Friday, June 30, 2006
FX Education & Training
FX Trade Central
This is my mother ship Forex Education and Training website. The focus on this site is to provide an approach or methodology for learning to trade currencies. I also provide a running Forex course evaluation for a comprehensive approach to learning opportunities. Click Here now to view this site!
FXT
This is my premiere training site. This is where I learned to trade currencies and am an active participant in the Online Trading Rooms where the real training takes place during active market hours. Click Here now to view this site!
Forex Journey – Blog
Frankly this is where I can talk about anything I want. I try to relay my personal experience is learning the Forex market, as well as tips and tricks along my journey. I will always be a student of currency trading. Don’t click here because you are already there!
Lens
If you missed my posting on what the heck is a Lens just search back in the May/June archives. I have two lenses which are designed to provide more of a focus on my trading (http://www.squidoo.com/forexjourney) and why Forex trading is the next great frontier (http://www.squidoo.com/successinfx). The Forex Journey Lens is the only site I post excerpts from my trading plan and current trade set ups I am evaluating.
Your risk management strategy resides between your ears. Don’t listen to any sales pitch claiming one system is easier than others. It really lies in a simple formula. Dedication and perseverance! It is not as easy as the sales people make out, but it is also not as hard as the naysayer claim either! You education is truly a lifetime financial skill! No matter where you get your forex education, just get it! It is your most important investment.
Keep the emails coming! Your feedback matters!
Happy Trading!!
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
The Impact of News Events, Part 2
Fundamentals tend to be very inconsistent. This is why most traders, including myself, focus on the technicals. Fundamentals focus on the structural issues of currencies, such as flows of money and tend to be cyclical. Certain fundamental data carry different weight for different currencies. You will hear terms such as balance of trade, capital flows, employment and industrial production.
What does it all mean?
I have no clue. I am not an economist and I will never ever pretend to be (even with my fascination of the Central Bank role in the currency markets). In the end price action matters! How the currency price reacts to the news is the key. For example, EUR/USD pair is trending down and unexpected economic number that is dollar negative is released. The pair is likely to spike up and over a period of time resumes its previous downward technical direction.
It is all about using technical analysis to assess the likely direction of price and supporting it all with fundamental data. It is entirely possible to have two technical indicators and use fundamental data as a 3rd confirmation.
So how do we incorporate this into our currency trading plan?
Know the news and its anticipated impact on the currency pair. In my previous blog posting I provided some links to the two sites I use to monitor economic releases. If you reviewed the site you would have picked up on the fact that some news events are given a greater weight than others. I trade the London-New York overlap session, so the 8:30 am releases (and Fed news) catches my attention, but I will also get up a little earlier if significant news out of the ECB or Bank of England is expected. I tend not to have any short term position on or if I do I may close attention to my stop-loss. I let the market set the trend and enter the market when the “whip-saw” action has settle down and the market sediment for the news and trend has been established.
Be patient and be discipline! Always understand the big picture!
Happy Trading!!
For more information on how I trade visit http://www.squidoo.com/forexjourney. Feel free to email this lens to your friends!!
Monday, June 26, 2006
The Impact of News Events, Part 1
The Forex market is driven largely by world financial market and news, both of the domestic and international variety. There are a host of players on the international FX stage including businesses, hedge funds, governments, banks, consumers and of course us traders!
By now I am sure you are wondering why a self-proclaimed technical trader is blogging about the news? After all isn’t this just more fundamental mumbo-jumbo?
Well you know what they say …
NEWS IS THE FUEL BUT THE TECHNICALS ARE IN CONTROL!!
Fundamental news has a tendency to adjust the technical when the news is unexpected. Before beginning my trading session I am sure to review the up coming economic releases to view any event that has potential to provide rocket fuel to the market. Some news will move the currency pair (Non-Farm Payroll) and some are may not. To get a list of those pre-planned economic releases that have the potential for moving the Forex market look into the following links.
http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/briefing/
http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php?page=calendar
Here are some recommended sites to get a more comprehensive fundamental view of the market.
Getting to know the impact of news events on your chosen currency will allow you to anticipate movements and plan your trades for more profitable entries.
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/digests.html
This site will give you much more the Forex, but you can search the archives for the FX related article. This site has been very informative for my long term planning.
In Part 2 we will discuss how to incorporate news events into your trading plan.
Happy Trading!!
Sunday, June 25, 2006
Find Your Forex Niche
OK, truth be told … I hated it!!
This style of trading just did not suit my personality. It was a necessary step, but as soon as I felt comfortable and confident in the 5-minute trading style I dialed my chart right out to the hourly charts and beyond. I know lots of people that like the fast pace, simplicity of this style and are some of the most successful traders I know.
I am just not one of them!
