Polish Currency

If you are considering, long term investment, like one or two months than Polish currency might be interesting for you. For the last year it got stronger and stronger. Just checkout the charts below, this are EUR/PLN and USD/PLN, timeframe 1 year, on both charts you can see what i would call quality trend. Line is at 45 degrees, almost no corrections.

EUR/PLN

Let's start with EUR/PLN, i won't even talk about technical analysis, indicators and so on, you can see what is happening here. Just draw the line wait for minor correction and get into trade. You maybe wondering.

Ok it went down for a year, won't it turn back? This is a good question, i think this trend can end up pretty soon maybe 3 or 4 months, hard to say really. The problem here is that Polish bussiness has a problem with strong PLN against EUR, because a lot of companies export their products to west Europe. With strong Polish currency, their products are actually more expensive and thus less competetive.

The bottom line is, Polish bussinessmen want this trend to stop, and i believe that government will do what they ask for, the question is when?


USD/PLN

Now look at USD/PLN chart it looks almost the same as EUR/PLN, so again i won't go into details how to trade it.
Now to answer the same question as earlier, is this trend here to stay? I think it is, because gas price in Poland pretty much depends on gas price in USA. When gas price in USA gets more expensive it also gets more expensive in Poland (and rest of the world btw).

However, if gas price will go up, but at the same time Polish currency would get stronger against dollar, then it won't affect Poland as much as it would without USD/PLN going down.

Now if i got you interested in this form of investment, you will need a broker, which allows to trade Polish currency or at least EUR/PLN and USD/PLN. As far as i am concerned there are not much brokers who allow this. The ones who do are Oanda and maybe SaxoBank however i am not sure of that.

That is not end of the problems, even if you will find broker who allows to trade this pairs, probably spread on them will be somewhere between 20 and 40 pips, so like i said it is only good to trade them if you are looking for long term investment not scalping or even swing trading.

12 Major currency pairs

Well to be honest there is no such thing as 12 major currency pairs, there are actually about 7 (depends on how you count) major currencies, and well ... many major currency pairs.

So what's with your title, you maybe wondering? Let me justify myself, like i said there is no such thing as 12 major currency pairs, this is my list of currency pairs i like to trade, all my currency pairs are made from major currencies thus the name "12 Major currency pairs", however i do not advice you to use this name in group of professional forex traders, in best case they will get confused ... i do not want to tell what can happen in the worst case here :).

I will give you the list shortly but let me first explain why i choosed this currency pairs. There are few reasons, there are quite big moves on them in short periods of time, small spread, and i find it easy to apply technical analysis to those currency pairs.

Ok here it is:

• EUR/USD - well obvius, there is not a single trader who does not trade this currency pair
• GBP/USD - pretty similar pair to EUR/USD however it is quicker, and the moves are about 50% bigger, 150 PIPs daily is not uncommon for this pair.
• USD/JPY - quite predictible lately, notice that most of the time USD/JPY is bullish it moves slowly up, when there is a correction on this pair, it moves few hundreds pips down in just few days.
• EUR/JPY - pretty much the same as USD/JPY but moves are less predictible
• AUD/USD - good alternative where you have no idea where EUR/USD will go, however moves on this pair are smaller then on EUR/USD
• USD/CAD - pretty predictible, mainly because CAD is highly correlated with oil price, and you know what oil price chart looks like right?
• USD/CHF - very strong correlation between this pair and EUR/USD
• EUR/CHF - the same as USD/JPY slowly moves up and then quickly falls down
• EUR/CAD - high spread, well i do not know i just like to trade, i always find it easy to predict where will it move and how much
• EUR/GBP - very slow currency pair, however sometimes spread can be low on it
• EUR/AUD - this is very personal pick, i like to trade, but spread is very high so i only use it for long term trades
• NZD/USD - yes NZD is not really a major currency, but i like to trade this pair because it has low spread, easy to predict and has weak correlation to any other pair on this list

Well that is all, if you have your own private currency pairs list feel free to share it here in comments section, also i will be happy to answer any of your questions.

