficult for smaller traders to take part in this huge money market, due to a lack of contacts and resources. But that situation has changed. More and more, individuals and smaller banks and companies have the opportunity to invest in the forex market, particularly via the internet, making currency trading an exciting and lucrative enterprise for individual traders as much as for the banking industry. However, it's important to keep in mind that currency trading of even small amounts and modest investments can be risky.

Before taking on the forex trading market, it's important to be armed with a good understanding of the market itself, along with an overview of current market trends and risks. This is what makes a good free forex education resource, like free-forex-education dot com, invaluable to both new and veteran forex traders.

At free-forex-education website, established forex traders as well as those with a burgeoning interest in currency trading can learn everything there is to know about the market. Learn what world currencies are making the most money. Know what the risks are, and when and how to make the most money on a trade. Acquire all the knowledge you need in order to make anywhere from a dollar to a million on this highly liquid market, without leaving the comfort of your computer.

Along with using resources available at free forex education sites like Free-forex-education dot com, it's important to as much research as possible before doing any major forex trading. For a free forex ebook and various information on forex trading please visit. This amazing free resource will provide you with all the information you need to get started trading today.

About Author:Joe Karakas is the owner of the forex online resource found at http://www.free-forex-education.com . Our site help with informations and resources to learn to trade forex online. Check out the website for free forex education more details. Please note that our site is just for information purposes and not an advice whatsoever!Article

Source: http://www.BharatBhasha.comArticle Url: http://www.bharatbhasha.com/finance-and-business.php/62780

Remember the free stuff is a good start, but a Forex Coach will accelerate the process.

Happy Trading!!

Don't Quit On Your Forex Education

2007-06-20T11:55:00.000-07:00

Whether you are my student or not I genuinely care about your Forex Education. More importantly I'm passionate about every one obtaining a solid financial education - a skill sorely missing in the world. I chose Forex because of the numerous advantages over the other liquid financial markets. It has allowed me to achieve a high level of financial literacy and provide an outlet for my long held desire to teach.

More importantly, Forex education and training has given me the confidence to control my financial future - and that is truly priceless. That being said, we must look past the hype in the marketplace and focus on what it really takes to personally achieve in the Forex market or any endeavor for that matter.

I'm not going to lie to you, trading Forex is not easy. But not for the reasons you may thing. I've found that in the end we are the ones that will ultimately decide to be successful or not. I know lawyers who have failed miserably in Forex and construction workers who are now millionaires. The separator is not IQ, but rather emotional discipline or Self-Mastery. Where is this obtained?

Your Forex education is the key!

Learning yourself will increase your bottom line more than any other single aspect. Let me just preview what emotional elements must be in place for you to succeed in Forex. You will notice that there is no mention of strategy, moving averages or pivot points!

1. Have A Strong Enough "Why" Statement

Why do you want to get your Forex education and trade the currency market? Is it to save for retirement? Is it to supplement your current income? Is it to replace your current job? Are you trying to accelerate your college fund?
The answer to this question must be strong and full of passion! This will be the one element that will get you through the dark times all traders face.

2. You Must Create Momentum

When you begin learning to trade Forex it is exciting and new, but like everything there is a finite Honeymoon period and the effort begins to wade and life takes you away from your Forex education. You must create momentum - pick a time in your schedule and dedicate this to study and trading and continue to focus on the process of trading. Making money should be a secondary thought to placing sound trades.
Imagine where you are going to be six months from now with a solid commitment. Hold on to that thought and never let it go. Work, kids, friends and family - we all go 'em . Don't let excuses creep in and steal your dream.

3. Overcome Any Obstacles

Listen, nobody is exempt from having to climb the learning curve to achieving in Forex. There are no short cuts. Forex education is the best path. I came across a system the other day that is being marketed as a system that "you don't have to learn" to begin trading in your live account immediately. Just watch a video for 10 minutes and you are good to go! Warning!! The sad thing is that the system appeared to built on sound principals, but no system is fool-proof and without your Forex education your risk is 100% if you do not understand when that system can fail!

Create a vision board of pictures that represent your "Why" statement. Put it within eyesight of your trading area. If you come to work in your car - stop listening to the radio and listen to a audio book, if you do not have the money to fund your live trading account continue trading your demo account until you can fund a live account - you will be in better position than 99.9% of the traders who fund an account right away. This why having a coach is so important.

4. Don't Play The Blame Game

You must from this second forward begin to take full responsibility for all your actions. If a trade didn't work out, don't blame the market or the strategy. Playing the blame game will be devastating to your experience. Look at each situation as a learning experience. I always say that in life there are no failures only feedback! I always ask one simple question after both a losing trade and a wining trade:

"What lesson do I need to learn from this to become a better trader?"

5. Don't Quit On Yourself

It's your dream and I want to fight for it with you, because I know what a mistake it would be to just give up and quit. If you quit you will ultimately learn nothing and would've missed an opportunity to turn your "Why" into your reality!

All you need is a Forex coach.

Happy Trading!!

A Tip for Accelerating Your Forex Education

2007-06-18T18:00:00.000-07:00

I teach a lot of traders and at the beginning they all have the same question...

How long will it take me to learn this? How much time can I expect to spend on my Forex education.

You know there is no answer to this. There are many variables to this answer, but it really comes down to the qualities needed to overcome most obstacle -- patience, determination, persistence and perseverance.

I know, yeah but..

Yeah, we have all those qualities, but we still want to accelerate the process. My recommendation is to live at the razor's edge. If you have traded Forex for any time you will realize that the difference between profit and loss is literally a razor's edge. With experience comes minor tweaking of our trading process until we have found consistency. Consistency gained through Forex training.

It's kind of like baseball (my favorite trading - sports analogy). If you are a .320 batter your baseball career you will most likely be elected to the Hall of Fame and bestowed major accolades. If you hit .280 everyone will tell you that you had a nice career, but no Hall of Fame call will come your way.

The difference between the two is that the .320 hitter got one more hit every 15 at bats .. that's it!

A minor increase in your Forex education is all that it will take for you to gain access into the Hall of Fame for Traders. Commit to yourself that you will read another chapter of the technical analysis book tonight, or spend 30 more minutes in your trading room will lead to astonishing returns down the road.

It is the little things that will ultimately give you the edge.

Happy Trading!!

Easiest cash on earth for webmasters

2007-06-09T23:31:00.000-07:00

This post is not related to forex trading, but most of you guys have their own blogs or websites where you put your thoughts, analysis or just articles on trading. But most important fact is: you are interested in making money and this is what this topic is all about.

First of all you need to know that i won't be talking about big money, you will probably never earn more then 1 000$ in a month, not even close to 500$.

But the fun part is, all you need to do is place a small banner on your website, that's it!

You will earn 5£ every single month, just for keeping this banner on your website, sounds to good to be true?

Well i also thought this way, but when i reviewed this company i realized, there is nothing to lose.

It is completely free. Free to join and free to earn easiest money online. In my opinion it is a quite decent deal.

You maybe thinking why would anyone possibly want to put a banner on my website and pay for it 5£ a month? But the reality is a bit different, when you signup you have to select 3 pages from your website where their banner will be visible. Then within 48 hours they will review your website, and accept or decline your application depending on your website.

But again there is no risk involved, if they decline your application, so what, you didn't lost a dime!

Join now before they stop accepting new members.

If you are interested in this company here is URL with my referral code, and another one without a referral code, choose whatever you want.

http://www.bucks4banners.net/?aff=11631
http://www.bucks4banners.net/

Market Time Chart

2007-06-09T02:22:00.000-07:00

As an active traders we should know when to trade and what to trade,
as there are several markets That we have to know and follow, at least
when the markets open and close. And for some of us timing become one
of our constraint in trading baceuse we live in different country where
the markets opens or close.

As a guidance for us I attached here a Market Time Chart.

Happy trading,

Krisman

New trader Strategy

2007-06-07T10:47:00.000-07:00

Have you ever got more than 2000 pips in a week ? I assume some of you have got it and I made it three years ago. The difference is I din't use any indicators because I had no ideas what they were...but I had to play...I had deposited my account.

I acted as if I was a real trader. And suddenly I had a "strategy" coming to mind :
At 00:00 GMT ( Luckly I live in a country where 00:00 GMT = 7:00 in the morning when all people will go working).

- I draw a horizontal line from the first tick of the day,
- BUY Stop 10 pips above the line.
- SELL stop 10 pips below the line for the same pair.
- Stop Loss 25 pips
- Take profit the next day.
- Trade as many pairs as I could ( I traded 10 pairs )
- Every day I made more than 200 pips from all trading, but the biggest one I got
from Brit/Jpn.

But I don't want you to do that ! That's only my "bad" experience last time. What I sometimes still do until today is:
- To draw a line on yesterday higest
- To draw a secon line on yesterday lowest.
- Easier to use daily chart.
- Buy Stop at yesterday higest
- Sell Stop at yesterday lowest
- Stop Loss 50 pips.
- Thats all.

Today on 7 June I made some pips from Brit/USD with that simple strategy. I traded just to refresh my mind and to prove that everybody can make pips with a very simple
tricks, including you. He...he...he...

You wanna do that ? Look at your chart and draw a line on the previuos day high and low, you will get the answer.

Happy trading

Krisman

Forex Education - Avoid the Online Currency Trading Trap

2007-06-07T10:25:00.000-07:00

Online currency trading in increasing in popularity and with that comes the good, the bad and the “you know what.” Like any business venture there are people out there waiting to take advantage of you and people who genuinely want to help.

Some people hocking learn to trade packages are internet marketers riding the wave of a hot market in search of profits off of someone else’s products. Others are skilled professional seeking to satisfy the teacher in all of us.

How do you get the necessary skills to become a successful Forex trader? How do you know which product or system is the Holy Grail?

The truth is that this does not exist!

Get your Forex education.

The simple truth is that the Forex market is made of human beings and price is nothing more than a representation of supply and demand, which is nothing more than the collective fear and greed the market perceives of a currency pairs value.

That’s it!

I have heard statistics as high as 95% of Forex traders lose money, so logic will tell you to focus in what the 5% are doing for consistent success. They know their system, execute high probability trades, and manage their risk. Most importantly they know themselves inside and out and how their emotions impact their trading.

Notice I said consistent success. So how is consistency found? Well, not in books, surfing the net or even the going it alone approach. Going it alone is the craziest of all. It will succeed if you are willing to lose your account over and over again until YOU figure it out or quit! Which scenario is more likely?

Let’s draw some examples from other professions that require peak performance under pressure. First, thing that comes to mind is professional sports. What do all professional athletes have in common, regardless of the sport? They all have a coach.

Whether the athlete participates in a team or individual sport they all have a coach! A coach is a teacher, a coach can serve as a motivator, and a coach can point out constructive feedback for improvement.

Let’s turn to another profession, business executives. One of the fastest growing industries in business is the business coach. High performance in the business world is critical and now more and more executives are turning to coaches for the same reason as professional athletes.
The moment of truth lies with the trader. The simple reason a Forex coach is valuable is because they are not you. They are not in the fish bowl with you. A coach can impart trading expertise and guide you through the process of Forex trading. A coach will connect you with yourself and maximize your performance.

So when searching for Forex education and online training, seek out education packages that cover strategy, risk management and will introduce you to your trader inside. Seek out those that teach through coaching and are there with you step-by-step.

You are playing the only game that will reward you when you are correct and implement severe penalties when you are wrong. Don’t leave anything to chance. Invest in yourself by investing in your Forex education.

Happy Trading!!

Forex Education - Banking

2007-06-01T18:20:00.000-07:00

Forex Nation -

Here is an interesting video called "The Money Masters - How International Bankers Gained Control of America" It is a long view so you may want to rip it ot a DVD.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936

Just another part of the Forex education process!

Todd
ForexJourney.com

Forex Education for Your Future

2007-05-30T13:29:00.000-07:00

Here's a statistic that may shock you.

Of the 77 million Baby Boomers in the United States planning for retirement in the next 10 to 15 years, 75% are hurtling towards unexpected financial difficulties, including having to go back to work. Unfortunately may people won't realize how ill-prepared they are for retirement until it is to late...

Here is my recommendation. Get you financial education now!

And while you're at it, a Forex Education with Forex Journey is the way to go.

Now let's fast forward a few years and you have taken he time to invest in your Forex education, which is truly an investment in yourself. You have learned to control your risk. You have built up your account where it alone can support your retirement needs.

Plus, you can continue to grow your account trading just a few hours per week. Your skills are easily transferable to the stock and futures market. In fact, why even wait until you're retirement age start building your life now and perhaps your dreams are closer than your think!

This is all possible if you take a proactive approach and get educated!

Happy Trading!!

Pips or Pairs ?

2007-05-29T08:06:00.000-07:00

Iam writing this funny blog just because my beautiful daughter wants to learn how to write blog and get a little money. Anyway I wasted my time because of this blog but I need to encourage her how to start business and not just rely on other people. That's why I even "throw away" all my holy grail ( my holy grail and not yours, don't misunderstand). Rubbish for others might be gold for me if I use correctly. He.....he..he....