My personality fits a longer term view and I just did not thrive in the faster paced decision making required in the 1-minute and 5-minute styles. My focus is on swing trading on the 240-minute chart and intraday trading on the hour and 15 minute charts. It is important while you are learning to trade FX you maintain an open mind to all Forex strategies, but in the end your personal trading style must recognized and exploited for long term success!
Happy Trading!!
For more information visit my site at http://www.fxtradecentral.com or my lens at http://www.squidoo.com/forexjourney!!!
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Chart Patterns
For a review bookmark this link!!
http://www.stockcharts.com/education/index.html
Happy Trading!!
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
It is Better in Groups
Too often I hear about the lonely trader who sits at their computer while the Forex market forces devour their capital. These are the same people who say currency trading is too risky and it doesn't work.
So you have taken the classes and read the books. Most humans don't learn that way. We must also be shown how to do it. In our case we must be shown (and repeatedly) how to trade, when to trade and when not to trade. Repetition is the key to learning.
And so is trading in a group!
If you do not have a group of traders then form your own group. Just look on Skype to see the myriad of Forex traders out there. Ask questions in forums (know you source though). You interaction with other enhance your Forex trading skill and acumen.
This just may be what the doctor ordered to have that breakout that puts you well on your way to Forex success!!
Happy Trading!!
Click Here to visit a forex training and education site that offers cources and mentoring beyond the tex book and into the live currency market!!
Do not buy unknown Forex Trading Strategy!
So i decided to make my own investigation, and i must admit i had big issue with those trading strategies, they all show proofs of earning, have got "happy" customers statments even with their happy faces, but on the other hand i never heard that someone made money trading bought strategy. I actually couldn't find anyone who was or is using one of this strategies, so i asked asuthors.
Results where terryfinig it happens those who sell this strategies don't even know what they are talking about, for example what is "forex trading hours" some of sellers are not even aware of that they can trade forex 24 hours a day!!! Not to mention they do not even know what leverage, long or short position is.
There also happens sellers who know what forex is, proboably traded for some years but there are no proofs they made money, or that they strategies are succesfull.
Finally there are few gems i can recommend, i contacted their authors and belive buying this books will be a good investment.
If you have any experiences with any of this strategies please comment my post or write to me, it will be interesting for us all.
Monday, June 19, 2006
Foreign banks increase exposure in gilts & forex
According to Clearing Corporation of India Ltd (CCIL), the share of foreign banks in total g-secs' purchases was only 28% in May. In April, their share was still lower at 24%.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) permits foreign banks to classify government securities purchased under the reverse repo auction as part of the statutory liquidity requirements (SLR) exposure of the bank. However, given the 50 basis points rise in reverse repo rates in the last six months, purchase of securities through reverse repo auction has proved to be a costlier route. As a result, foreign banks prefer outright purchase of g-sec through the secondary market.
Further, given the prevailing high volatility in the domestic equity markets, many foreign banks have pared their exposure in equities and increased that in the government securities.
Financial Technologies (India) recommends 260% dividend
The decision was taken by the board of directors of the company at its meeting held on June 17, 2006.
Financial Technologies (India) (FTIL), headquartered in India and listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange, is India`s leading vertical specialist enterprise delivering mission-critical, straight through processing solutions comprising domain expertise, technology licensing and development & transaction outsourcing services.
Read more here.
Japanese Forex Trading Preview
Read more here.
FX Trading.com offers 2 wide spreads to RefcoFX Forex clients
Refco Group experienced a massive devaluation earlier this year as a result of its CEO, Phillip R. Bennet, being accused of a scheme to falsely inflate the company’s stock price through improper accounting practices. Refco FX was initially unaffected by the scandal, but has recently announced its inability to proceed.
Read more here.
Thursday, June 15, 2006
CSI Forex
Chased the trade and ended up losing more?
Revenge traded against the trend to recoup your losses and ended up losing more?
Moved your predetermined stop and ended up losing more?
Flipped your position and ended up losing more?
Have you noticed a theme??
Well, when I have a series of losing trades I go into CSI mode!
I actually conduct a crime scene investigation on my trading. First if I suffer a big lost I close my trade station immediately. Experience has taught me that I am susceptible to revenge trading. After a break (could be several minutes or several hours or several days) I take a look at my trade journal and look for clues as to why I suffered a draw down. Keeping a detailed journal allows me to reconstruct my trades to isolate potential errors.
If I am lucky I found that I had sound analysis and execution, but just hit some losers. More likely is that I got away from my style of trading or over-complicated my technique and entered into a bad trade.
Go back to the basics! It works every time!!
Happy Trading!!
FOREX-Dollar hits 6-week high on core US inflation data
NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) - The dollar on Tuesday hit six-week highs against the euro and the yen after a higher-than-expected reading of core U.S. inflation heightened expectations for more Federal Reserve interest rate increases.