Day Trading Forex Currency

Right, day trading today. People are very interested in the concept of day trading. And i think there are at least few reasons for this. Before i will go into details, let's define day trading, what it really is.

On Forex day traders are guys who make a lot of trades (like over 10) in a single. Each of the trade is closed by the end of trader trading session, on Forex it usually means turning your computer off. Note that this is not the same as scalping. The only similarity between scalping and day trading is that, a lot of traders fail there.

Main resaon for this is that traders are tempted with huge profits, when doing day trading people are almost always using huge lavereages, like 100:1, it means buying 10 Lots with 10 000$. I think you can easily see how much one PIP is worth then, yeah it is 100$. It seems great at first, looks like a quick cash, but consider the fact that you only need 100 PIP move in the wrong direction to meet mr. Margin Call.

In reality when you trade on such high leverage it looks like everything is happening with a speed of light, while in fact it all happens with a normal speed, it is this ridiculous leverage that makes things harder.

Next thing you need to consider when you want to do day trading on forex currencies, is that not every broker will be happy with what you are doing, they may close your account or limi your leverage if ... you will start making money. So chose your broker wiseley checkout Forex forums and read brokers reviews make sure they allow day trading.

You may now think, wow day trading is hard. Well in fact it really is harder then you think. I am not saying it cannot be done, i am not saying you cannot earn like 200% a month. I am just saying that success with day trading want happen overnight, if you focus on it and commit to becoming day trading the success will come with time and experience.

Do you have what it takes to become a successful Forex Trader?

Forex trading, or any trading for that matter, is an occupation that requires experience and the accumulation of proficiency not unlike any other highly skilled profession. Whether you are a leading executive at a major publically traded company, a professional golfer or trading from your kitchen table, there are 5 key ingredients that one must possess in order to become successful.

1. You must be Passionate about what you do.

As Forex traders we all face one unique set of circumstances that does not exist in any other profession. We get rewarded for when we succeed and equally punished when we don’t! Could you image a corporate worker one quarter receiving a significant accomplishment bonus and the next quarter actually getting money taken from their paycheck for missing performance targets? Not on your life!

We do as Forex traders and that is why passion for what you do will carry you through the tough times that are part of your trading business. Asked yourself why you trade currencies and would you still do it if Forex were not potentially lucrative? Your answers will be quite revealing. You’ve got to feel your passion for trading!

2. You have to Apply Yourself and work hard at it.

I talk to so many people that enter into Forex trading with the aspiration of getting rich quick. Without putting the time and energy into really getting good at trading I see them jump from strategy to strategy looking for the goose that will lay the golden egg and eventually quitting while blaming everything else, except the true cause.

I got news for you – you are the goose and your Forex education is the golden egg. The magic has always resided with the magician and not some strategy. Work hard at trading and the rewards will eventually come your way. Remember what Tiger Woods said, “Funny, the harder I work the luckier I get.” Apply yourself as a trader and it will be no accident when your account begins to blossom.

3. You must Focus to really get good at what you do.

Now here is the hurdle most Forex traders struggle to get over. You have the passion and you are applying yourself to your trade, now focus and really get good at just at what you are doing. Be the expert to the experts at just that one thing. Become the master of a strategy or risk management methodologies. Really focus on getting good at it.

Stop jumping around or getting pulled from the last “latest and greatest” into the next “latest and greatest” and focus on one aspect of Forex trading and know it inside out. Know it strengths and weakness. Set your sights on becoming expert on just one aspect of trading and watch it spill over in all other aspects for your currency trading. This is the time to fail forward fast, use every setback as a learning opportunity that will propel you 3-steps ahead!

4. You must Push Yourself beyond the point everyone else might have quite.

In Forex Trading this is simple. Assume there is someone on the other side of your trade that is pushing themselves and sharpening their edge. To be successful you must you must do the same thing. Now is the time to examine your mental edge. Do you know the single most critical factor in any currency trade? It is you, the trader! Sharpening you mental edge is the most difficult aspect of trading, but also the most rewarding.