Let's get to the above phrase " Pips or Pairs ". Some traders are sticked to one or two pairs in their trading as if no more other profitable pairs outhere. The problem is that how can you trade if your loving pairs can not give you signal or your pairs range only 30-50 pips on a particular day ? Are you going to stay with them or you get other pairs which might be unusual for you but give a good signal. A kot of new traders lose their trading because of just waiting their loving pairs to give signal but when it can not give it they just take and gamble.

Remenber..we want to make pips and not to love the pairs. I don't care about the pairs and I don't need to know them deeply. Iam not a banker. For beginners we can understand that one or two are better choices during their journey to the winning pips. But foe thore who has started to trade in real account, we should avoid it.

Right or wrong, my country...that's true..but BRIT/USD or USD/CAN..I don't care..I need only Big wave and big pips. That's all.

Look at the chart..it's trending and we make profit..That's what we like.

Once you need to trade what I suggest is to look for the trending pairs and not your favourite pairs. Once you find it, use your indicators and finally get the pips.

Happy trading

Krisman

The Power of Expectation

2007-05-22T14:36:00.000-07:00

One of the most powerful emotional triggers we can bring into our trading is the power of expectation. Expectations are the fuel that makes our trading goals seem to rush towrds us. Therefore, setting postive expectations is a critical component of our emotional mindset, especially when we are trading.

Here are some thoughts to help you set profitable expectations before beginning your trading session:

Trade to be great! Enter every trade with the expectation of making profit and not losing money.
Embrace the challenge of the market. It is through these challenges were growth lies.
Don't focus on the results. Instead focus on the process and the results will take care of themselves.
Believe in yourself.
Commit that nothing will take you off of your "A" game while trading
Be decisive and except full responsibility for the outcome.
Have positive self-talk. Negative talk will lead to negative results.

Expect to be profitable even in the face of obstacles. You have a choice. You can move forward in action or backwards in fear. Positive expectations will promote the positive results and positive results in our business always leads to profit!

This is a sample of the trading methodology at Forex Journey. We go way beyond trendlines and chart patterns!

Happy Trading!!

ONE Indicator to make pips

2007-05-22T11:36:00.000-07:00

Iam still trading now at 16:GMT May 22.2007. And Iam very happy.
I don't need to tell you why Iam happy...because the screenshot
of my chart will tell you...he...he...he....

Iam sure that most of you will be happy to see that chart if the
trading belongs to you, right ? You don't need to be a genius
to make pips...believe me. Never trust Signal provider !!! They
will rob your money.

Trading is simple....but your mind also should be simple..that's
all. Do not assume that you are writing a thesis for your Master
Program where you should write longer to show that you are an
educated student. Many people think so "the longer the better"
but not me...in trading...the shorter..the better.

You don't trust me.....look at the popular forex forum, there are
so many good and free strategy there..but most of the traders are
still looking for 'holy grail'. Do you think they find it ? No..they
lost their money just like in gambling table.

They never control their mind but just think like a master who needs
longer strategy. They don't like to use the simple strategy because it
can not give them satisfaction. Their mind is complicated.
I think that's all.

Let's get to the point.

Chart : I Hr
Indicator : Download here

Signal

Go LONG if you see BLUE DOT
Go SHORT if you see RED DOT

Exit

Pls get out of trading when you the NEXT DOT.

Note :

When you have downloaded the indicator, copy it to your
directory of Metatrader :

C:/Program Files/Metatrader 4/Experts/Indicators

Once you have placed the files in the relevant directory
depending on your setup), restart the trading software
and look for the indicator under "Custom Indicators".
Drag it to the relevant charts and enjoy better profits
from that indicator.

Happy trading

Krisman

Detecting trend reversal on Forex

2007-05-18T01:27:00.000-07:00

I know that: "How to detect trend reversal?" maybe a thought question with very complex answer but I will try to make my take on it, and keep it very simple and understandable.

So let’s get started, obviously when trying to detect trend reversal on Forex you have to use tools that were designed for it. You can’t predict it with MACD or RSI because they are trend following indicators. Indicators designed to predict trend reversal are … candles. Japanese always traded reversal strategies, European and US traders are almost always trend following traders.

If you don’t know how to interpret forex candles then do a search on web and find some info, reading correctly candles is easy and you have to know it. Although keep in mind I do not recommend using them on charts smaller then 4H.

Of course … relying only on Japanese techniques can be quiet deceptive so we need something more reliable, we need to have an angel. Trend reversal candles can happen anywhere on the chart, will they always mean end of the trend? … No, the really important candles are those which can be found near support and resistance levels. We want to know if this particular level will be broken or not.

Let’s pretend we have reverse candle near support, is it time to buy some lots? Again the answer is NO. Take your time, the next candle should be white which is confirmation that trend was reversed, there can also be consolidation period near resistance level, which is usually another sign that trend is reversing, in this case I would put long order at the resistance of consolidation block.

Where to put stop loss? I put it about 100 – 200 pips below my order depending on situation. I mean if important resistance or support line is broken and price move fast in opposite direction (eg. 100 pips) then there is really no point in holding this position any longer, trend wasn’t reversed.

Well, I hope this helps some of you, but if you are going to use this techniques then keep in mind they apply to longer timeframes! I use it with 1D charts, if you will use it with 15M chart you are going to blow yourself out.

Taking a Cue from the Past

2007-05-17T19:32:00.000-07:00

Last night I was doing some much needed spring cleaning in the office. I was going through that box in the closet. You know the one? The one that has been sitting there for years and you say every year you are going to get to it!

I was going through this box and it was like going down memory lane, but one of the items I came across just floored me. Back in my early days of trading the Forex market I use to write out cue cards of areas I was struggling with adjusting to the new market. Prior to driving into currencies I traded the stocks and options entirely on end-of-day trading, and jumping into the hustle and bustle of the Forex market brought a new level of emotional intelligence.

I thought you might enjoy excerpts from my cue cards. I still use them, now they are just internalized!

Cue Card #1: Daily Check List, Set up charts, review economic calendar and news, review the big picture, are the charts reversing or retracing, acceptable reward -risk ratio, why not take the trade, pull the@#$% trigger! An finally, journal results

Cue Card #2

#1 - ALWAYS REVIEW AND PREPARE

#2 - ENTRY DECISIONS ON COMPLETED CANDLES ONLY!!

#3 - SET STOPS CAREFULLY

#4 - DO NOT TRADE AGAINST THE TREND

#5 – RISK LESS IF SECOND RETRACEMENT OF MOVE

On another note…

I am getting a lot of questions about Forex Journey training. Mainly around how and where we teach. To the latter, we do daily live online training in our trading room. This room is a live, online interactive room where we are both training live at the beginning of the New York session. Your membership gives you access to this room every morning.

In the room we follow trading rules based on the Forex Journey principals of integrating candlestick and chart patterns, as well as our comprehensive approach to Fibonacci studies. While training in the room buy and sell opportunities are set up, but during the moment of truth, the decision are left to the individual traders. . Money management techniques demonstrated and trading psychology is always on the menu.

Trading in our room is the perfect way to learn to trade the Forex market. Our techniques are potable to any liquid financial market, and will lead confident and discipline trading.

Click here to begin your Forex Journey!

Happy Trading!

Let's Catch BIG PIPS

2007-05-17T11:55:00.000-07:00

A few weeks ago my friend send me avery simple strategy
And I want to share with you the strategy. Please read on.
This system will have you miss many opportunities. You might
still say to yourself "I shouldn't have closed that position"
or "I should have gone the other way," then odds are that
you will try to modify the system for better entries and exits
and eventually you will make it either far too complex to be
practical, or a loser. If you want to modify it, please make a
new website about it so that the beginning traders don't get
confused when they try to apply what they just learned to their
trading.

I expect many of you to brush off the system as bad once you
get to the chart setup section. Why? Because you probably have
tried something very similar when you first started and gave up
after the first few losses. This is what happened to me when I
started as well... But enough of this, let's get to the system.

The System:
The system is based on what I mentioned previously, all
commonly accepted principles of successful trading: go with
the trend, cut your losses short, let your profits run.

Currency Pair:
First we need a currency pair that trends. Most crosses
accomplish that rather well so we'll pick EUR/JPY.

Timeframe:
As we mentioned before, small time frames are ideal for whipsaws,
so for the sake of our profits and for practicality purposes
we'll stick with a middleweight time frame: H4. That way, we'll
only have to look at the market for a few minutes 6 times a day.
Only place your orders and limits right before the open of the
new H4 bar.

Fundamentals:
We won't bother with fundamental trading here, this is for
the advanced traders who are able to handle high stress situations.
The system will force us to protect our position against any
adverse fundamental movement anyway.

Chart Setup / Indicators:
This is where I expect most of you to roll your eyes. We'll
use two indicators for this system: one for entry and one for
exit.Open your 4 hour chart and place a Simple Moving Average (SMA)
with a value of 39. This will be used for entry. Now add an
Exponential Moving Average of 13. This will be used for exits.
That's it, nothing more, nothing less. These two indicators in
themselves will get us in with the trend and let us ride our
profits.

Trading Rules
Entry: Go long when the price crosses the 39 SMA up from below.
Go short when the price crosses the 39 SMA down from above. The
best way to make sure you get your entry at the right price is
to put a limit order. If you don't have a position open, simple
put a limit order to buy or sell at the 39 SMA level.

Stop Loss & Reverse:
In the spirit of keeping the system as simple as possible we'll
use a fixed 50 pip SL&R. The point of the reverse order is to
make sure you are back in the right direction if the trend were
to change direction before you could take profit. Your reverse
order should also be protected with another SL&R.

Exit / Taking Profit:
We will trail our profits with the 13 EMA. In a long position,
when the price closes below the 13 EMA, exit the position for
a profit. In a short, when the price closes above the 13 EMA,
exit the position for a profit. Do not revere your position
once it's closed.

If the price closes below or above the EMA while in a loss,
don't close your position, let it run to the stop loss. This
will keep you from getting whipsawed too many times.

Money Allocation:
I like to open 1 lot per $10,000 I have in the account. As
the account goes up, increase the number of lots proportionally,
as it goes down, decrease the number of lots proportionally.
After a 50 pip loss, if you see a 50+ pip profit, you can
protect this position or even close it and start over on the
next trade.

There were two trades last week. The first one was a short
when the price crossed below the 39 SMA from above (red circle,
stop loss and reverse is the red line). We exited that trade when
the price closed above the 13EMA (black circle). We placed a
Buy Limit at the 39 SMA. This was triggered within 4 hours and
now we had a buy (blue circle) with a 50 pip SL&R (blue line).
The trade is still going. It will be closed once the price closes
below the 13 EMA.

Behind the numbers:
13 EMA: Thirteen is Fibonacci number that many traders like
to use. I simply chose it because it trails the trends of
EUR/JPY nicely.

39 SMA: This is three times thirteen. Plotted for longer
term trend.

50 pips: I used this number on the first page to explain the
idea behind the SL&R technique. I kept it in the system for
good measure.

I need only Big PIPS

2007-05-17T11:52:00.000-07:00

You might frequently win small pips ( 5,8,10,13 pips) when you are
trading some pairs. I don't like to have such small pips. They are
'peanuts" and make me suffer. As I expained many times there are
some good free strategies out there to choose. It's you to familiarize
with some of them in your trading.

The above statement may sound stupid for all of you, but to me 'not at all"
because Iam a passive trader but with active money. I could not imagine
how someone to sitting still in front of their desktop just for 8, 12, 0r 14
pips. It's a terrible way of making money in forex trading. I'd better put two
trades per day and get 200pips rather than win 10 tradings but only maing
100 pips. The more you trades teh more you loose.

What's the strategy I use ?
Lets look at your directory, you might have this one :

In order to create a trend line, it is necessary to locate the two
points to create the trend line. In this example we will be talking
about a demand trend line (uptrend). An uptrend is created when
demand exceeds supply; this is where the name demand line is derived
from.When choosing the points to create a demand line we are focusing
on points of support. True points of support are only those which
low has two candles to the left of it and two candles to the right of
it which lows do not exceed the low you are using. See the examples
below for reference of true support points.

In the chart above, I have marked the two points that will be used to
create the demand line, remember only two points are used to create
our trend lines. Notice how I refer to the most recent point of support
on the chart as the 1st point, remember we trade the most dynamic
market in the world, right to left is the key. To find the second point
of the demand line we look for the very next point of support that has
two candles to the left and two to the right that do not exceed the low
of the support point.

Once we have created of trend line, our next step is to use this trend line to
create a downside price projection once the market opens a candle on the
four hour chart below the demand line. Note I only say once the market
opens a candle, mentioned nothing about close because only the open of
a candle is necessary to create the price projection. The price projection
is created this way; you take the highest high created above the demand
line and mark it with a vertical line. As pictured in the example below:

Next you need to take a horizontal line and mark the point where the
vertical line coming from the highest high recorded above the trend line
intersect with the trend line. What seems complicated at first will be
much easier observed and understood in the example below

Note the two values listed on the chart. In the next step we take the
difference between the highest high recorded above the demand line
and the point where the demand line is intersected by the vertical line.