Interest rate futures markets pushed up the chances of a quarter percentage point rate increase in the federal funds rate at the end of June, and some analysts are now suggesting the Fed may not stop there.
"Topping out in the fed funds rate is not quite clear and no one is concluding that it is one more move and we're done," Alex Beuzelin, foreign exchange market analyst with Ruesch International in Washington, said. "That's supporting the dollar."
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With advice, jargon busting and basic foreign exchange strategies, ForexFusion.com is a one-stop shop for any aspiring trader. In an industry that never
stays still, ForexFusion.com will keep visitors up-to date on all the latest advances, as well as providing all the information a person could ever require to become a successful trader on the worlds largest exchange.
Read more here.
Forex Fundamentals
After yesterday’s sharp movements in the
commodity and stock markets, today’s theme has been retracements. Oil and gold
prices are both slightly higher, along with the Dow. In the FX markets, the buck
has sold off even though today’s US data is more dollar positive than negative,
purely because buyers are starting to become scarce ahead of critical resistance
levels. Inflation is the Fed’s primary focus, which made today’s report on
consumer prices even more important. Headline prices rose 0.4 percent while core
prices rose 0.3 percent, which was slightly stronger than expected. Although it may
seem like only a mild up tick from the 0.2 percent forecast, the three month
annualized rate of core inflation, the number that Bernanke is keeping an eye on,
hit 3.8 percent, the highest level in over a decade. This strong pace of growth has
sent rate hike expectations to 100 percent, with the market already beginning to
price in a tiny chance for another hike in August. However, a closer look at the
report shows that a large part of the rise was due to the higher cost of owners
equivalent rent. The pickup in mortgage rates has made renting a far more
attractive option than owning. Bond yields has risen as traders price in higher
rates, but at the same time the yield curve has inverted further, indicating that
the market believes the higher interest rates will have a big impact on growth.
Even though the rise in owners equivalent rent is an immediate inflationary concern,
it is also a longer term headache. The higher mortgage rates rise, the more risks
it poses for the housing market. The Fed’s Beige Book is already showing signs of
this impact as many of the districts report slower growth and higher inflation. Yet
the Fed has chosen to focus exclusively on the inflation component at the risk of
growth. This is a dangerous game to play, but with such solidarity behind their
decision to unanimously tell the markets that another quarter point rise will be
coming in June, it is a message that we cannot ignore. Therefore until the next
meeting, even if we do see the dollar give back more of its gains, it will probably
not come close to 1.30 in the EUR/USD as the fear of how far the Fed will go keeps
dollar bears cautious of taking on new positioning. Meanwhile tomorrow we are
expecting the TIC data, also known as the report on net foreign purchases of US
securities. Talk of reserve diversification over the past few months could bring
about a weak number, which would extend the dollar’s losses.
Read more here.
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
Time for a Breakthrough
Want a hint?
Just look in the mirror!!
The key to success in trading the Forex market is to just plain get out of our own way!! Here are the common mistakes that leads most traders to failure or better yet, hold the true successful trader in all of us back from achieving our true potential. See if any of these areas you can improve upon.
Lack of Forex Education - training is the true key to success. That is why I have dedicated my website, FX Trade Central, this blog and my Lens to this enitre topic. The money spent on proper currency education will be recoup and paid back 1000X!! Click Here for a list of Forex training and education courses on FXTC or Click Here for Forex training opportunity Lens.
Emotions - great if you are watching the NBA Playoffs or World Cup, but it has no home in trading. Again, this is another topic I am passionate about and quite honestly one I struggle with each and every trading day.
Not sticking to a trading plan - or not having a plan at all!! This goes a long way in predetermining your trading decsions and help removing the emotions from your trades.
Expectations - Having realistic expectations at all times. My "Ah-Ha" moment was when I focused on the pips and let my trading plan worry about the lots. Compounding works!
Risk Management - I still hear from people time to time who continue to trade without a stop loss. One word ... STOP!! Just for the fact that you are risking your account on your ISP my account started growing when I managed my risk, took trades that fit my reward-risk profile, and used my stop-loss as a mechanism of last resort to exit a losing position and not a first option.
Bottom line, focus on these areas as much as the mechanics of the trade and you will get over the hump and start benefiting from the most powerful financial market in the world!!
Happy Trading!!
Forex Fundamentals
S Dollar. The foreign exchange market has been extremely quiet today with most currency pairs aside from the Canadian dollar calmly consolidating....