Start with your Forex education and gain the self-awareness necessary to maximize your strengths and suppress your weaknesses. Any expert will tell you that trading is 80% mental. It’s time to sharpen your trading to the razor’s edge and you do this through Forex education. A constant and never ending process that will become the cornerstone of your Forex experience.

5. You must, without wavering, be Determined and Persist to your objective.

You will fail. I can state that emphatically. However, you will not be defeated unless you allow your failures to control your trading. It is the old adage; failure is not falling of your horse, failure is refusing to get back on. Your success depends on your ability to dismiss the criticism, rejection, self-doubt and pressures associated with Forex trading.

Defining what is a winning trade, losing trade and bad trade will go a long way into developing you as a successful trader. Without the determination and persistence in all aspects of your trading life, obstacle will definitely appear closer and larger than they actually are.

Take a moment and assess yourself and your trading. Do you have the key elements to succeed? Which areas are presents development opportunities? When conducting a self-evaluation it is critical to be totally upfront and honest with yourself. After all, you will only be dishonest with yourself. One of the most interesting observations you can make is that all key success factors are interwoven. One factor supports the other. This is why your Forex education is a continuous journey of forex strategy, money management and self-mastery. Set these factors as your Forex education goals and take your currency trading to new heights.

Happy Trading!!

Forex Journey

Trust Yourself

When you turn on the TV (especially mainstream media) you are inundated with news of the demise of the dollar. Business news, national news and even your local news channels are leading into events with reports of the dollar and the economy. Analysts are featured and opinions are smattered across the airwaves in an attempt to provide an oracle response to current economic events.

Beware the source and follow your system.

In these volatile times it is easy to get caught up in the hype provide by all the news media and analyst. It is natural to want to look for guidance. Remember to trust your system and more important trust yourself. You, after all, are the single largest determinant of your success.

Your approach should remain consistent, almost impervious to the events occurring because you follow your plan with discipline and ruthless detail to executing at optimum performance.

Be disciplined and follow your plan. If market conditions don’t suite your style – sit this one out until conditions provide your with your personal edge!

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

How to Adopt the Traits of a Successful Trader

Hey Traders,

Here's a post by Heather Johnson that will serve you well in your trading – Enjoy!

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Not all Forex traders were cut from the same cloth, but the most successful investors do have several things in common. Whether you are a newcomer to trading or you are a seasoned pro who is trying to improve your game plan, the following suggestions may help you out. Below are five ways to evolve into a successful trader:

1. Become a lifelong student – Never stop learning about the business you are in. If you think you know everything about the Forex market, then think again. The successful trader is a lifelong student who constantly absorbs new information about the ever-evolving climate of Forex trading.

2. Be courageous – It's hard to overcome your fears when you are dealing with an unpredictable investment. Even if you are equipped with extensive knowledge about the market, you still have to put your money at risk every day. Reserve a small amount of apprehension (just enough to keep you sensible), but don't hesitate at every turn.

3. Hone your math skills – You are wading through a sea of mathematical information every day when you look over your charts. The most successful traders know how to take that large amount of information and pull out necessary information.

4. Be patient – Become a long-term investor and put all notions of overnight success to rest. You must adopt a stoic attitude, as you make the most informed decisions about your business and leave the rest to fate.

5. Learn to love trading – Maybe you already do love trading and that's why you are involved with Forex. However, many people are either too wrought with anxiety to enjoy it or merely see it as a job. If you don't like trading, don't trade. A great trader will love the roller coaster ride he/she is on.

Are the above suggestions obvious? Perhaps, but many of us take a wrong turn somewhere and need some simple advice to get us back on track. In order to stay on top of your game, you will need to constantly reinvent yourself, as there is no world that calls for flexibility more than the Forex market.

About the Author:

Heather Johnson is a freelance finance and economics writer, as well as a regular contributor for CurrencyTrading.net, a site for currency trading and forex trading
information. Heather welcomes comments and freelancing job inquiries at her email address heatherjohnson2323@gmail.com .


ForexJourney.com

Happy Trading!!