Highest High 1.9146
-
Point of intersection 1.8960
0.0186

We get a difference of 186 pips. This number becomes our price
projection. The final step in the process is the point of application
of the price projection. The price projection will be 186 pips to the
downside once a four hour candle has opened below the demand line.
It is key to become accustomed to this technique because price usually
reacts quickly to the downside once a candle has opened beneath the
demand line. Valuable pips will be lost if the trader does not react
quickly in many cases.

The price projection is made at the open of the first candle to open
below the demand line. For visual reasons above the candle has closed
also, but the price projection should be projected immediately following
the open of the candle. Remember, we don’t need the candle to open
and close below the demand line in order to make our price projection,
only the open is needed. Above in the example, we have an open value
of the first candle below the demand line at 1.9010. From this value we
will subtract the 186 pip difference we got from step 2.

Open below demand line 1.9010 -
Difference from Step #2 0.0186
1.8824

1.8824 becomes our price projection to the downside from the open
of 1.9010. This is a 186 pip potential trade.

Notice the price projection marked at the bottom of the page. The
line was place 186 pips below the open of the first candle below the
demand line. Let’s see the trade just one candle after entry

Note the rapid decline in the value of the currency once it breaks the demand
line. Let’s see if it reaches the full price projection

Notice how price fulfilled the 186 pip price projection. What may seem at
first to be a complicated task, once reviewed and practiced by traders
becomes a very easy and profitable way to trade. Trend line projections
give the trader the best overall view of where the market will be going. In
the above examples we have discussed demand lines and the downside
price projections once the demand line is broken. In the next section we
will discuss supply lines and the upside projections that are created from
supply line breaks. The same technique is used in both instances except
you are using know a supply line instead of a demand line and you will be
projecting a upside breakout instead of a downside breakout

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
In order to create a supply line, it is necessary to locate the two points that
create the supply line. Remember that a supply line is the same thing as a
down trend line. A supply is created when supply exceeds demand; this is
where the name supply line is derived from. When choosing the points to
create a supply line we are focusing on points of resistance. True points
of resistance are only those which high has two candles to the left of it and
two candles to the right of it which highs do not exceed the high you are
using as your point of resistance. See the examples below for reference
of true resistance points.

Notice how both points of resistance have two candles to the left and
two candles to the right that do not exceed the high of the resistance
point being used. Next we connect these two points of true resistance
to create our supply line.

Once we have created the supply line we want to draw a vertical line
through the candle that has the lowest recorded low below the supply
line. From this line we want to record the value where the vertical line
intersects the supply line and also the value of the lowest recorded low
beneath the supply line.

By calculating the difference of these two values we arrive at the price
projection pip value. In this example we want to perform the following
equation:

Value of trend line a lowest low intersection 141.75
-
Lowest recorded low beneath supply line 139.72
203 pips

We have now arrived at a projection point of 203 pips to the upside from
the open of the first candle above the supply line.

We are now waiting for the first candle to open above the supply line
so we can add 203 pips to that to arrive at our exact price projection.

The first candle has opened above the supply line so it is possible to
calculate the price projection by adding 203 pips to the open price.

Price projection of 203 pips targeted. This concludes the section on
supply and demand line breaks and price projections. Attached are
several power point examples to help you better understand this
technique.

Happy trading

Choosing a Profitable Strategy

2007-05-17T11:50:00.000-07:00

Profitable Strategy
How to choose a Profitable Strategy
Amazing Forex Strategy can be found alot now in internet. And we
become confused which one to choose because most of the owners
published they have the best one and they make profit, they make
pips.....and bla..bla.....bla..... Some of traders believe and
used it. You might also has tried to use some strategies event-
hough you never feel 100% happy, right ?

I think you have also tried a lot of them but still kept on
searching for the "holy grail". Don't do it ! We are not learning
phisics or mathematic, and you willl never find it because the real
fact we are facing the human behaviour who run their money in the
world markets. What can affect the markets now, tomorrow might be
different. What I can share you here is the way how you start
choosing a strategy ;

Simple

The strategy must be simple and could be used or practiced in a
very short time after you install into your chart. We can not
spend much time just to insatall the strategy everytime we start
trading. It will disturb your mind.

Validity

If you use a strategy, can it give you a valid signal or just a
wrong signal. We can check it by dragging your cursor back to
the previous time. Does the strategy release Signal ? You can
directly check out the performance since last year,week,day or
hour. You don’t have to use backtesting software to do it for you.
The strategy will tell you a good signal in the chart if it is
really profitable.

Intraday

Some writers said intraday trading could not be profitable because
economis situation or fundamental can not be changed only in a day.
And they bring us to the long trading (weeks ). To me..it’s funny…
how can you determine your stop loose in a week if the currency
goes against your direction. Can you spare your Stop Lose for 300
or 500 pips if the chart /currency goes against your direction and
wait until it reversal ? You can’t do that. The best one is
intraday and just make 100 -200 pips per day. That’s enough, you can
continue the next day. Don’t sacrifice your healthy life in fron of
your PC. It will destroy your emotion, attitude. Trading is simple
and don’t make it difficult.

Can you tell me one Simple Strategy here ? Why not.. this is a very
simple one but profitable and easy to follow . And Iam sure that it
has been widespread in many forums but most traders tend to search
a complicated one;

- 1H (of 30MIN, but you wil get wore whipsaws) candlesticks/bar charts
- 18 EMA & 28 EMA (put them in red)
- 5 WMA (in blue) & 12 WMA (in yellow)
- RSI = 21

The 18 EMA & 28 EMA are two red lines who form a tunnel, these will
help you to determine the start of a trend and the end of a trend.
Long term

The WMA & 12 WMA will show you when to enter a trend, they will also
help you to see the strenght of the trends. Short term

Entry Signals
You should only open a position, when the red tunnel is extremely
narrow or crossed !

LONG: 5 WMA & 12 WMA cross the red tunnel upwards.
If the 5 WMA also crosses the 12 WMA upwards, then the signal is
extra strong.
RSI >50

SHORT: 5 WMA & 12 WMA cross the red tunnel downwards.
If the 5 WMA also crosses the 12 WMA downwards, then the signal
is extra strong.
RSI<50

Exit Signals

Signals that show the end of the chosen trend
- Long: The price has reached a top and 5 WMA dives under 12 WMA
Close position

- Short: The price has reached a bottom and 5 WMA jumps above 12 WMA
Close position

Always close your position when boundry’s of the red tunnel cross
eachother or when they become so narrow that they are one! This is
a clear sign of a trend reversal. After you see this, close your
osition and open a new postion in the other way (If you were long,
close, open a short postion)

When in a trade and the 5 WMA & 12 WMA cross the red tunnel ->
Pay attention! As long as the red tunnel boundy’s doesn’t cross
eachother there is no problem, but often this is a sign that they will!.

Look at the chart,

You can observe now how easy to use the simple strategy. Try to practice it now and get profit.

Happy trading.
Krisman Situmorang

How many System for trading ?

2007-05-17T11:49:00.000-07:00

Iam sure that you have at least one strategy now for trading, and you
might loose or make money from it. But one strategy is enough ?
Many traders stick only to one strategy for his trading. Is it effective ?
The answer is NO.

Let's see the consequences; Normaly passive or active traders will start
to trade at once when they are in front of their desktop eventhough their
strategy did not give the signal. And at the end they will quess or gamble.
One strategy might not give you a signal everyday and you might not be
in front of your desktop when the signal released. Tha'ts why you must
needs more than one strategy. If one can not give the signal,the other one
could give you or even all can give you at the same time.

The most impostant things is that all the strategies have their own sensitivity
toward the price direction especially when the price not trending.

This is the most difficult situation that strategy catch..but sometimes if the
strategy can catch the signal, it will be powerfull and making a very big profit.

And now..it's your choice to stick to only one or get some other new. One
strategy will force you to gamble or to guess when it can not give you a
signal at the time you are ready to trade. You must avoid this critical situation.

Last time I have a good strategy which I purchased in internet, but it did not give
me signal everyday I could not wait...for a long time not to trade..and fimally
quess or gamble...and as a matter of fact I lost my trade. When the strategy or
system gave the signal, I was not in front of my PC. It can also happen to you.

Trading will involve your emotions your reaction, attitude, the difference is only
their level. This is the reason to choose more than one strategy to satisfy your
emotions . He...he.....he....

Happy trading

Krisman

Simple Winning Method

2007-05-17T11:47:00.000-07:00

Introduction.

I first started trading when I was 15. I was fond of the stockmarket, but due to my limited capital I could only buy one share. When I eventually choose the stock I wanted, It didn’t go up or down. It just kept bouncing around. In the end, I sold the stock with a 5% loss.

I was still following the stockmarket, but I decided for myself I needed something more volatile with more leverage. I discovered options, futures an CfD’s. But they still were to unpredictable.
Eventually, I found my holy grail: Forex. I read all what I could read about it and made some first profits.

I discovered the power of something as simple as the BGX system or Vegas.
I started studying these methods more closely and realized that these simple models could make you very profitable in the long run.

Over time, I started to adapt the systems with my onw rules. The biggest advantage of the Sidus Method is that it is not necessary for adding extra filters. Whipsaws will occor, but less frequent. This system made my trading very profitable as it easy to understand, easy to implement and easy to find the right entry-points.

SIDUS

What do you need?

- 1H (of 30MIN, but you wil get wore whipsaws) candlesticks/bar charts
- 18 EMA & 28 EMA (put them in red)
- 5 WMA (in blue) & 8 WMA (in yellow)

The 18 EMA & 28 EMA are two red lines who form a tunnel, these will help you to determine the start of a trend and the end of a trend. Long term

The WMA & 8 WMA will show you when to enter a trend, they will also help you to see the strenght of the trends. Short term

Entry Signals

- You should only open a position, when the red tunnel is extremly narrow or crossed !

LONG: 5 WMA & 8 WMA cross the red tunnel upwards.
If the 5 WMA also crosses the 8 WMA upwards, then the signal is extra strong.

SHORT: 5 WMA & 8 WMA cross the red tunnel downwards.
If the 5 WMA also crosses the 8 WMA downwards, then the signal is extra strong.

Exit Signals

Signals that show the end of the chosen trend:
- Long: The price has reached a top and 5 WMA dives under 8 WMA Close position
- Short: The price has reached a bottom and 5 WMA jumps above 8 WMA Close position

Always close your position when boundry’s of the red tunnel cross eachother or when they become so narrow that they are one! This is a clear sign of a trend reversal. After you see this, close your position and open a new postion in the other way (If you were long, close, open a short postion)

When in a trade and the 5 WMA & 8 WMA cross the red tunnel -> Pay attention! As long as the red tunnel boundy’s doesn’t cross eachother there is no problem, but often this is a sign that they will!

Happy trading,

Krisman

No reason to lose money in Forex

2007-05-17T11:45:00.000-07:00

There is no reason to loose money in Forex

Most of the writers / traders said that only few traders can make money from trading. Is that true ? How can you loose money while there are so tool which can help you beat the trading !.

If you are still newbie there is still new chance for you to make a lot of money after reading this article. I’ll try to help you as long sa you follow the rule. That’s all. Simple.

Technical Analysisis the biggest aspects that influences the trader’s mind and decision when start trading. Thousands of indicators even strategies and tricks can be easely found in many forex forums but only few make money ? Right. Why do you fail using technical indicators ? The answer is because technical indicators can not beat NEWS or Fundamental Analysis.

It means that fundamental news will destroy all your technical indicator or strategy, this is what so many traders forget when begin trading. They use technical indicators by not knoming fundamental analysis..
Herewith I will try to take a take a look at fundamental / news affects to your trading. So if you feel that you always loose your money , try just to follow this methode.
Every week there are some NEWS that will affect the price that you must know. They are :

1. NON FARM PAYROLL
2. TRADE BALANCE
3. INTEREST RATE STATEMENTS
4. DURABLE GOOD
5. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
6. PPI excl. FOOD AND ENERGY
7. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
8. CPI excl. FOOD AND ENERGY
9. TRICHET, BERNANKE, & FUKUI SPEAKS
10.UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

1.NON FARM PAYROLL
Remarks :
# Pip : 100 – 200 pips
# Country : USA
# Currencies : all USD pair

2. TRADE BALANCE
Remarks :
# Pip : 70 – 120 pips
# Country : USA
# Currencies : all USD pair

3. INTEREST RATE STATEMENTS
Remarks :
# Pip : >100 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

4. DURABLE GOOD
Remarks :
# Pip : 50 - 100 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

5. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
Remarks :
# Pip : 50 - 60 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

6.PPI excl. FOOD AND ENERGY
Remarks :
# Pip : 50 - 100 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

7.CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Remarks :
# Pip : 50 - 100 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

8.CPI excl. FOOD AND ENERGY
Remarks
# Pip : 50 - 100 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

9.TRICHET, BERNANKE, & FUKUI SPEAKS
Remarks
# Pip : 30 - 100 pips
# Country : E-12, USA, & JPN
# Currencies : EURO, USD, & JPY

10.UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Remarks
# Pip : 30 - 50 pips
# Country : ALL
# Currencies : all pair

All the above news can be seen in this following site, It is clearly explained what news to be reased in the week and we have to bookmark this page to make us easier to look at the News everyday.

http://forexfactory.com/index.php?page=calendar

How can we start trading the news ?