The next few days will be very
busy as traders prepare themselves for a long list of key economic data scheduled
for release from all of the major countries around the world as well as a number of
Fed speeches. Bernanke’s credibility has really come to question over the past few
days and will be tested even more so this week. Financial editors of the press have
had a blast touting his keen ability to confuse the markets which comes in clear
contrast to the transparency, clarity and simplicity that he initially promised when
he became Federal Reserve Chairman. He is slated to speak this evening and then
once again in the morning and in all likelihood, he will stick to the script on Bank
Supervision because he knows that if he fails to affirm his newly hawkish stance,
all credibility would probably be lost. Given earlier signs of slower growth, this
week’s data, starting with tomorrow’s retail sales report could potentially surprise
to the downside. If retail sales do come out extremely weak, the market will wonder
whether Bernanke is playing with fire, risking a global slowdown to combat
inflation. Of the other Fed officials that spoke today, they either refrained from
mentioning monetary policy or simply repeated their concerns with inflation.
Whether inflation is really prevalent will also be proved this week as we first see
the producer price index tomorrow morning and then the consumer price index on
Wednesday. These will be watched even more closely than they usually are because if
neither confirms the strong inflation concerns of the Fed, Bernanke’s credibility
will be in question once again, which would be negative for the US dollar. The only
piece of economic data that was released today was the US’ monthly budget statement,
which reported a larger deficit of -$42.8 billion compared to a -$35.4 billion
forecast. Structural problems have been plaguing the US economy for years and based
upon the latest figures, it is far from being resolved. Meanwhile the hurricane
season begins with warnings that the season’s first Tropical Storm Alberto could be
named a hurricane. With oil prices still hovering above $70 a barrel, if any
hurricanes this summer hit the US oil and gas heartland along the Gulf Coast, we
could easily see another record high in crude, which could pose another risk to the
sustainability of consumer spending. If the US consumer goes, so does the US
dollar. However as long as the US consumer holds on, the Fed will be able to as
well, which would validate and exacerbate the greenback’s recent climb * so keep an
eye on weather patterns as well as retail sales.
Read more here.
Online Education Helps FOREX Currency Trade
Staff of FOREXBusinessSchool.com, determined that, especially due to the "investor beware" climate of the FOREX markets, there is a need for an independent source to provide currency trader training.
The FOREXBusinessSchool.com program is being developed by college educators who are experienced investment and finance professionals. This educator advantage does not exist with currency trader training programs that are affiliated with dealers and brokerage houses.
"We will undoubtedly make FOREXBusinessSchool.com the very best online training source for people interested in, or involved with, online currency trading" said Leonard Cox, program developer for the online FOREX school.
Many educators and investment experts are previewing drafts of the FOREXBusinessSchool.com curriculum. The preliminary ratings of FOREX Business School are excellent. You can subscribe to the mailing list on the FOREXBusinessSchool.com contact page to receive updates.
Read more here.
New Online Business Opportunity Helps Entrepreneurs Succeed Where They Once Failed
Now there is an opportunity that lives up to its promises. Backed by 12 years of experience, the Prosperity Automated System (PAS) is a new type of network marketing that is allowing entrepreneurs to succeed where they once failed.
"The complete automation of PAS, from the presentation of the opportunity to the professional follow through by the team leader staff among other things, truly remove many of the variables potentially responsible for past failure rates” says Amber Barth, a PAS business owner. “With a bit of effort, I believe anyone, regardless of their background can have success with this business."
As its name suggests, the Prosperity Automated System is an automated system for earning money online. With PAS, business owners focus on getting prospects to visit their website and from there a trained PAS representative does the follow up and closes the sale. Unlike other network marketing businesses, members do not have to spend time cold calling, answering customer questions or following up with prospects.
Read more here.
Gold, oil extend drop, dollar up on rate talk
Gold, metals and oil extended losses on June 14 as investors dumped higher-risk assets, Japanese stocks regained lost ground and the US dollar set a seven-week high on persistent talk of higher US interest rates.
Japan's Nikkei stock average (N225) dropped almost 1% at the start but clawed back the losses and registered a 1.05% gain, thanks to advances by retailers such as Aeon Co which are dependent on the domestic economy.
The insipid recovery in Tokyo was reflected in other Asian stock markets with South Korea's benchmark KOSPI rising 0.9% and Taiwan's key index adding 0.85%.
Tokyo shares had their biggest one-day percentage fall in two years on June 13. The losses in Asia spilled over into Wall Street where the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 0.8% to 10,706.14 yesterday. After more than a month of steady declines, it has now lost all of its gains for the year.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell for the eighth straight day, dropping 0.9% to 2,072.47.
Investors have dumped riskier assets and moved their money to dollars since May on worries that the US Federal Reserve would be forced to raise rates for the 17th straight time at a meeting on June 28-29 to stymie inflation despite signs that the world's biggest economy and Asia's biggest export market was slowing.
The rate expectations helped push the dollar to a seven-week high against the euro and yen in New York and kept them near those levels in early Asian trading on June 14.
Spot gold plunged to US$561 (RM2,070) an ounce to notch up a 22% drop in the past month. June 13's drop in gold prices was its sharpest decline in 15 years.