Standard Deviation Channel

I recently read article about, about standard deviation channel, (which as you may already know is one of my favorite indicators), and I was shocked, although author of this article explained what standard deviation channel is in mathematics but it had very little to do with Forex or any other financial market. Furthermore, I read other articles about standard deviation channels and what I found out is that they all were giving useless information to readers, so here is the right way to use standard deviation channel.

First of all, authors suggest that, when price will reach upper line, it is time to take SHORT position and vice versa, when price will reach lower line you should take LONG position because market is oversold.

This is true only if market is trending. It is quite safe to treat then lower line as support line and upper line as resistance line, and more over (depending on your standard deviation channel settings) 95% of price movement will happen between this two lines, as long as market is trending. The obvious question here is how to tell if Forex is trending, but this question is beyond the scope of this article, at least for now J.

What I like about standard deviation is that it allows to easily determine trend, you just need to draw channel over the selected period of time and that’s it, you have detected trend. However to use this indicator efficiently you need some experience, ideally you should see channel on the chart before you draw any lines on it. If you don’t see it, then do not worry it is all about experience.

How to use correctly Standard Deviation Channel

If market is in uptrend, you should take ONLY long positions, when price will reach lower line. Never take SHORT position in uptrend when the price will reach upper line, that do NOT mean that market is overbought, in uptrend price can easily go waaay over upper line and hit STOP LOSS, of trader who was stupid enough to take SHORT position in bull market.

Obviously, the opposite goes for market in downtrend, do not take long positions on lower line, NEVER.

Most importantly, this indicator is called standard deviation channel and you should use it only with CHANNELS not with any random piece of chart, below is the stock market chart with two correctly drawn channels.

Economic Calendar

Earlier, actually in the last post i wrote about importance of knowing what economic data that affect Forex market will be relased and when. This information alone can save you a lot of pain, because, after some key economic indicators are relased, prices in just few minutes can go +200 pips up, and then out of sudden 300 pips down.

This mainly affects day traders or scalpers, and the EUR\USD currency pair. I belive there are many ways you can deal with market moving indicators, but i will list two of my ideas i have came up with:

• Few minutes before economic data announcement hedge your position.
• Not all Forex brokers allows to hedge, if yours not, then you can close your position before data release and open a new one after market will "calm down".

And obviously do not make new trades (other then hedges) before economic data announcement.

More over important economic data dictates trend of the market, so you can use it for simple Forex fundamental analysis.

But the most important question here is, where do i get this data and how will i know which is important and which is not? My all time favourite source for economic data is bloomber economic calendar, which you can find here: ECalendar.

I like this calendar because, it places icon next to particular event, which tells me how important this event is, so i do not have to make my own research on every single event.

From my experience i can tell you that, two events responsible for the biggest moves are: Employment situation and FOMC meeting.

7 signs of bad investment

Buying stocks on stock market or taking positions on Forex, often involves great deal of emotions, especially when you invest a lot of money, or you are starting out with trading and you are not comfortable with putting your money on the risk.

When it comes to money emotions are hard to control however, before you make decision to put money into some stocks, you can try to determine if there are any deadly signs of bad investment behind your decision. (For a full article visit ASXNewbie website, i will just list quickly those signs and make my comments on it).

Here they are: 7 signs of bad investment

1. Research, lack of research is probably one of the greatest mistake you can make, if you make good research, then you can get at least some confidence in your trade, which is important when it goes bad at the beginning.
2. Hesitation on fundamentals, this mainly applies to stock market, Forex traders rearly have to focus on fundamental data
3. Buying stocks for long term with no end in mind, it speaks for itself.
4. Not being aware of important announcements, on Forex it is useful to know when important economic data will be released, such as employment situation which is responsible for a big price changes in short time.
5. Sometimes investment needs care, especially if you trade long term
6. It is not a shame to get rid of bad investment or position, this goes back to the do not risk more then 5% of your capital on the single trade.
7. Doing what everyone else is doing, this is often mistake of unexperienced trader, be your own guru, do not look at other to know what to do, especially if they are losesr.
   