TIPS 1 : NON FARM PAYROLL (NFP)
The Great in Forex Tradding

Check your calendar news this month , you don’t have to take care of what news to be released. Just remember that Every Friday of each month the avove news will be released at 12.30 GMT .

The effect of this news is really big (100 -200 pis) only in a few minutes. So lets try to put the TRAP against the price direction.

Strategy

- Before the news realesed, do not trade, but just
be prepared to trade on Brit / USD.

- 30 minutes before the news, open your
Metatrader ( Your chart station) with 30
minuts chart.
- Look at current price .
- BUY STOP at 30 pips above current price,
(example current price is 1.9050, so you put BUY STOP at 1.9080)

- At the same time SELL STOP at 30 pips below
current price, , (example current price is 1.9050, so you put
SELL STOP at 1.9020)

- Cancel one of them it the price starts touching the
charts.

- Set Take profit 100 pips
- Set trailing stop 15.

Trading on this news once a month will make you profit at least 100 pips without technical analysis. What yoy want to see is the schedule for that news on every month of the firs Friday.

For the other news you can do the same thing, and I am sure that every week you will make good profit whithout technical analysis that usually make traders confused and finally loose the trade.

Happy trading.

Note :
If you want to start your own business for free
Pls download the ebooks HERE
It takes only two minutes.

What is the best Strategy ?

2007-05-17T11:44:00.000-07:00

The best Forex Strategy is one of the things you are searching for
in internet if you are a trader, right ?Have you found the best one
that can make you rich and produce a lot of money ? I don't think so,
WHY ? The reason is simple; there is no best strategy all over the
internet. One strategy might be working for you but can not work for me .

There are a lot of Free Forex Strategy that you can find and they can
work for you as long as they are "suitable" for your attitude,discipline
and emotions.

Lets take examples ; Simple Strategy ( consistig of 3 indicators) and
Complex Strategy( consistingt.of 8 indicators)

A simple one is the one that takes only a few second to decide or to
read the signal, and a complex one is the strategy that need you to
compare one indicators with other indicators and takes time to decide.

If you are kind of trader that can not sit in front of your desktop
for a long time,why you should you use a complex one ? You'd better
choose a simple strategy;quick and straight forward. And on the other
hand, if you are a trader that can observe your monitor all the
time you'd better choose a complex one.

I have used a lot of Forex Strategies; free and paid ones but only
few of them suits me. I really know that most of them work as
publishers advertised but not to all traders.

Six month ago I purchased one strategy and many traders said in
various forum that they can make money from the strategy but one
I used in demo platform I feel that I was just like studying
mathematics at High Scool, because I had to compare and look at
many indicators that used by the strategy. I could not do it and
Iam too old to do that like a school boys. But the funny things is
that I can still see my name in their testimonial.He...he...he...
And I know that the strategy is good but If I continue using it
with the real money I will loose. I could not follow that type.

As a guideline to you; you can try as many strategies as possible
but in demo version, and observe it whether you can relax using
the strategy or just a handicap for your trading.

You should learn how to choose and fit to your attitude. I believe
you will get the best one but for you.

In the next article I would like to write how to choose a good
strategy that can give you money.He..he...he...

Happy trading

Krisman

Note :
If you want to start your own business for free
Pls download the ebooks HERE
It takes only two minutes.

Which time period I use ?

2007-05-17T11:43:00.000-07:00

Amazing Forex Strategy allways attcah timeframes of the data in
the chart, i.e, hourly,daily,weekly,monthly,etc as the basic princiles
of technical analysis. And now when you are about to trade which
one do you use to determine trend ? Winning opportunities exist

in any time frame but we must customize settings of technical
analysis for each time period.

On weekly chart, the scale interval on the time axis is one week.
On the monthly chart, corresponingly every bar shows price action
for one complete month.

It is obvious that in order to cover a longer period of time and to be
able to analyze long-term trends, we have to compress the price
behavior.

Weekly chart, for example, can determine a period of five years and
more, the monthly chart can determine twenty years or more. This is
how we can manage to see far ahead of her-/himself and that is how
she/he can assess the market in terms of the long-term opportunities,
which are really valuable while using or applying technical analysis.

Studying price chart very important for deep analysis and It is wise
to start by analyzing long-term charts and then move slowly to
short-term charts. There is less "noise" on the long periods, that is
why graphic models, basic trend lines
and different levels of support or resistance are seen more clearly.

If we start studying short-term market, later on, as the volume of
analyzed data expands, we will have to reconsider the conclusions
several times at least. In the long run, short-term results may even
change completely after long-term charts have been studied.

If we want to analyze longer periods first, we can establish where
the market is in terms of a long-term perspective. After that,
we could then turn to chart studies which cover shorter periods
of time. That is how profesional traders go from "macro" to "micro"
analysis. At the final stage of the analysis, we determine the point
of "entry into the market", i.e., the point of opening a position.

The shorter the last analysis stage is, the more precisely one can
determine this entrance point.

Note :
If you want to start your own business for free
Pls download the ebooks HERE
It takes only two minutes.

Strategy + Discipline = More Pips

2007-05-17T11:40:00.000-07:00

This Strategy try to teach you that you don’t have to take a pill in order to be a great trader. You just need to focus on some simple tools.

What Is a PIP ?

You know what a pip is already. For purposes of this article,
we’re drawing it as a yellow cube. Do you know that most forex traders spend their careers chasing after pips.

Have you ever watched the market and wondered why the harder you tried, the more quickly the pips distanced themselves from you? I remember when I first started trading that the market would move away from me and I would begin to think: it’s moving.

Why is it moving away from me? Couldn’t it just as easily move in my direction? For a while, I made money on gut decisions. I’d make some progress, a few pips or more a day, but never really understand the signals. For instance, I’d make a profit just barely, and watch in horror /relief as the market swung the opposite way right after I exited the trade. Or I’d enter a trade, lose a bunch of pips, and then exit the position at a loss – only to watch the market swing back in my favor.

Only, of course, the position was closed and all I could do was sit there and watch.

Until you’re no longer impressed with pips – no longer frightened by them, nor infatuated by them, not in love with them, no longer simply hating them – they won’t give you the time of day. The acquisition of pips is your only goal in the currency market.

But pips are fickle and if you pursue them full of emotion, you’re going to get burned. You must be able to calmly make a plan, stick to it. But I could do none of those things.

My emotions took hold of me and turned me into an idiot.

It’s the same for pips. We all want them. We all want as many of them as we can get. But some of us are willing to risk everything for just a few of them. We’ll chase after them like a 12-year old boy. And you know what? They don’t give a damn about you and me.

This strategy will present a plan for learning about pips, where they’re going, what they’re about to do, and then arm you with a strategy that once implemented, can take a lot of the emotion out of trading.

Your goal will be to:

1. Enter positions as soon as a particular signal is given.
2. Exit the position as soon as a particular signal is given.

The payoff will be:

1. The emotion should be gone from the trading. You will enter and exit trades with discipline and focus.

2. You’ll get about 20 pips on the good trades. There will be many more good trades than bad ones.

Attitude is 99% of Trading

Developing the right attitude about your trading is most of the work. Once you get your attitude (your discipline) under control, you’re going to have more pips than you know what to do with.

So much has been written about this that you’d think that you’ve already heard enough about it. I’ve written about it elsewhere, too1, but I’ve got to stress that no technique or strategy is worth more than the discipline you have to implement it.

The 5/13/62 strategy requires discipline. This is the most powerful personal characteristic you can acquire. Period. It will earn you more money and success than any other attitude or personality trait. If you’re low on discipline, please take the time to consider what I’m saying:

In trading, discipline simply means two things:

1. Enter a position as soon as a particular signal is given.

2. Exit the position as soon as a particular signal is given.

If you do not acquire discipline, this system will not work for you. No trading system will work for you. But this isn’t a book about discipline. In fact, this book assumes that you have discipline, or you’re willing to acquire in order to implement a profitable trading system.

So, for the purpose of this discussion, and for the testing of this strategy, please be disciplined – even as you practice.

EMAs are the core of the 5/13/62 Strategy

Exponential Moving Averages (described in more detail below) are at the core of tis strategy. From the beginning you should understand that I didn’t invent the 5/13/62 strategy. At least I don’t think I did.

There are some extras that I add in, but essentially, all of this information is available elsewhere. That said, I believe that most of the people that write about forex have a way of putting you and I to sleep.

So maybe this is the first time you’ve heard about it, but in any event, I’ll try to keep it interesting.

If the chart above doesn’t make any sense to you, even with the legend, then here’s a brief explanation:

1. When the 5 crosses below the 13, and both of them cross below the 62, it’s possibly a good sell signal.

2. Inversely, we can assume that the opposite is true: when the 5 crosses above the 13, and both cross above the 62, it’s a buy signal.

What is EMA ?

Moving averages are the average value of the price of a currency pair, over a certain period of time. A 5-day moving average for the EUR/USD would be the average price of the EUR/USD over a 5 day period.

You can base the average on the closing, opening, or other price. Each time the MA is calculated, the earliest period is dropped and the latest period is added. In this way, the average price fluctuates according to the fixed time period.

The exponential moving average (EMA) puts the emphasis on the most recent prices, and less emphasis on the older prices. Sometimes you won’t see much difference between the EMA and the Simple Moving Average, which does not weigh any price
more than another.

Do I just look for the
crosses?

I have backtested (and so have many, many others) simply buying when the signals cross above and selling when the signals cross below.

There are even companies that build trading robots that will
automatically buy and sell when these signals are given. But, as much as I’d like to say differently, it’s not that easy.

There are all types of false signals (crosses that happen but that don’t turn profitable).

Here are some other principles of this strategy, divided in three sections: entering the trade, staying in the trade, exiting the trade. The principles of each section will help you maximize your gains and minimize your losses.

But first, a quick look at the tools you’ll need.

Charting

You can use the free charting software that comes with your
account – but I’ve not been impressed with anyone’s offerings. Some dealers don’t allow you to show more than 2 EMAs on a single screen.

Some do, but the process of charting them is difficult or unreliable.

The 30 minute chart

I have used the 15 minute, 30 minute, 1hr, 4hr, daily … even the weekly chart. You can really use anything longer than 15 minutes. I recommend starting with the 15 minute or the 30 minute, so you will see more opportunities in a shorter period of time.

The 5 and the 13 alone

Chart the 5, the 13, and the 62 period Exponential Moving Averages.

Part I: Making the Trade

Below you’ll find the principles behind making good trades. And avoiding the bad ones. These are guidelines. Good trades based on these guidelines are the result of applying them enough times that you begin to get a feel for the market.

I want to emphasize that you can change these rules. You can manipulate them. You will be most successful when you make this “your own,” by adjusting so that you feel most comfortable.

Holidays and other bad days

Try not to trade on holidays, especially U.S. holidays. It’s best to stay out of the market on those days and catch up on time with your family, see a movie, adjust the metal rod that was placed in your back, insert a metal rod in your back, or fire up the barbie-q and roast some weenies. Or you can back test your strategies. It’s also best to never,
ever, ever, enter a trade past 14:00 GMT on a Friday.

On holidays and late on Fridays, the market is unpredictable and might not move enough to give you any profit. Or it might move 50 points in one direction just for the heck of it, and then move back. Of course it might move a zillion pips, but that’s the exception rather than the rule. Then you’re stuck in what might become a losing position, but meanwhile, you’re losing money to premiums/interest paid to your

broker. This is a good time to shove a metal rod into your spine.

Please take my advice and just stay out of the market, with this system, at these times. You may lose some opportunities, but you will lose (also) the chance of getting trapped in a motionless or unpredictable market.

Other systems, long term systems in particular, can work okay late on Fridays and on holidays. But that is the subject of another ebook. One, incidentally, that I have not written yet.

Trading on the 5 and the 13

You should be prepared to buy anytime the 5 crosses above the 13. You should also be prepared to sell anytime the 5 crosses below the 13.

You should be prepared to do this even if they do not simultaneously cross the 62.
This does not mean that you take the trade immediately. It means that you are aware that a trade might be coming.

Is the 13 crossing the 62?

The next part of the system is to watch for the 13 to cross the 62.Whether above or below (long or short positions), you’re in good territory. At these times, it might be a very, very good opportunity.

I want you to also focus on the fact that the pair, after this crossover occurs at the pink circle, return to hit the 62 EMA again – and this is an excellent time to sell the pair all over again. This means that if you miss the original trade, it’s totally acceptable to enter the trade when the pair
rises up and hits the 62.

This works for long and short trades – the 62 EMA will act as a dynamic level of support and resistance.