"The market continues to see movements linked to risk aversion," said Kota Kimura, forex manager at Shinkin Central Bank. "Unless some fresh and strong incentives come out, money is likely to keep flowing back to dollar assets."
Seven Big Things Professors Won�t Teach You (But You Should Know)
Have no fear, though! This report will help fill in the gaps. While it�s impossible to cover everything you could possibly want to learn in this brief space, here you will be given seven specific areas of focus. It is my intent to provide you with something of a guide to help you go beyond your text books and take your financial education to another level. From there you�ll be able truly accelerate your growth at a rapid pace, allowing you the opportunity to have more success.
Read more here.
Sunday, June 11, 2006
Greed Can Force The Remote Forex Trader Into An Early Retirement
In the markets, greed is often a good thing. It is what drives companies to perform well, and what drives much of the markets movement. It’s the effort that the remote forex trader will expend trying to make a profit that creates the market movement that enables you, as a remote forex trader, to succeed.
The desire to make money is what motivates a remote forex trader to become successful. But the desire to succeed is different from the desire to get every bit of possible profit from a trade. This kind of reckless greed makes a remote forex trader hold on to their position long after the downside has started to outweigh the upside, until risk outweighs potential reward.
Here's an example: a remote forex trader sees that a particular stock is starting on a run; it's reported good news and is already up 20% for the day. The volume is still building; it's stable at the current price; the market is rallying strongly; and it looks like it will go higher. The remote forex trader buys 1,000 shares at $6 a share. By 12:15 P.M., the stock has raced up to $10 - a gain of over 66% for the day, and a profit of $4,000 on 1,000 shares.
This remote forex trader knows that round number price points, like $10, are psychological barriers for the remote forex trader and that if a stock is going to stop rising, it will probably be near a point like this. As it turns out, after momentarily shooting to $10.03, the price stops rising and starts to go down.
Read more here.
Surge in aluminium prices helps lift trade figures
Read more here.
Central bank to unite forex trading systems
An integrated system would be the lastest in a series of reforms to increase market efficiency and monitoring, the newspaper said.
The new system was launched a year ago and allows domestic trading in eight foreign currency pairs. It is a step toward a market-based environment by allowing domestic banks to trade foreign currencies, but is separate from yuan trading.
Morgan Stanley, Calyon Diverge on Dollar-Euro Amid Volatility
Forecasters Stephen Jen and Mitul Kotecha agree that traders may have to get used to abrupt currency swings of the kind they saw last week, when the dollar had its biggest surge against the euro in nine months. They disagree on where the U.S. currency will end the year.
Morgan Stanley's Jen says the dollar will strengthen to $1.24 to the euro by Dec. 31 from $1.2645 now. Along the way, it will bounce wildly, falling below $1.30 before rising, he said. Kotecha, at Calyon, a unit of Credit Agricole SA, sees the dollar slumping to $1.35 per euro by year's end.
``We will be in a much more volatile environment in the second half,'' said 35-year-old Kotecha, Calyon's London-based head of global foreign-exchange strategy. ``The dollar won't fall in a straight line.''
The divergent forecasts show the difficulty of predicting currency moves at a time when Federal Reserve policy-makers have been changing their tone on the pace of interest rate increases. Thirty-two economists surveyed by Bloomberg on average predict the dollar will weaken by year's end to $1.30 per euro -- a level almost reached at the beginning of last week, when it touched $1.2980.
The U.S. currency then gained 2.1 percent against the euro, its biggest advance since August, to finish at $1.2650 as Fed officials makers signaled that they would keep raising rates to keep inflation in check. The central bankers' comments also helped trigger the biggest weekly slump in global stock markets in more than 3 1/2 years.
Fake currency seized, one held
Read more here.
Currency Strategists: Deutsche Bank Says to Buy Yen on BOJ Move
June 12 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will rise to its strongest since January 2005 in the next six months on prospects the Bank of Japan will boost borrowing costs at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
The yen has gained 3.3 percent against the dollar this year on speculation the BOJ will lift its benchmark rate from near zero percent, while speculation is building the Fed is close to the end of its cycle of rate increases. Japan's central bank cut overnight rates to zero in 2001 to combat deflation.
``The Fed is going to be on hold while the BOJ will continue to hike throughout the year,'' said Jens Nystedt, a currency strategist in New York at Deutsche, in a phone interview on June 9. ``The interest-rate differential going forward is going to favor the yen. I certainly want to be long,'' or buying the yen, he said.
From 113.97 per dollar at 5:27 p.m. in New York on June 9, the yen will rally to 102 per dollar by year-end, Nystedt predicts. It would be the strongest since 101.68 yen on Jan. 17, 2005. The yen reached an eight-month high of 109 yen on May 17.
Frankfurt-based Deutsche is the largest currency trader, according to an annual survey by Euromoney magazine.