Mentioned article is more relevent to stock market, so i changed a bit all seven points to make them fit perfectly Forex market.

Societe Generale reveals how it was duped in trading scam

Do you remember when lately SocGen anounced that junior trader frauded over $70 bilion? That is a lot of cash and this case has to be explained to public opinion and it seems that bank managers and trader which is partly as i belive responsible for such a big loss are trying to do it.

It maybe not article about Forex but, it is about trading, maybe even about great tragedy. We always learn from mistakes, and it is better to learn from someones else mistakes then yours so i advice you to read it.

Here is a short excerpt to encourage you to reading, by the way it is quite long.

"French bank Societe Generale has admitted that a gap in control systems allowed a junior trader to take a $73 billion losing bet on European share prices, but defended its handling of the world's biggest trading scandal.

Prosecutors said the trader, 31-year-old Jerome Kerviel, would remain in custody until Monday after handing himself in on Saturday and was co-operating with a probe into how the bank racked up $7 billion losses on alleged illicit deals.

Kerviel's new lawyer said he had been doing a trader's job by taking on risk and accused the bank of setting him up for a public "lynching" by letting him carry all the blame.

"He has not embezzled anyone, he hasn't taken a cent for himself and he was just doing his job as best he could," Christian Charriere-Bournazel told Reuters."

Read more here Checks by SocGen missed $73 billion wrong-way bet

Forex reserves swell $3.2 bilion

Another interesting article about forex reserves.

"Foreign exchange reserves rose by $3.16 billion in the week ending January 18, 2008 taking the total reserves to a record $284.98 billion. Money market dealers said that the rise in the forex reserves was largely on account of subscription to the IPO of Reliance Energy that closed on January 18.

The public offering is expected to have drawn in large scale funds from foreign institutional investors. During the same week, the BSE’s benchmark index, Sensex, had dipped about 1,000 points to close at 19,700 with most FII selling shares.

The foreign currency assets stood at $276.13 billion while the reserves with IMF was down by $1 million to $433 million, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India in its Weekly Statistical report. In the two weeks ended January 18, forex reserves rose by $8.3 billion. For the second consecutive week, the government’s deposits with the Reserve Bank rose."

Read more here Forex reserves swell $3.2 bn on IPO inflows

How forex market should operate

Interesting article at Vanguard, author explains how Forex market should operate. Article is based on proposal for a liberalized foreign exchange market in Nigeria and its economic benefits.

Two most interesting sections selected by author are:

• How market will operate
• Payment for import and forex auction

"3.6 HOW THE MARKET WILL OPERATE
The CBN will consolidate the distributable portion of the dollar earnings monthly (or at worst bimonthly) in arrears. The realizable values will be published in appropriate government bulletins monthly.

3.6.1 The CBN would issue warrants denominated in dollars monthly without fail to each beneficiary of federally derived dollar revenue according to constitutional provisions with regard to sharing of such revenue.

3.6.2 The beneficiary of the dollar warrant (strictly not cash) (federal, state, local governments, statutory agencies etc) will approach their separate bankers with their dollar warrants for conversion of all or part of the dollar warrant into naira for its corporate budgetary obligations which cannot be paid in dollars (since the dollar is not legal tender in Nigeria).

3.6.3 All buying and selling of currencies will be carried out through a bank or any other such denominated financial institution.

The local bank officer on receipt of the request would seek current rate confirmation from its head office before concluding a deal."

Read more here: Dollar allocations

Amero Revolution?

Recently i was watching movie Zeitgeist. Pretty cool movie if you haven't seen it i advice you to do it. It consists of three parts first is about Christianity and Jesus, second amd third are about America, power and money which interests most i belive.

Anyway, in a part three there is mentioned new currency Amero. Which will be new currency for North America (Canada, USA, Mexico). So it seems that end for our favourite currency pair is neer, and the question is not: will it happen? will USD will be replaced with Amero? but rather when will it happen? From my informations it will be around 2010, but really it is hard to tell.

The best way to replace USD is to make it weaker and weaker which is happening and we can see it on our Forex charts. So maybe it is a good idea to take long term position against dollar?