Stops and limits

Last of all, do the following:

1. Set a stop-loss at 20 pips beyond the 62 EMA.
2. Trail the trade by 20 pips (using a trailing stop loss), or:

3. Set a profit target at a recent high or low (something that creates a double top or double bottom).

During the Trade

Lots can happen during the trade. Here are some things to consider and remember during the trade.

Set it and forget it?

believe that anyone that tells you to “Set it and forget it” is appealing to your desire for quick, easy profits without any work.

Right now, I would like to appeal to your desire for quick and easy profits without any work. I will do this by telling you that if
you choose a recent high/low as your profit target, or a trailing stop, then you can walk away.

Initial volatility

At the beginning of the trade, you might see some initial volatility.

This means that after the candle closes, you might see the next candle go opposite from where you want it to be. Don’t get overly concerned about this. You need at least 20 pips of free room to let the trade gather momentum.

And remember what I said (not about the rock band): the pair might rise up or fall down and hit the 62 EMA. This is just another opportunity to get in the trade if you did not already (or add to your position).

Part III: Exiting the Trade

We already covered this, because you set the limit at a recent high or low, or you set a 20 pip trailing stop.
Let the system exit the trade for you, based on your stops and limits.

Most forex dealers will guarantee stops and limits, so you’ve got little to worry about.

That’s it!

Note :
If you want to start your own business for free
Pls download the ebooks HERE
It takes only two minutes.

Guess the price movement ?

2007-05-17T11:38:00.000-07:00

If you are an active trading you must have "lovely pairs" where
you know their charecteristics and movement. And that's why a
professional traders suggested to trade one or two pairs for new
traders. We need to know deeply aboy the pairs so that we feel
familiar with them.

I brought up this item because I have one lovely pair - Brit/USD.
On a certain time I don't need to use any technical strategy
in order to trade Brit/US. Normally I will make big pips when I
found that condition but the trading might be taking 3 days until
10 days. Therefore, I will make more than 200 pips.

What is the condition to focus ?
It's very simple; Whenever Bri/USD in at the extreem highest or
lowest I would go LONG or SHORT. Three days ago when
Bri/USD at 2.0125, It's already at extreem area ( you can see
the daily chart).Then I took SHORT position, with Stop Loss =
100 pips.

Now on April 21.2007 Brit/USD is at 2.0021 and next few days
It might be going down and down . Now I've profited 100 pips right ?
What you have to remember is that Stop Loss must be higher to
anticipate the price. Just like three days ago I saw that the price
was at 2.0125 and if the price went up again up to 50 pips higher,
we were still save because the Stop Loss is 100 pips.

Don't panic if you put higher Stop Loss, you can reduce your lot
size when you trade on this lucky condition, so that you will not
lose much money if the price go against your direction.

I always trade on this condition. Do you still remember last Month
when Bri/USD was at 1.9200 level ? Can you imagine your winning
percentage if you trade at the time ? You must have got a big fish !!.

I hope you can get what I am trying to explain here. I never studied
Forex at the university and I never know how to create a program or
excellent strategy but I can find a lot of free amazing strategies out
there and I can profit from them.

You don't have to know a lot of theory.....you re not going to be a
lecturer or teacher but just to make
pips and pips and pips..that's all. Never try to search for holy grail..
but you can adjust any strategy to be your holy grail.

Happy trading,

Krisman

Note :
If you want to start your own business for free
Pls download the ebooks HERE
It takes only two minutes.

Do you make Profit ?

2007-05-17T11:36:00.000-07:00

So far did you make profit in your trading, I hope
you did If you haven’t make any profit during your
trading I can conclude that you hadn’t found the one
that suits you.

As I always say that there is no “holy grail” for all
traders But one simple strategy can be a real holy grail
for somebody. The difficult thing is only to choose
which one suits you among thousands of system / strategy.

Therefor, I still want to give you a time to choose
and practice some of them. In this short writing I give
you also A very simple strategy that I assume you can
make profit.

Let’s practice :

10 Minute Chart Day Trading Method

Please note: If you wish to trade this method on 5 minute
charts, you will need to double all of the indicators.
The (5 period WMA would be charted as 10, the RSI would
be set at 28 etc...)

Description: An intraday trend following trading method,
using the following indicators:

• 5 period WMA
• 10 period SMA
• Slow Stochastic (5,3,3)
• RSI (14)
• MACD (default)

Rules: Add the above indicators to your 10 minute chart.
Only take trades between 8AM-12PM EST and/or 2AM-4AM EST.

BUY the exchange rate when the 5 WMA crosses up past
the 10 SMA and the Stochastic is signalling up, RSI > 50
and the MACD histogram >0 and MACD averages crossed up.

SELL the exchange rate when the 5 WMA crosses down past
the 10 SMA and the Stochastic is signalling down, RSI<50
and the MACD histogram <0 and MACD averages crossed down.

Stop-Loss Level: 20 pips

Happy trading

Debt Management

Compare debt management plans using
our calculator - Search online now!

www.trapped.co.uk

Forex Strategy - F

2007-05-17T11:35:00.000-07:00

Point : 69
Beware of holiday situations like the long July 4th weekend. Trading tends to be thin, and it is difficult to produce meaningful pivot points. Best to just go golfing, and forget about it. There's nothing that says you have to trade every day. Get a life.

Point : 70
If you are having trouble with your entry points, I suggest you try waiting until you see a hammer or a spinning top, and then pull the trigger. You may wait a long time, but at least you will be sure of getting a good entry point, as these particular candles are powerful precursors to a shift in price direction. Have a look at any chart and see how many of these candlesticks you can pick out. You might be surprised at how many there are. For more information on these bar formations, please read my August, 2003 edition of my newsletter: www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletter0803.htm Obviously, if you click on that link after August 1, 2003 the newsletter will be there. Before then, it won't.

Point : 71
I just returned from a meeting with a group of young traders who have been at the forex for the past two and a half months. They are making steady progress, and I am extremely proud of them. I thought I would pass along their observations that may prove helpful to your own trading. They have backed off short-term trading, and are more into position trading the forex – using a longer timeframe – taking cues from the 1 hour chart. They also believe that signals that occur on that chart are more powerful than those on the 15 min. For example, a signal on the 1 hour would have more weight than an indication on the 15 min.

Basically, what they are saying is that you should wait on a trade for confirmation on the 1 hour chart before pulling the trigger, unless of course you see an ironclad setup on the 15 min chart. Trading is shades of gray ladies and gentlemen. These ideas are working for them. That doesn't mean to say you can't experiment on your own. If you do and find something that works for you, please let me know, and I'll share it with the rest of the gang.

Point : 72:
Clarification re Aug. 22/03 chart, thanks to Bill: Bill quite rightly pointed out in the chart for August 22/03 that there were hammers at 3:01 and between 5:01 and 6:01 that didn't take. My answer to him was that such a candle should be complemented by some other indication of a shift in price direction. For example, in the cases he cited above, price did not break the down trendlines - so, in effect, the hammers' supposed effect was nullified. To conclude, bar formations that should signal a change in price direction should be accompanied by other signals, including pivot points. In other words, what happens to price around a pivot point when you see a hammer? Does the pivot point support what the candle is saying? Thanks Bill for this.

Point : 73
I was recently asked where one could find volume figures for a currency. None of the popular sites carry it. Nor is it necessary as the Forex is a very liquid market. Volume is somewhat redundant anyway in that regard. You just need to use technical analysis to trade the Forex.

Point : 74
Pay attention to that news. I had been calling for an advance in the euro and Swiss franc and, sure enough, they both popped on bad unemployment news in the U.S. September 5, 2003. News is not noise in the Forex.

Point : 75
There are “talking” bulls and bears and there are “real” bulls and bears. The real ones are reflected in volume and open interest. But, these numbers are not available for inter-bank currency trading. However, they are reported for futures markets, which represent a good proxy for sentiment because they are primarily a vehicle for speculation.

Turning points in currency markets often coincide with extremes in open interest levels, which represent extremes in speculation. The key here is to watch for extreme levels and extreme changes in both open interest and volume to signal a possible change in trend.

Open interest numbers are of little use intraday. However, knowledge of a change in trend or extreme speculation in a particular currency based on open interest and volume can be valuable information for any trader in any time frame. That’s where an understanding of how COT works can improve your chances of detecting the underlying bias to a particular FX currency based on its futures counterpart, and anticipating its next move.

As at September 2/03, the commercial traders were extremely long with their net futures positions on the euro FX and the Swiss franc FX, versus the funds, which were extremely short. When you see such extreme divergence between these two camps, you know that price will probably follow the commercial traders’ lead.

The euro FX and Swiss franc FX represented good position trades to the long side at that time. A good buy-and-hold situation for position traders. Sure enough on September 5/03 we had bad unemployment numbers coming out of the U.S., and both currencies popped. Who could have guessed?

Point : 76
I think there is a misconception out there that you have to trade only the 15 min chart. You can also trade off the 1 hr and daily charts. It just lengthens the cycle. For example, when I called the euro and Swiss franc to rise, you could have taken a position on the daily chart and rode it up. That's all I'm saying. Likewise, you can wait to take a position until you see a valid entry point on the 1 hr chart. Etc.

Point : 77
For newbie traders, it is probably best to steer clear of Mondays, the day after a holiday weekend and end-of-quarters where there is a lot of position squaring going on.

Of course, there’s more to be learned about currency trading strategy in my original book on trading and the two e-books on trading the forex – available only at currency trading strategy You automatically get all three when you order at that link. If you are reading this page, you probably already have these books, and are reaping the benefits.

Happy trading

Forex Strategy - E

2007-05-17T11:34:00.000-07:00

Point : 56
I have people asking me all the time why I don't post my trades in real time, or why they can't call me while I am involved in my own trading activities. The answer is quite simple. This page is dedicated to my belief in the old adage: "Give a man a fish, and feed him for a day - teach him how to fish, and feed him for a lifetime!"

Plus, it would be very stressful and time consuming for me to take time away from my own work (and quiet time) to interact with a discussion forum. I am sure you will understand my position on this. I have customers in over 30 countries, and it would be a nightmare for me to react to each and every nuance that came along. A chat room is in our business plan, but at this writing, I don't have any idea of when that might happen. When it does, I will certainly give you lots of advance warning.

I teach people how to fish. I don't give them the fish. I can remember when I first learned how to trade. I had my mentor sitting right by my side each and every step of the way. Then one day he upped and moved, and changed cities. He actually moved to a remote and secluded island to get away from city life. Nice move for him, but it left me in a state of panic. How could I possibly survive on my own? I can tell you, ladies and gentleman, that I really learned how to trade when I had to do it on my own, and those were real drops of sweat rolling down from my forehead all over my face.

This is about you and the market, and you mastering your innermost psyche. Anybody can learn to trade the forex my way. But, what will get you every time is that little inner voice doubting your every move. And, then there's fear and greed that will bite you real hard too. It's the psychology of your mind that you must master. You must become disciplined and patient to a fault. You must react only to bona fide signals, that I teach here. Otherwise, you would be better off heading out to your local casino, and taking your chances there.

The forex is not about gambling. It is about running a business, where there will be gains and losses. Your every effort and constant struggle should be to get a grip on those times when price goes against you. You are in charge. You can get the upper hand on price by trading "smartly," and using good money management techniques, that I also teach here. You won't win every time. But, with my system, you should come out ahead seven out of 10 times. The trick is to limit your losses to small ones, and let your profits soar.

Getting back to going solo without an instructor at your side during each and every step of the way, I recall a friend of mine telling me how he learned to fly. After several practice flights with his instructor in the cockpit with him, they landed back at the airfield, and the instructor turned to Pal and said, "Now, it's your turn to take it up. I'm getting out. You're on your own buddy." Talk about anxiety and stress.

Well, Pal took off and landed all by his little 'ole lonesome. But, he was pale and his knees were knocking when he got out of the plane back at home base. He has soloed ever since. It's his passion now. There's something about being able to do it yourself, without a partner holding your hand all the time. It's called "confidence boosting." If you can fly or trade by yourself successfully, there probably isn't anything else in life you couldn't do equally as well. Actually, Navy pilots who land on aircraft carriers make the best traders. But, that's another story for another time.

I can tell you my friend learned more about flying in that one solo session than he did all the times his instructor went up with him. Same with trading. You can do it. Just believe it so. Dedicate yourself to becoming a master at it. Analyze, read, study, think. Ask questions. There is no such thing as a stupid question. Become passionate about your trading. Don't think of it as a get-rich-quick scheme. Do it because you love it. Do it as if you would do it anyway, even if you weren't making money. There has to be an element of fun in it for you. If it's all work, and no play, well you know the answer to that one.

Don't get me wrong. I am here to answer your questions whenever you need my help. I am dedicated to your success, and your happy times with your family. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to get an e-mail from you telling me how this has turned your life around, and that you are now happily making money trading the forex my way.

Point : 57
Don't get hung up on reading bars when you think you have caught the major trend. Once the trend is unfolding, you then look for a place to enter - around a pivot point. You look to reading bars to signal a change in the direction of the major trend.