Nystedt predicted the BOJ will boost its benchmark rate starting in July by a total of 0.75 percentage point by year-end. The Fed will lift its target a 17th straight time by a quarter- percentage point to 5.25 percent at its June 28-29 meeting and then pause, he said. The U.S. benchmark rate will only exceed Japan's by 4.5 percent by year-end, he said.
Money, Banking and the Federal Reserve
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-466210540567002553&q=mises
Happy Trading!!
For Forex training and education visit my Forex Journey Lens
Dollar May Gain on Inflation Reports, Forecast for Fed Rates
June 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may gain against the euro on speculation U.S. government reports will signal inflation is accelerating and prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for a 17th consecutive time.
Sixty-two percent of the 53 traders, strategists and investors surveyed by Bloomberg on June 9 from Sydney to New York advised buying the dollar against the euro. Forty percent recommended purchasing the U.S. currency against the yen.
``The market's very nervous about inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates, and that's favoring the dollar,'' said Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange in London at Mellon Financial Corp., which holds $4.13 trillion in assets. ``We're likely to see more strength for the currency.''
Producer prices probably rose 4.3 percent in May compared with a year earlier, the biggest increase since January, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey. Consumer prices likely increased 3.9 percent in May from a year earlier, after a 3.5 percent gain in April. The reports are scheduled for release June 13 and 14.
The U.S. currency rose the past five days, its longest rally since January, as traders boosted bets the Fed will lift its target rate by a quarter-percentage point on June 29 to 5.25 percent. Odds of an increase surged to 84 percent last week from below 50 percent a week earlier, trading in interest-rate futures show, after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and central bankers emphasized their concerns about inflation.
DGCX launches currency futures trading
This is the third product to be launched on the DGCX after Gold, (November 2005 at launch) and Silver (March 2006).
From today, DGCX brokers will be able to trade Euro/US Dollar, Yen/US Dollar and Sterling /US Dollar contracts with other contracts coming on line over time. Each of these currencies will have four forward months contracts maturing in March, June, September and December. The contract size for Euro/USD and Sterling/USD will be 50,000 while the contract size for Yen/USD will be 5,000,000.
DGCX continues to develop apace with the existing contracts achieving phenomenal growth. In the most recent market update, DGCX confirmed that Gold futures volumes grew by 54% from April to May, reaching a staggering 62,139 Kilos. These figures include a highest ever daily traded volume of 6062 contracts on 15th May.
With commodity markets in the middle of a major bull run, the introduction of a diverse range of commodities on DGCX, offers an ideal platform for market participants to trade all the products on a single exchange platform. The Exchange plans to introduce futures contracts on steel and marine fuel oil in the fourth quarter of 2006.
Read more here.
Saturday, June 10, 2006
Euro FX Trade
We just exited our June Euro put spread for a little more than a 200% return in 11 trading days. As I mentioned in the June spread I remain a longer term bull of this market. Today's breakdown is nothing more than a shakeout of the longs one day before June's option expiration, coincidence?...I think not.
We may break down a bit more in the coming days but by then end of this month I expect to see this market back towards 1.30. Mr. Bernanke may have spooked the markets but it is nothing more than the typical over reaction that we are seeing in the Dollar.
The ECB did surprise us by only raising rate by .25 point rather than the .50 point that was expected. While this story was spun as bearish, I believe that as a whole the European's financial house is in better order than here in the US and we should see that reflected in the currency exchange rates as this becomes more evident.
Friday, June 9, 2006
U.S. Dollar Mixed Against Other Currencies
The British pound was lower at $1.8413 in late New York trading, while the dollar fell to 113.92 Japanese yen from 114.21; 1.2312 Swiss francs from 1.2323; and 1.1063 Canadian dollars from 1.1224.
The European Central Bank boosted its key lending rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.75 percent at a meeting Thursday in Madrid, Spain, but some had speculated it would raise rates even higher.
Read more here.
Weekly Outlook: Aussie Cools Its Heels At A Bad Time
Traders will have to wait until Monday night for the first release as Manpower Inc announces its third quarter employment outlook. With the labor market showing strong improvement, the outlook should be positive, however this may be slightly dampened by evidence that a cooling economy may be hurting companies’ intentions to hire more workers. Tuesday, National Australia Bank releases its May business survey. Recent surveys have shown that, despite higher fuel, wage, and borrowing costs, businesses do have a positive outlook for their futures and have confidence in the economy.
The next day lists the Westpac consumer confidence survey for June. Confidence fell 6 percent during May after the Reserve Bank raised rates 25 basis points, but should have recovered slightly as consumers become accustomed to the higher rate. Thursday has the RBA bulletin for May to provide figures on the foreign exchange activity of the bank for April. Also released will be consumer inflation expectations for June. May’s expectations revealed that the majority felt prices would rise considerably. Expectations for June may be slightly less severe after last month’s rate hike but the price of energies will be in the back of Australians’ heads.