This is not important. What is important is this. How will new currency affect Forex market? In my opinion not much. It will be a currency as any other currency on Forex, the only problem will be a fact that there will be no history for it.

This means no backtesting, and even no "space" for technical analysis. However these will be problems only for long term traders or swing traders. I guess scalpers will be okay with this because they do not need a lot of data, but i do not know i am not a scalper.

However, what concerns me most is that we will loose three currencies and gain only one new, which happen further again because of Asian union which is getting ready to introduce asian currency (asio?).

Why the Fed is such a Lousy Wizard of Oz

Another interesting articles from my friends over at Elliottwave.

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Why the Fed is Such a Lousy Wizard of Oz
By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave InternationalSeptember 7, 2007

Central bankers who "follow the yellow brick road" end up in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, every Labor Day weekend for their annual symposium sponsored by – who else? – the Kansas City Fed. (Who can forget Judy Garland saying to her little dog, "Toto, I've got a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore," in the 1939 movie, The Wizard of Oz?)

The Jackson Hole Resort serves as the Federal Reserve's equivalent of the Emerald City, as Fed governors and presidents meet with central bankers and economists from around the world to discuss economic issues. This year, the symposium focused on housing and monetary policy. Usually, the Fed chairman kicks off the symposium and, this year, the new chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, did the honors. He closed his speech with these words:

"The interaction of housing, housing finance, and economic activity has for years been of central importance for understanding the behavior of the economy, and it will continue to be central to our thinking as we try to anticipate economic and financial developments."

Then came the other speeches. And it seems that some of the guests in Emerald City were waiting for their chance to pull back the curtain and prove that the Wonderful Wizard of Oz isn't such a wizard after all. Bloomberg reported that "Federal Reserve officials, wrestling with a housing recession that jeopardizes U.S. growth, got an earful from critics at a weekend retreat, arguing they should use regulation and interest rates to prevent asset-price bubbles."

Apparently, one academic paper presented at Jackson Hole graded the Fed an 'F' for the way it has handled the repercussions from the rise and fall of the housing market.

Truth be told, these folks are a little late to the table as critics of the Fed. We're glad they're joining us, but here's what they still haven't learned: It isn't because the Federal Reserve messes up by allowing credit, asset and stock bubbles to form that it's not a wizard. The Federal Reserve isn't a wizard for one particular reason that it doesn't want anybody to know – and that is that the Fed doesn't lead the financial markets, it follows them.

People everywhere want to believe in the Fed's wizardry. But all this talk about how the Fed will be able to help the U.S. economy and hold up the markets by cutting rates now is as much hooey as the Wizard of Oz promising Dorothy, the Scarecrow, the Tin Man and the Cowardly Lion that he could give them what they wanted: a return to Kansas, a brain, a heart, and courage. Because when the Fed does do something, it always comes after the markets have already made their moves.

If you don't believe it, you should look at one chart from the most recent Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. It compares the movements in the Fed Funds rate with the movements of the 3-month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield. What does it reveal? That the Fed has followed the T-Bill yield up and down every step of the way since 2000. And the interesting question becomes this: Since the T-bill yield has dropped nearly two points since February, how soon will the Fed cut its rate to follow the market's lead this time?

[Editor's note: You can see this chart and read the Special Section it appears in by accessing the free report, The Unwonderful Wizardry of the Fed.]

We've got our own brains, heart and courage here at Elliott Wave International, and we've used them to explain over and over again that putting faith in the Fed to turn around the markets and the economy is blind faith indeed.

"This blind faith in the Fed's power to hold up the economy and stocks epitomizes the following definition of magic offered by Teller of the illusionist and comedy team of Penn and Teller: a 'theatrical linking of a cause with an effect that has no basis in physical reality, but that – in our hearts – ought to be.'" [September 2007, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast]

Because, you see, what makes the markets move has less to do with what the unwizardly Fed does and more with changes in the mass psychology of all the people investing in those markets. The Elliott Wave Principle describes how bullish and bearish trends in the financial markets reflect changes in social mood, from positive to negative and back again. To extend the metaphor: The Fed can't affect social mood anymore than the Wonderful Wizard of Oz could change the direction of the wind that brought his hot air balloon to the Land of Oz in the first place.