A double top in a downtrend means nothing. A double bottom does. So, a price rejection bar or double bottom in a major downtrend would signal a short-term reversal, and that's all. But, once you see the major trend unfolding – say, on the short side – you pretend you don't know how to spell the word long. Stick with the overall major trend that is unfolding.

These comments relate specifically to the beginning hours of London trading, which is when the major trend reveals itself.

Point : 58
You need to get to the point where, when you look at a chart without any visual aids, you see indications as to where price is going. This has to become "second nature." At that point, you can trade with ease. And, your stress level will go down, because you will be in control of the market, not the other way around. This only comes with practice, day after day. This takes patience, and staying power. You must hang in there until you get it. Winners never quit; quitters never win.

Point : 59
At first, if you are fearful, don't trade until you see what you consider to be an ironclad set-up that you are familiar with – an easy one. That may mean waiting out a session or two, but that's okay. There's no rush. I find with some people they seem to have to prove something to themselves or someone else. Some people think they have to scalp all day long for some reason that is beyond me. After all, you are in control. Take your time.

Relax. Enjoy it. Sooner or later, you will see a bona fide set-up that you recognize, and bingo you're in. When in doubt, do nothing. When there is no doubt, do something, do anything – pull the trigger.

Point : 60
Unfortunately, you will not always get all the signals you need to pull the trigger. After all, this is as much an art as it is a science. You cannot always be 100% sure that you are doing the right thing. If you wait forever to get all your ducks lined up, you may wait a long time. My favorite analogy goes something like this: Pretend you are sitting in your garage at home wanting to go to work, but you are waiting for all the street lights along the way to turn green before you pull out of the driveway.

Guess what folks? You'll never get to work. Same with trading. Sometimes, you just have to make an educated guess (based on the currency trading strategy recommendations contained at this site) and go with it. You won't always be right, but this isn't about being right. It is about making a decision, sticking with it, and reversing course if you have to. Accept getting stopped out as God's way of kicking you to a higher level. Just one more step to success.

Point : 61
Thanks to Tom for this: There are two choices to be made – LONG or SHORT when a certain point in the session(M1, S1, R2, Pivot ... etc.) is reached. The BASIC rule is BUY (go long) below the pivot in the S1, S2, M1, M3 zone and SELL (go short) above the pivot in the Zone R1, R2, M2, M4. Obviously it isn’t as simple as this and other indicators such as MACD divergence, reading bars, trends, and patterns all add to the question LONG or SHORT. Bang on Tom! Way to go!

Point : 62
I have said previously that you should make your buy/sell decisions around pivot points. However, for example, if price is meandering in between pivot points and then does a double top, that would lead me to believe that price is going down. So, there are times when you would want to make your move before waiting for a pivot point to be hit. Of course, there's nothing wrong with waiting for price to do so and then reacting.

Point : 63
Thanks to Harry for this one: He indicated that I sometimes refer to "price rejection." And, what does that mean. It simply means that a price reversal bar has formed, causing the bar in the middle to have a higher high than the bars on either side of it. The price bar in the middle is essentially a key reversal bar. And, what you have is a "swing change." That is, price is reversing course, and heading south. The same holds true when price is reversing and heading north. You then have the bar in the middle of the three-bar pattern with a lower low than the two on either side, and the one in the middle is the key reversal bar.

Point : 64
Repetition is the key to success in any endeavor in life, including trading the forex. The more you practice trade, the more you trade real money, the better you get. You just have to keep at it - over and over and over again. Persistence is the key. You're bound to get better at something if you do in constantly and don't quit. Don't let the market psyche you out. When you have a down day, just treat it as experience. Lessons learned. But, try to learn from your mistakes. Keep those journals going. If it's not written, it doesn't exist.

Point : 65
I get the impression that some of you are not paying enough attention to trendlines. They are very powerful. Price WILL change direction when it breaks the trend, regardless of what other indicators may be telling you. So, draw them, and let them be your guide. REMINDER: In an uptrend, as we saw June 25/03, as long as the trendline holds, buy the dips. In a downtrend, sell the rallies. In an uptrend, don't look to go short EVER! In a downtrend, don't look to go long EVER! Plain and simple.

Point : 66
Thanks to Stu G. for this one. I have been harping on using MACD only for divergence. But, Stu is right. I do on occasion, as I did June 26th/03, use MACD to confirm the trend. If the price trend has been consistently down over a period of time, then it could very well be that when price tries to go counter-trend, it may just be a retracement or a temporary move in the opposite direction. I usually like to stick with the major trend. In a downtrend, sell the rallies; in an uptrend, buy the dips.

Point : 67
I was asked by some of my readership what happened Friday, June 27, with all the wide-range bars on the 15-min chart. That was a tough day to trade, even for seasoned professionals. Lots of whip-sawing. Lots of stops got taken out. Trading patterns were dominated by end-of-quarter positioning. A good day to stand clear. So, be prepared for the next end-of-quarter, and the one after that, and the one after that, etc. Mark those dates on your calendar. Trading is as much about being organized and prepared, as it is about being good at it.

Point : 68
Marathon runners have only one thing on their mind when they are running – to cross the finish line. They NEVER look back. Same too with trading. You should focus on surviving for the long haul. Sure, you will stumble and fall. But, just pick yourself up, just yourself off, and carry on. Winners never quit, and quitters never win.

Forex Strategy - D

2007-05-17T11:33:00.000-07:00

Point : 43
May 23 was supposed to be an M2/M4 day, given the up-close for the last session. But, the actual range came in at Pivot Point/R2. Trading is "shades of gray" ladies and gentleman. Pivot points are not cast in stone. But, they are usually pretty close.

That day, the combination of Pivot Point and R2 achieved better than the average daily range for the Euro, well within the confines of logic behind my pivot point definitions. The central Pivot Point becomes a buy point (read, support), when it is breached to the upside convincingly, and so it became a reasonable starting point for price to commence its "range-finding mission" for the session. Likewise, R2 is a sell point (read, resistance), and so it was a viable target for selling pressure, as the Euro exhausted its "search" for the end of its range for the session.

The main point in all of this is that the full range for the Euro was achieved within the parameters of the pivot point logic and rules, which is the most important point to get out of all of this. By that I mean that the four pivot points below the middle pivot point are all "buy" candidates, and the four pivot points above the middle pivot point (including R2) are all "sell" possibilities. Achieving the full range, or more than that as was the case May 23, is what it's all about, more so than strictly adhering to the M1/M3 or M2/M4 windows of "buying" and "selling" opportunity.

I hope you are beginning to see the power of pivot points in action. You only buy and sell in and around them – not in between, which is what we call "NO MAN'S LAND." Not the place to enter trades. The only caveat here is where price forms patterns like we saw that day above R2 with the double-top/railway tracks combination. Such a reversal phenomenon, especially with two distinct formations occurring at the same time, cannot be ignored.

But, what is significant here is the fact that this "double whammy" took place after price had penetrated R2 to the upside, which to me looked like an exhaustion area – considering the fact that the last point of resistance had been broken. Then, you look for convincing evidence that price is going to continue its trek north, or do a u-e, as it did in this case, and head south.

There are important lessons to be learned in all of the charts I post at this site. So, please study them carefully. There are parallels, as I am sure you can see, between one session’s price action and that of the previous one. In fact, given the nature of currencies trending well, every day pretty much looks the same, except for different actual ranges and different low and high points (read, iterations of the nine possible pivot point lows and highs).

Price will always determine which set of pivot points it is going to work with, and that is why you always follow price's lead. That's also why I call price the "fifth indicator," and perhaps the most important one of the five I work with. By now, you will have learned more about the other four indicators, as you studied the previous currency trading strategy tips.

Please study the charts I post at this site on a daily basis, as they offer important clues that occur each and every day! If you understand what you see in those charts, you can't help but prosper with your trading on a consistent basis.

Point : 44
Don’t be greedy. I heard it said recently by one of my clients that he walked away from a session with only 150 pips in his pocket, and left a lot on the table. Boy, for somebody coming from the stock world, as he did, he should been thankful for his catch of the day. The point is, if you start out as a newbie looking to carve out only 20 pips per session, then anything beyond that is gravy, and it will surely come over time.

But, don’t forget the old adage, “Nobody can argue over profits in the bank.” If you see a profit, and want to take it, then do so, and be happy. You’ll live to see another day, and take some more profits. Just don’t always grab for the brass ring. This isn't about always hitting home runs. This is about having staying power, and taking one base at a time. When you have good reason to exit a trade, make your move, and be done with it.

Point : 45:
Former Cleveland Brown's coach, the legendary Paul Brown, taught his football players a systematical/methodical procedure of understanding tasks to attain successful results in face of unforeseen, variable difficulties.

So too with foreign exchange trading. Forex trading requires adherence to a set of currency trading strategy rules, which I have set out at this site.

A wide body of research in behavioral finance shows that traders consider the loss of $1 twice as painful as the pleasure received from a gain of $1. That's why they take more risks to avoid losses than to realize gains. They end up buying high and selling low, contrary to conventional wisdom. Follow my currency trading strategy rules, and you'll avoid getting a closely cropped haircut when the forex tanks on you, as it did May 28.

Point : 46
I had somebody ask me why I waited until 03:00:00am New York time to make my move, in the mean time missing potential in advance of that timeframe. The answer is quite simple. That is when London trading kicks in, and that is generally the busiest session on the forex. You will notice that is when the Euro usually starts its major trend to find its average daily range of 76 pips. Those pips are usually put in within the first 12 hours of trading. Check it out for yourself. It happens each and every day, over and over again.

Point : 47
"Ascending Triangle": Price forms higher lows, and looks like somewhat of a horizontal line on top and a rising lower trend line. This formation is normally bullish. You take its height at its highest point, and measure that distance from the upper line to obtain the upside target.

Point : 48
By combining "pivot point readings" with other signals – like divergence, multi-tops, trendline breakouts, triangular patterns, etc. – you can pretty much tell where price is going next. Normally, I would say that you should only enter trades in and around pivot points. But, given the large distances that can sometimes happen between pivot point areas, you then have to be on the lookout for other evidence of future price direction.

Like I keep saying, trading is "shades of gray." Nothing is always black and white in this business. Trading is as much an art as it is a science. That all said and done, when price does encounter a pivot point, you can see that that point has a powerful influence over price. So, always be on the alert for that next point of interaction with the next pivot point, as it will have a distinct bearing on what happens next.

Point : 49
If you are trying to catch the major trend that unfolds during the London hours, but are afraid of getting your entry point figured out correctly, wait to catch the next entry point, as the Euro "reaches" for its average daily range of 76 pips. The next entry point will occur in and around the next pivot point that price passes through. Or, you may catch price as it tries to retest the pivot point it just went through. That way, you won't run the risk of getting in too early, when the trend tries to unfold in early trading. Sometimes, price fakes you out, and goes in one direction for a while, and then reverses course, before finally picking its direction. My favorite saying is, "He/she who procrastinates wins." What you are giving up, of course, are those initial pips of the trend, which may amount to, say 30 give or take, but you are more sure of capturing the remaining 46, as the major trend of the session matures.

Point : 50
I would like to remind you that the pivot points above the central "Pivot Point" have a "sell" bias, and the pivot points below the central "Pivot Point" have a buy bias. These biases hold true unless price action turns a pivot point's bias from sell to buy or buy to sell – i.e., from resistance to support or support to resistance.

On June 6, 2003, you would have observed from price action that M3 held its bias, but the pivot points below the central pivot points were turned from buy, or support, points into sell, or resistance, points. Of course, price action determined this.

The other important point to make is that when the major trend reveals itself, as it did on that day (and does every day, within 12 hours of the start of trading for the session), you should think along the lines of the bias. That day's bias in early trading was "short." Meaning, you should have forgotten how to spell the word "long." Scalpers want it both ways, but that doesn't work in the forex – unless, of course, you want a short haircut. I say this because currencies trend well. Don't second-guess the trend until it reverses itself with bona fide signals. In other words, don't sell to soon, and don't buy too soon.

Point : 51
Keep those trading journals going! If you always trade the way you always traded, you'll always get what you always got.

Point : 52
There is nothing that says you have to trade often, or even every day. In other markets, most professional traders catch only three to four really great trades a week, if that! Not so with the Forex. Here, the timeframe is more like a day. However, if you don't see any "ironclad" trades, then don't trade. Turn if off and go golfing.

Slow down, and drive the speed limit. This isn't a race. After all, you are in control of the market, not the other way around. Don't feel pressured into doing something you feel uncomfortable about. Wait for those "perfect set-ups" to make your move. Same goes for those "bad-hair days." If you are feeling out of it, sit on your hands, or go do something else. Take charge of your trading life, before it takes charge of you, and your money.

Point : 53
I often get asked what parameters I use for MACD. I use the standard default settings. They work just fine. After all, all you should be using MACD for is divergence.

Point : 54
I have said it before that you should only trade in and around pivot points. The only exception to that rule is if you see a trendline breakout or a bar pattern, like price rejection, that gives a clear signal that price is about to reverse course. If price is in between pivot points, and you are not sure what to do, don't do anything! If there's nothing to do, don't do it. Patience is the hardest thing to master in the forex, or any market for that matter.