Read more here.
Oil, imports help push up trade deficit
The Commerce Department reported Friday that the gap between what the United States sells abroad and what it imports rose to $63.4 billion in April, 2.5 percent higher than the March imbalance of $61.9 billion.
The trade deficit fell in February and March, after hitting a record high of $66.2 billion in January. While economists noted that the April deficit was smaller than the $65 billion that had been expected, it was still the sixth-largest imbalance on record.
U.S. Trade Deficit Up to $63.4B in April
The Commerce Department reported Friday that the gap between what the United States sells abroad and what it imports rose to $63.4 billion in April, 2.5 percent higher than the March imbalance of $61.9 billion.
The trade deficit fell in both February and March after hitting an all-time high of $66.2 billion in January.
While economists noted that the April deficit was smaller than the $65 billion that had been expected, it was still the sixth largest imbalance on record. They said deficits in comings months were likely to be worse given the jump in global crude oil prices.
On Wall Street, stocks finished their worst week of the year as investors remained nervous over worries about inflation and interest rates. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 46.90 points Friday to close at 10,891.92, ending the week with a loss of more than 355 points.
Investors' worries about inflation increased after the Labor Department reported that prices for imported goods jumped 1.6 percent in May. Excluding the big rise in petroleum products, import prices were still up 0.6 percent last month.
Read more here.
Philosophical FX Mistakes
Don’t Analyze the News for Future Price Action!
Fundamentals matter, but as a technical trader we are aware of economic news as they tend to act as catalyst. News events offer opportunities, but price action is what matters most! How often have you seen news spur price to technical support and resistance levels? I will leave that to the economist!
Don’t Trade the News!
Again, we should always be aware of news releases during our trading session. I don’t trade the news, but I then again I am not a fundamental currency trader either. I do know some super successful fundamental currency traders. It is just not my game. I like to wait for the dust to settle a trend to emerge before jumping into the fray. If, and that is a strong if, I have any open positions going into any major announcements I am really focused on where my stops are located to protect my position if I am deep into profit. More often than not I exit open trades if minimally in profit or in a losing position. News is the fuel, but technicals are in control.
Keep it Simple!
When I began trading I wanted to learn every forex strategy on earth. I found that the simpler strategies afforded me more consistency! And that is what I was after all along. After being able to consistently drive profits out of my trading activities I turned my focus to maximizing entry and exit points, yet deploying simple strategies all along.
Remember, these are my "Enlightened" thoughts. You should develop your own strategies and plan.
Happy Trading!!
Investors nervous about rates
The Dow Jones industrial average (down 15.05 to 10,915.85) and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index (down 0.75 to 1,255.40) both hovered around the breakeven about a half hour into the session.
The Nasdaq composite (down 6.27 to 2,145.53) lost 0.5 percent.
The European Central Bank hiked its key interest rate a quarter percentage point at its meeting in Madrid Thursday, in line with forecasts of economists, sparking concerns about rising global interest rates.
Asian markets ended lower, with Japan's benchmark Nikkei index tumbling 3 percent, and European shares were lower in early afternoon trading.
Oil prices sank for the third straight session Thursday on news of the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq.
DGCX to start currency trading from June 12
The Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) will start currency futures trading in three currency contracts from June 12, said Framroze Pochara, Chief Executive Officer of DGCX yesterday.
With the launch of currency futures, DGCX has entered select league of global derivative exchanges that offer currency derivatives. DGCX already has gold and silver futures and expects to add fuel oil and steel futures in the near future.
Speaking to Khaleej Times yesterday, Pochara said there is a huge spot market for leading international currencies in the UAE. While the futures market will serve as an ideal hedging platform for banks, money exchange houses and trading houses it will also offer investment opportunities for currency investors.
Initially DGCX will trade futures contracts in 3 currencies — Euro-Dollar, Yen-Dollar and Sterling-Dollar with contracts maturing in March, June, September and December each year. These will be deliverable contracts. This will establish DGCX as the first exchange for trading currencies in the Middle East.
The global spot market for currencies exceeds $2 trillion daily turnover while the derivative transactions are several fold larger than the spot market. DGCX expects participation from all leading local, regional and international banks in the currency futures trading. “Currently we have more than 100 broker members on DGCX and all of them are eligible to participate in currency trading from day one. The initial response has been very encouraging and we expect good response from all market participants,” said Arshad Khan, Director of DGCX.
DGCX will follow T+1 trading system in currency trading with National Bank of Dubai and HSBC acting as delivery banks for settlement of DGCX currencies futures contracts.
Thursday, June 8, 2006
CBR has no intention to change structure of forex reserves-Ignatiev
“That component is diversified well enough,” CBR President Sergei Ignatiev told the international banking congress in St. Petersburg on Thursday.