As our EWI analysts write, "With respect to the timing of the Federal Reserve Board rate cuts, we need to reiterate one key point. The market, not the Fed, sets rates." Being able to understand this information puts you one step closer to clicking your ruby red shoes together and whispering those magic words: "There's no place like home." Once you land back in Kansas, your eyes will open, and you will see that an unwarranted faith in the Fed was just a bad dream.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.

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Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

Regret Will Kill Your Forex Account

OK, so you just pulled the trigger on a trade and every bone in your body told you not to. You violated the rules dictated in your trade plan and you watched a small profit immediately turn into a major loss.

Sound familiar? What do you do?

You get over it, that’s what you do! Regret over a bad trade will eat your account from the inside out. Regret is a more powerful emotion than most traders recognize. It is like the unwanted guest that keeps living off of your bank account until there is no more left. It takes most traders into a tailspin that they will never recover. It can lead to dangerous psychological results such as failure to pull the trigger over even worse, paralysis by analysis.

“Yeah, but…” (I will save the disempowerment of this statement for another day)

It’s not easy putting those emotions aside when your money is on the line. That’s why they called it trading, folks. In Forex someone is on the other side of the trade controlling their emotions and eventually controlling your account balance. If you want to find consistency you must never let regret live in your trading experience.

Here’s what I do to combat this debilitating emotion … I get over it! How do I do this? I simply perform a post mortem of my bad trades (I still have them every now and then) and keep a detailed journal. Over time I began to recognize my personal triggers and simply tweaked my trade plan to be a more proactive currency trader and avoid the situations that led to the bad trade in the first place, in my instance over-trading or being tired.

What trader do I model my approach after? The answer may surprise you!

The answer is Tiger Woods.

I play golf, so you could imagine I am a huge fan of Tiger Woods. There are a lot of similarities between golf and trading. Both venues offer a look at who we are as a person, raw and uncensored. Both live in the world of risk and reward.

I admire Tiger Woods skill as a golfer, but even more so his mental toughness. Next time you watch Tiger Wood hit a bad shot follow his reaction. His immediate reaction is to get upset, really upset. Then count 5 seconds. His expressions and demeanor will have returned to one of focus and concentration.

And the funny thing is that is doesn’t matter what kind of prize money is online. He takes the same approach to every golf shot, in every tournament.

Let’s translate that to trading. Do you give yourself 5 seconds to get over a bad trade? Do you take the same approach to every trade?

Stop living in the world of regret and only think about the possibilities of wining trades and you will find your experiences trading the Forex market one filled with achievement and success.

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending

If you're wondering how the housing market collapse in the US will impact your favorite Central Banker (and interest rates), here's an interesting article to help support your fundamental Forex analysis:

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Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending

By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International

January 7, 2008

In the bleak midwinter, Frosty wind made moan,Earth stood hard as iron, Water like a stone…(From "A Christmas Carol" by Christina Rossetti)
Shawn Colvin sings a beautiful song based on this poem by Christina Rossetti, reminding us of the bleakness of midwinter. That is exactly where the housing market seems to be now – facing its very own bleak midwinter of falling prices, rising mortgage rates and growing inventories.

The latest report of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index shows that the price of houses fell 6.7% in October, year over year. That is the largest year-to-year decline drop since April 1991.

Think of it – if you had bought a home for $300,000 in October 2006, it is now worth about $280,000. And suppose you just got a new job and need to move? You are going to have trouble selling it at that price, too, thanks to so many foreclosed homes on the market. One realtor in Phoenix explained to a Wall Street Journal reporter that local residents are now competing with foreclosed homes selling for $50,000 to $100,000 less than other houses on the market. "The sellers now are having to reduce their prices by 20% to 30% to compete," she says. (Wall Street Journal, "Pace of Decline in Home Prices Sets a Record," 12/27/07)

At a meeting of the New York Society of Security Analysts on January 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said this about the U.S. economy: "We will likely have further indications of slower growth in the weeks and months ahead.''