Point : 55
The major trend for the Euro usually starts revealing itself as the London hours kick in. Up to that point, price may "bait and switch" you into thinking it is going one way, when in fact it is setting up to go the other way. It can easily fake you out, before the London hours start to unfold. So, be patient and wait. Look for clues coming out of the previous session as to where price might be going ultimately. Did you see a "head and shoulders" pattern?

Did you see a triangle pattern? Do you see price trending in any one direction over a period of time. Do you see any divergence in MACD (on the 1 hr and 15 min charts)? Do you see any channels, where price is looking to break either way? Play Sherlock Holmes. A little bit of detective work will go along way before you dive into the new session. Like the Boy Scouts say, "Be prepared!"

Be in charge of your trading. Put your emotions in your hip pocket, and save them for later. Run your trading as if you were running a "bricks and mortar" business. Same principles and rules apply. No different. This is not about betting and gambling. This is serious business. After all, your hard-earned money is at stake. Protect it at all costs.

Forex Strategy - C

2007-05-17T11:30:00.000-07:00

Point : 28
Although I have said that there are only four clues that you have to look at for price direction – "bar reading," MACD divergence, pivot points, and trendlines – there is actually a fifth. It's called "price." Price is the number one indicator in the sky. It will tell you where it wants to go. Let it point the way. It's like playing cards. Wait for it to reveal its "hand." You just have to be patient and wait. It's called "following the leader."

Point : 29
I was asked recently about multiple lots – in other words, buying or selling more
than one lot at a time. You can either "load up the boat" at your entry point, or you can go at it one at a time – adding additional lot(s), as price moves through each successive pivot point, as it "reaches" for the end of its range. If you are confident that you are "with the trend," and are using good money management techniques, then there is nothing wrong with taking more position(s) along the way.

Or, you can do both – load up to begin with, and buy/sell more, as price progresses through pivot points in its tear to the finish line. Don't bail too soon. Remember, currencies trend well (especially the major trend), and price knows where it wants to go. Let it take you there. Use the "five" indicators – "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, "price," and trendlines – to make your trading decisions.

Point : 30
Be careful about taking trades in between pivot points. This is NO MAN'S LAND, and dangerous territory. Better trades are made in and around pivot points.

Point : 31
Make sure to take the time to draw pivot points on your 15 min chart, which should be your main focus. This is like the radar screen in the cockpit of an airplane. It is difficult to trade (fly) without points of reference to look at. You don't need to draw them all. They probably won't all fit anyway. At least have those that are close to price action plotted on the chart. You can also plot lines on the 1 hr and 5 min, but you shouldn't be spending much time there, so it may be a waste of time. But, can't hurt.

You should also draw trendlines. Where price breaks a trend at a juncture with a pivot point, this is very powerful evidence that price is going the other way. Plot your MACD divergences. The more you see on the screen, the better your trades will be. Draw a line down the screen (on the chart of course) delineating start of session, and where you got your OHLC from to calculate the pivot points for the current session. I think you get the "point," pardon the expression.

Point : 32
Just to re-hash and beat an old drum, the 5 min chart is like the trim tab on a sailboat, for you sailors out there. It is small and insignificant, seemingly, but very powerful as it assists in "steadying" the course. Same too with trading, looking at the 5 min every once in a while will give you some insight into what is happening "underneath" the current 15 min bar that is forming. This is important, especially at the end of a run, where price might be trying to do an "end run" or "sneak attack" in the opposite direction to what you're thinking, while you're not watching, of course.

But, like I say, don't dwell in "5 min land" as ex-stock traders are wont to do. They are scalpers by nature, but will very quickly get scalped by the forex, as one of my new customers has recently found out the hard way. He now puts a trade on (with stop in place for sure), and goes to the airport to pick up company, or goes outside to clean the swimming pool – only to come back, and see how much money he has made by not obsessing over every little movement. I'm not saying don't pay attention, but what I am saying is too close is too close. Once you catch the trend, and enter a trade because you saw something in "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, trendlines, or price action, let price steer the course, and "wait patiently" for the next event that will cause you to take action.

Of course, that action will be taken again because you saw something in "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, trendlines, or price action. If you don't see anything significant, then DON'T DO ANYTHING. Sit on your hands. Don't press enter whatever you do! Oh, and before I leave this point, with a market maker I recommend, you don't have to leave the 15 minute chart to "peek" at the 5 min chart to see what's going on at that lower level, because they show the tick-by-tick action right on the 15 min chart, as the next 15 min bar is waiting to form.

Point : 33
I was recently asked how many signals he should wait for before pulling the trigger. As you recall, I earlier said that you should only take direction from "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, trendlines – and price itself. Now, how many of these should fire before you engage your trade? Well, certainly, one is enough to set the tone – but all the more convincing where you have a couple or more all lining up and saying the same thing. For example, recently the Euro was in a downtrend from the session just ending, entering the new session still in a downtrend, when price did a double top at the nearest pivot point as the new session started. Well, there you have three things telling you what to do – go short, of course. We had the downtrend, the double top, and the double top banging its head up against the pivot point. Lots of evidence that price was southward bound. I think you get the point.

An analogy here: If you're sitting in your car at home waiting to go to work in the morning, and you are waiting for all the street lights to turn green on the way to work before you start the car, you will never get to work. So, the more green lights the better, but one is enough to get you going.

Point : 34
And now for some psychology. For you newbies out there, your self-esteem will grow the more trades you make. You will not always be right. You will make mistakes. That's only normal when you are first starting out, and even after you have been at it for a while. Don't beat up on yourself when you fail. Just say to yourself, "Next!" You must move on. If you are using wise money management techniques, like 20-30 pip stops, you will survive to see another trade. This is all about preserving staying power.

Don't second-guess your indicators (remember, "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, trendlines, and price). You wouldn't dispute the dials and gauges in a plane, or you'd crash and burn. So, why doubt what your indicators are telling you. You must believe in them, and take "action" when they tell you to do so, BUT ONLY WHEN THEY TELL YOU TO DO SO! Have the courage to do so. And, now for the big one.
NEVER LISTEN TO ANYBODY ELSE. TAKE YOUR OWN COUNSEL. CLOSE YOUR EARS WHEN YOU ARE TRADING. IT'S YOU AND YOUR CURRENCY. YOU HAVE
NOBODY ELSE TO TURN TO. SO, DO IT. AND, STAY AWAY FROM NEGATIVE PEOPLE. DON'T TALK TO ANYBODY ABOUT THIS BUSINESS, UNLESS THEY ARE AS DEAD SERIOUS ABOUT IT AS YOU ARE. OTHERWISE, THEY WILL DRAG YOU DOWN. AND, BE HUMBLE. SAVE YOUR BRAGGING RIGHTS FOR LATER. THE FOREX WILL TAKE YOU DOWN, IF YOU TRY TO BECOME LARGER THAN LIFE. And, finally, focus on success.

Be careful what you think about. Your thoughts will
mould your actions and outcomes. If you are committed to the end result being successful, then you will get there. If you are always fearful, that affect your psyche. When you stumble and fail, just pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and get on with it. Don't be intimidated by a mistake, or a wrong decision. You will get better at this, especially if you keep a journal of all your trades, and study it to death. Be a professional. Be prepared.

Point : 35
I recently had a customer ask me what to do when price had headed north through all the pivot points for quite a run and lots of money in the bank, stalled at R2, and then continued its journey north. Answer: R2 is normally resistance. When price penetrated R2 headed north, and couldn't fall back through R2, R2 became support. It was a buy signal when price decided to continue its trek north. Remember, price is King. It will go where it wants to go. You must follow its lead, even if it already has put in quite a tear in one direction – even beyond its average daily range. It will keep going in that direction if it wants to.

Remember, currencies trend well. Don't buy too soon, don't sell too soon. Wait for convincing evidence that it has made up its mind. In this case, price played with R2, but never punched down through it with any sort of notion that it wanted to reverse course. Once it made up its mind to continue the journey north, all you had to do was follow suit. Don't fall prey to oxygen starvation at high altitudes like R2. Trust your indicators. Do what they tell you. This isn't about falling for your gut feel that price has gone "too far" up. It could go even further – a lot further, in this case – if it wants to.

Point : 36
You should not execute trades, as a general rule, in between pivot points. That area is NO MAN'S LAND. Wait for price to make up its mind on direction at a support or resistance level, supplemented by other indications of price direction – "reading bars," MACD divergence, reaction to pivot point, trendline breakouts.

Point : 37
Don't use MACD for anything other than divergence. Recently, MACD on the 15 was trending up, leading unsuspecting traders to believe that price was headed north. However, price did a u-e at the main pivot point, and headed south to find the other end of its range at S1. You wouldn't see this sudden shift in MACD, because it is a lagging indicator. So, to summarize, just use MACD for divergence and nothing else.

Point : 38
You should only take trades in and around pivot points – not in between, as stated previously. When price action centers around a pivot point, then take a look at the five minute to see what's going on behind the scenes. Because, you should have been focused on only the 15 min up to the point of price interaction with the pivot point.

Now, you want to pay attention to what price has up its sleeve. In the above example price faked out unsuspecting trades when it trended up through the main pivot point, only to tank as it did a price rejection bar on the 15 min chart. Of course, you wouldn't have seen this coming if you were only looking at the 15 min. You would have seen the price reversal on the 5 min, and been ready to head south with price.

Point : 39
The absence of divergence between MACD and price simply suggests that MACD is confirming that the price trend is intact. But, don't be fooled by this synergy. Please review strategy number 40 to see what I mean.

Point : 40
Resistance levels (M3, R1, M4, and R2) are levels (or sell zones) where sellers can be expected to outnumber buyers, and push price lower. Correspondingly, support levels (S2, M1, S1, and M2) are levels (or buy zones) where buyers can be expected to outnumber sellers, and push price higher. These expectations are based on my program's interpretation of buyer/seller interaction in the last session.

I think you will agree, after close inspection of the results of my pivot point calculations, that price hesitates, pauses, and decides on its course of action in and around pivot points. That's why you should never enter trades in between pivot points, while price is in transit, and in a state of transition.

Point : 41
Don't let anybody scare you off the forex by saying it is too risky. It is actually less risky than trading any other market, that is exchange-based. The forex cannot be "engineered," as stocks and commodities can be. Also, being a true seamless 24-hour market, there is less of a chance of your stops not kicking in. That's because the forex is highly liquid, trading ~US$1.5 trillion each and every day. It is the most liquid financial market in the world, bar none. And, you get good fills, with fast execution times.

Point : 42
On May 23, we have had a rather unusual day, in that price "reached" beyond its average range to put in 135 pips in two hours, just above R2, after starting its climb at the main Pivot Point. The Euro reversed course at the double top, and broke down through R2, to mark the end of its run to achieve its average daily range, or better in this case, within 12 hours of the start of trading for the current session. You would have noticed, of course, that the double top formation was also a "railway tracks" bar formation (if you just happened to have been looking at bars, instead of candles).

Those two patterns occurring at the same time are a pretty powerful indication that price has run its course. So, keep your eyes peeled for price patterns per se, but also for combinations of patterns occurring at the same time.

Forex Strategy - B

2007-05-17T11:29:00.000-07:00

Point : 14
When you are first starting out, pick one currency of the four major pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF) to trade, and become a specialist in it. I would personally recommend the Euro, especially if you are going to be asking me questions, as that's what I focus on with my clients around the world. Get to know its rhythm. When you are doing well with it, then move on, and trade the other three major pairs, as you see fit. When you are in learning mode, you will have your hands full trying to figure out what to look for, and how to manage your trades – enough so that you don't want to be skipping back and forth between currencies.

Point : 15
Keep a log of all your trades – both good and bad. Analyze where you went right and wrong, and vow not to repeat those situations that could have been done better. This is all part of being organized as a "professional" trader - with good habits. This is not about gun-slinging and winging it with "Hail Mary" passes.

Point : 16
Important point here: If price action opens in the upper end of the projected range for the session (all the way up to R2, and beyond) – in other words, in the sell area (that area above the central pivot point) – and there are other suggestions that price is too high (such as a particular bar reading, MACD divergence, or trendline breakout), then price has probably achieved the upper end of its price range for the session.

The same holds true where price action opens in the lower end of the projected range for the session (all the way down to S2, and beyond) – in other words, in the buy area (that area below the central pivot point) – and there are other suggestions that price is too low (such as a particular bar reading, MACD divergence, or trendline breakout), then price has probably achieved the lower end of its price range for the session.

Point : 17
If there is nothing to do, then don't do it. Don't just do something because your "gut" tells you to. That can get you in a lot of trouble in this business. Only react to bona fide signals provided by the four indicators talked about above – "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, and trendline analysis.