The dollar component constitutes half of the foreign exchange reserves and the euro component, 40 percent. The other currencies are the British pound and the Japanese yen, the latter accounting for less than one percent of the reserves.
SAFE lifts forex quotas
China will scrap quota restrictions on how much foreign exchange domestic companies can buy to finance their overseas investments, the latest move in a string of measures to relax the country's forex controls.
Under the new rules, which will take effect on July 1, domestic companies will be allowed to use their own foreign exchange holdings, buy foreign currency from regulators or borrow from both overseas or domestic lenders to invest abroad, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said in a statement posted on its website yesterday.
Overseas investments refer to companies setting up subsidiaries, mergers and acquisitions, the foreign exchange regulator said.
"The policy revisions will help companies' 'go abroad' strategies and meet their increasing demand for conducting overseas investments," it said in the statement.
"The move is not surprising and is in line with the country's changing forex management policy," said Li Yongsen, an economist with the Renmin University of China, referring to the country's new policy of encouraging households and businesses to hold more foreign exchange.
Read more here.Companies may use their own holdings, buy foreign exchange from regulators or borrow from overseas or domestic lenders to invest abroad starting July 1, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement on its Web site on Thursday. The regulator’s move won’t change approval requirements set by other government bodies.
China is gradually loosening controls on the yuan after ending a decade-old peg to the dollar in July. Surging exports helped drive the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves up 33% to a record $875.1 billion in the year to the end of March.
Forex - US dollar little changed vs yen in Tokyo after correcting from NY levels
'The dollar had risen 3.30 yen over the past four trading days and it was too fast,' prompting a mild technical correction from levels in New York, said Kikuko Takeda, a currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
However with Federal Reserve officials expressing unhappiness over inflation levels, expectations for further Fed rate hikes have moved up considerably this week, and this could provide further support for the dollar in the near term.
Read more here.
Joys of Compounding
Here is a simple tip. Trade in at least 2 forex accounts. I have a compounding account where I have a dialy pip goal of only 15. I also have what I call my true currency trading account. Here are the differences.
Compounding Account
15 pip daily goal
Intraday trading only
5% maximum risk
When daily pip goal is reached I close all trades and trade station
I rarely withdraw from this account and only for investments into other wealth buidling vehicles (eg real estate)
Trading Account
PIP goals established by reward -risk ratio (minimum 2:1)
Focus on swing and position trades
2% - 5% maximum risk
Use exit strategies predifined in my trading plan
Withdrawals allowed (I use this as an incentive)
My true joy is the compounding account. For those of you who want to witness the true power of trading forex then this is what a compounding account can do for you!!
January 1st - Open a Super-Mini Account with $300.00. Average 15 pip daily goal throughout the year (5% risk). December 31- Account balance ~ $168,000.00
This same scenario with a Mini Account with a starting balance of $3,000.00 would yield a year end balance of ~ $1,680,000.00!! Lots of zeros people! Just want to save for retirement? Average 15 pips PER WEEK and you will have the same amount in 5 years.
How's your 401(k) looking now!
Happy Trading!!
Vistit me at my Forex Lens to jump start your forex education and training!!
Wednesday, June 7, 2006
Embrace Your Flaws
I have returned! Sometimes you need a vacation from your vacation, if you know what I mean! While I was enjoying beautiful Southern Califoria I had time to reflect on my trading. I had some good points and some ... well, let's just say some not so good points. Instead of getting down about what I felt were flaws in my trading game I thought I would list them out and embrace them.
I had no problem listing my top five areas of trading psychology that required attention. I did this in order to identify strategies to counter these feelings and allow me better overall trade execution. That's what it's all about after all.
Before I continue, remember that I am a flawed individual, so be kind! I also recognize that these flaws serve me well in life and in trading I simply need to understand that they are present and devise methods for incorporating them into my trading plan so they have a positive effect.
Here they are!!
1. Afraid of Failure
This is presetn in almost every traders life.
Counter - read trading plan and mission statement before every trading session.
2. Lack of Discipline
I still find myself occasionally chasing trades.
Counter - I maintain a detailed trading journal that reminds me of how effective I am when deciplined.
3. Impulsive
My arch enemy!
Counter - I find I am more impulsive when tired. If I do not have enough rest I do not trade.
4. Competetive
The old athlete in me. In the past I have joined the herd.
Counter - I trade live in a focus environment with CNBC off and ensure that I make all decisions based on my trading plan and what the market is willing to allow me to take.
5. Greed
It cannot be a true list without fear AND greed.
Counter - Ironically, I employ discipline to maintain a rigid pip goal in my compounding account. Another trait that usually raises it's ugly head when I did not get enough rest.
Kowing what these negative trading traits are and when they are triggered will allow you too to manage your mind-set and turn these into positive currency trades!
Happy Trading!!