Point : 18
Only use an "industrial strength" market maker with the lowest pip spread in the industry

Point : 19
Occasionally, you will see a huge spike up in price, as we did 11 May 03. This just happened to be on a Sunday, shortly after re-commencement of trading, after the weekend respite. Ordinarily, I would take the OHLC numbers from Friday, but given the nature of the wild swing up that evening on one of the 15 min bars, I would then use the OHLC numbers from Sunday night's session close to get a better reading on support and resistance levels for the next session. This is, of course, if you are using a market maker that delineates its break between trading sessions in the late evening - anywhere between 20:59:50 and 24:00 (midnight).

Point : 20
Former stock traders take note: I say former because I don't honestly know why you would ever want to go back to stocks after having tasted the forex. Don't over-trade the forex. This is not a scalping market! If you have to scalp, do it in slow motion. Currencies trend well. Don't buy too soon in a downtrend, and don't sell too soon in an uptrend. Watch for trendline breakouts to know when to make your move.

Point : 21
You cannot succeed at trading the forex unless you are TOTALLY committed to trading, and trading it. This is not something to be played with. If you are not going to take it seriously, then try something else.

Point : 22
Put your emotions in your hip pocket. This is a business, and should be treated as such. If you have any bad habits, the forex will fix them real quick.

Point : 23
Important point here: If you deem the major trend for the current session, based on everything you have learned to this point, to be down, then think DOWN. Sell rallies. Don't look to buy, or you might get whipsawed to death. Likewise, if you deem the major trend for the current session to be up, based on everything you have learned to this point, then think UP. Buy the dips. Don't look to sell. Former stock traders fall prey to wanting to have it both ways. Maybe, when you get real good at this, you can try. But for now, think one way, and save yourself the grief.

Point : 24
Another important point here: The major rally for the Euro begins after two am New York time. These are the London hours – the busiest in the forex, bar none. The Euro always – session after session – puts in, on average, 76 pips during the first 12 hours from that time forward. Whether you want to believe it or not, the Euro, once it makes up its mind what the major trend is going to be during those 12 hours, will "drive" to the other end of its range (76 pips) within those 12 hours. So catch the trend, and ride it. Now, it won't be a straight line, of course. Even an airplane taking off or landing encounters some bumps along the way. Same too with the Euro. Once it picks its direction, it will meander all the way to the other end of its range.

This will "fake" the dumb money out. They never know what happens to them.
To conclude: If the Euro wants to have a down trend during those 12 hours, it will achieve its 76 pips south of where it started. So, think DOWN. If the Euro wants to have an up trend from during those 12 hours, it will achieve its 76 pips north of where it started. So, think UP. The Euro either goes up or down during those 12 hours – not both. Here, I am talking about the major trend, of course. Ah yes, there will be rallies or dips along the way, depending on the direction of the trend (down or up), but like I said earlier, SELL THE RALLIES IN A DOWNTREND, AND BUY THE DIPS IN AN UPTREND. That's all there is to it.

Point : 25
Something to think about: If you get the above strategy - number 26, then you're going to love this one. It will test your nerve. If you buy into the idea of the major trend unfolding during those 12 hours (check it out here every day, and you'll see living proof), then why not try to get in when it starts to unfold, and "ride it." That will take nerves of steel, because the Euro will go against you from time to time – but not enough so to take out your initial stop. From a risk/reward ratio point of view, you are risking 20 pips to gain 76.

Not a bad ratio. What I am trying to say here is why not just put your trade on, set the stop, and go clean the swimming pool while the Euro meanders its way to the end of its range. What spooks a lot of people out is when they stare at price action after they have engaged their trade, and they over-react every time the Euro hiccups. Just leave it alone. So, what's the worst that can happen? You can get stopped out right? Chances are you won't.

If you catch the major trend, chances are very much in your favor that you will be richer by at least US$760 per lot. If you trade the action all the way through the trend, you may get beat up real bad, and lose anyway. Let the Euro lead you, not the other way around.

Point : 26
Every once in a while, I would encourage you to step back from the daily intraday action, and have a look at it from 30,000 feet. Sometimes, we can get too close to it, and not see the trees in the forest. On the daily chart, if you plot trendlines and look for divergences, you will learn a lot about where price is going to go "next." Of course, that's what we all want to know, right? Not only do trendline breakouts and MACD divergences tell a "big" story, but where a daily bar closes will offer up a clue as to where price will likely go in the next session. Study the chart, and you'll see what I mean.

For those of you who don't know what this is all about, the little line pointing off to the right of a price bar is the "close" for the daily session. The little line pointing off to the left is the "open" for that session. In the forex world, the close of one session automatically becomes the open for the next session, as this is a very liquid market, and there are no gaps in trading.

I just thought it wise to pause and reflect at a higher level from time to time. Looking at things top-down is sometimes healthy, and a wise thing to do. We can sometimes get caught up in the minutiae of the daily flurry of price movements, and lose perspective of the bigger picture unfolding above us.

Point : 27
To reiterate, there are just a "few" things you have to watch out for, and be "patient" for set-ups to occur. Don't just pull the trigger because you "think" it's time to do so. Wait for bona fide "signals." There are only "four" clues you have to look for: "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot point breakthroughs/tests/violations, and trendline breakouts. That's it folks. That's all it takes to succeed in this wonderful business called forex trading. No other bells and whistles or toys are required, contrary to what you may have learned before. The hardest part for you will be to "unlearn" everything you knew about trading before. Just give your head a shake, and it will go away.

Forex Strategy - A

2007-05-17T11:28:00.000-07:00

Point : 1
When you are just starting out, strive to carve out 20 pips per session, and that’s it. Then, turn it off, and study some more. When you get really good at it, you can then “graduate” to higher returns. So, set your goal at 20 pips and stick to it, until you are a grand master at this wonderful “business” called forex trading. I stress the word business. This is not a game, especially where your “hard-earned money” is involved.

Point : 2
When you first start out in any particular session, look at the 1 hr chart to get an overall perspective on trend from one session to the next, and what it’s likely shaping up to be at the beginning of the upcoming new session.

Point : 3
Only look at the 5 min chart if you absolutely have to see what’s behind the current 15 min bar – especially where the bar is elongated, and may have just penetrated a pivot point; in other words, is price reversing course on the 5 min chart, which would obviously not yet be reflected on the 15 min chart?

Point : 4
Don’t dwell on the 5 min chart, as it contains a lot of “noise” that will whipsaw you to death

Point : 5
MACD rules on the 15 min chart. Even if MACD is, say, trending up on the 1 hr chart, if it is trending down on the 15 min chart, that’s what you take your cue from. That’s not to say a shift in price direction is not in the works. It just means it’s coming, but not yet. In the meantime, you don’t want to miss what’s happening “in the now,” which is what is reflected in the 15 min chart

Point : 6
If MACD is trending down on the 15 min chart, and price is wanting to go north, price will sooner than later head south as it perhaps bounces off a pivot point, or gets turned around at a juncture caught by one of the other three “tools” you should be using (“reading bars,” MACD divergence, or trendline analysis). Same thing if MACD is trending up, and price is trying to head south.

Point : 7
Only use MACD for divergence, not for buy or sell signals. It is a lagging indicator, and as such is useless as a trigger. It is too slow for that in the forex world.

Point : 8
Again, MACD divergence on the 15 min chart is more significant than what you see on the 1 hr chart in the near-term. For those of you who don’t understand what divergence means, keep looking at my own personal forex trading examples on this page on a daily basis for examples of divergence. Basically, what it means is where you see MACD waves “waving” in the opposite direction to price action. That’s why I connect the top of the waves (in a downtrend) and the bottom of the waves (in an uptrend) to illustrate that the waves are “waving” higher in an uptrend and lower in a downtrend – in the opposite direction to where price is going.

Point : 9
Always “protect” your money by using 20-30 pip stops. Mental stops are okay, but not if you are dead serious about using a “disciplined” approach to managing your money. You will lose three out of ten trades. The three losses should be kept to 20-30 pips. Your wins will by far surpass your small losses, and that’s what stop-losses are all about.

Don’t be afraid to lose. Even professional batters strike out six out of 10 times. Lions are only successful 20% of the time in their chase for the kill. Professional golfers lose 95% of the time. Professional poker players lose 50% of the time. So, your chances are better at trading the forex, using my system of course, than in any other venue. Even businesses have “bad inventory.” And, life in general is not always “100%” for sure.

Point : 10
That all said and done, if you entered a trade close to a pivot point, or a particular significant bar pattern (like a double top, for instance, or a trendline breakout), place your stop on the other side (but not too close to) the event that caused you to take action. This is because price has a tendency to snap back to that situation that caused it to bolt away from it in the first place. If you follow the 20-30 pip stop rule, but a 33 pip stop on the other side of that event would safeguard you against such a reaction, then so much the better. So, yes the stop rule is 20-30 pips, but within reason of course.

Point : 11
Stops (read “stop-loss”) are for insurance purposes only – not necessarily for taking profits. However, you can most certainly employ “trailing stops,” whereby you keep moving your stop up (or down, whichever the case may be) to protect your profits, as price advances, or declines.

Point : 12
Only use “reading bars,” MACD divergence, pivot points, and trendline analysis in your forex trading toolkit. That’s all you need for this market. Be a technical bigot. Focus on pure technical analysis, and avoid funnymentals. Even news is factored into price action, so you don’t need to be up on it each and every nano
second.

Point : 13
And now for the tough part. I know my documentation says that the forecast low and high for the next trading session can be M1/M3 or M2/M4. However, trading is shades of gray. It is not a black and white business. If it were, the world would be paved in gold, and everybody would be rich.

Now, we wouldn’t want that would we? The forex would be nothing more than a Church at the end of a road connected to a river bank at the other end with nothing in between. The point I am trying to make is that the “actual” low and high for the next session could very well be any combination of M1, M2, M3, and M4. It could be M1/M4, M2/M3, or combinations of the other five pivot points.

The M1/M3 and M2/M4 calculations are just guideposts, but are not poured in concrete. Price is the number one indicator. It will determine what the low and high are going to be. And one other thing, you should use these forecasts in conjunction with the other three “tools” in your forex trading toolkit – “reading bars,” MACD divergence, and trendline analysis.

In other words, if price has been trending down from the past session into the current one, price is trading at, say, M3, and price is still going down, then M3 may very well be the high for the new session, regardless of the fact that my system may have called for M4 to be the high. So, use the pivot points in conjunction with other three possible signals – “reading bars,” MACD divergence, and trendline analysis.

I have seen it happen, as in the example just given, where price was trending down from one session to the next right through M3 at the open of the next session – simultaneous with the formation of a “double top” bar pattern. Well, there you have three indications that price was headed south for sure. And, I believe MACD was also trending down in that particular case. So, that was another clue that the high for the session had probably already been put in.

Technical Analysis

2007-05-17T11:26:00.000-07:00

Introduction to Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is research of market dynamics that
is done mainly with the help of charts and with the purpose
of forecasting future price development. Technical analysis
comprises several approaches to the study of price movement
which are interconnected in the framework of one harmonious
theory.

This type of analysis studies the price movement on the market
by means of analyzing three market factors: price, volumes,
and, in case of study of futures contracts’ market, of an open
interest (number of open positions). Of these three factors the
primary one for technical analysis is the prices, while the
alterations in other factors are studies mainly in order to confirm
the correctness of the identified price trend. This technical theory,
just like any theory, has its core postulates.

Technical analysts base their research on the following
three axioms:

Market movement considers everything
This is the most important postulate of technical analysis.
It is crucial to understand it in order to grasp rightly the
procedures of analysis. The gist of it is that any factor that
influences the price of securities, whether economic, political,
or psychological, has already been taken into account and
reflected in the price chart. In other words, every price change
is accompanied by a change in external factors.

The main inference of this premise is the necessity to follow
closely the price movements and analyze them. By means of
analyzing price charts and multiple other indicators, a technical
analyst comes to the point that the market itself shows to her/
him the trend it will most likely follow. This premise is in conflict
with fundamental analysis where the attention is primarily paid
to the study of factors, and later on, after the analysis of the
factors, to conclusions as to the market trends are made. Thus, if
the demand is higher than the supply, a fundamental analyst will
come to the conclusion that the price will grow. Technical analyst,
however, makes her/his conclusions in the opposite sequence:
since the price has grown, it means the demand is higher than the
supply.

The prices move with the trend
This assumption is the basis for all methods of technical
analysis, as a market that moves in accordance with trends
can be analyzed, unlike a chaotic market. The postulate that the
price movement is a result of a trend has two effects. The first
one implies that the current trend will most likely continue and
will not reverse itself, thus, excluding disorderly chaotic movement
of the market. The second one implies that the current trend
will go on until the opposite trend sets in.

The history repeats itself
Technical analysis and studies of market dynamics are closely
related to the studies of human psychology. Thus, the graphical
price models identified and classified within the last hundred
years depict core characteristics of the psychological state of
the market. First of all, they show the moods currently prevailing
in the market, whether bullish or bearish. Since these models
worked in the past, we have reasons to suppose that they will
work in the future, for they are based on human psychology
which remains almost unchaged over years. We can reword
the last postulate — the story repeats itself — in a slightly
different way: the key to understanding the future lies in
the studies of the past.

Happy learning.