Paulson and central bankers at the U.S. Federal Reserve recognize that they, too, face their own bleak financial midwinter. It's not just the mayhem brought on by the subprime mortgage debacle, the implosion of the housing market and the ensuing credit crunch; nor is it that the U.S. economy lurches toward a recession and hard times.

No, it is something bigger than that. Public opinion or social mood, as we call it here at Elliott Wave International, has shifted from positive to negative. When that happens, financial heroes find themselves falling from their pedestals onto frozen earth hard as iron.

Exhibit A - The headline of a recent article on Bloomberg: "Paulson Gets Diminishing Return with Bush, Like Powell, O'Neill" and the lead: "Henry Paulson escaped the Nixon White House with his reputation enhanced. He won't be so lucky this time around."

Exhibit B - The lead from a recent column by David Ignatius in the Washington Post:
"When airport rescue crews are worried that a damaged plane may have a crash landing, they sometimes spread the runway with foam to reduce the probability of fire on impact. That's what the Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing in pumping liquidity into severely damaged financial markets. Make no mistake: The central bankers' announcement Wednesday of a new coordinated effort to pump cash into the global financial system is a sign of their nervousness…."
Nervousness is in the air now. Investors are anxious about the markets; everyone is worried about the housing market.

Our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast December issue explains how housing starts (and stops) are intimately tied to recessions: "One key indicator of success in pre-dating economic downturns is housing starts, which are approaching the 1-million-a-month level that has preceded all recessions of the last 40 years."

And the Fed is nervous, too. So much so that it announced a credit giveaway with four other major central banks (the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank) in mid-December to try to bolster the financial system and the banks that keep it humming. The Fed reports that banks have been stepping up to its auction window each week to purchase $20 billion. Unfortunately for the banks, most of this "liquidity" isn't that liquid. It has to be paid back within 30 days, with interest of about 4.65%.

Editor's note: Elliott Wave International has agreed to make available to our readers a 2-1/2-page excerpt from Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist in which he describes exactly how the Fed's latest effort to shore up banks' balance sheets has become "High Noon for the Fed's Credibility." Click here to read the Theorist excerpt.

Just how bleak is the future for central bankers if this recently implemented plan doesn't work? Bob Prechter explains in his just-published Theorist:

"Nevertheless, this is probably the single most important central-bank pronouncement yet. But it is not significant for the reasons people think. By far most people take such pronouncements at face value, presume that what the authorities promise will happen and reason from there. But the tremendous significance of this seismic engagement of the monetary jawbone is that if this announcement fails to restore confidence, central bankers' credibility will evaporate."

"At least that's the way historians will play it. But of course, the true causality, as elucidated by socionomics, is that an evaporation of confidence will make the central bankers' plans fail. The outcome is predicated on psychology."

The "socionomics" Prechter refers to is a new social science he has introduced that studies how humans behave in groups within contexts of uncertainty – where fluctuations in social mood motivate social actions. It explains that rather than an event happening that affects social mood (for example, falling home prices make people feel bad), what really happens is that social mood changes first from positive to negative and then lousy things happen (for example, unhappy people make home prices fall). If you can adopt this point of view, then you can see that, in poetic terms, we are fast approaching a bleak midwinter for the economy and the financial markets.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.

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Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney.com

A Forex Trader’s Lifestyle

Whether you are a novice Forex trader or a seasoned veteran one aspect you must always take into account is to ensure your lifestyle supports successful trading. Forex trading is no different from any other endeavor in life. Whether you are employee, employer or self-employed you must take the time and effort to ensure your environment is conducive to your success.

Take a look at your surroundings and make sure your lifestyle supports you being a successful Forex trader. Take in all the factors of success (how YOU define success) evaluate your factors to make sure your trading is:

Specific – Do you have specific trading goals and objectives? Do you have a trading plan? Ask yourself is your plan to general?

Measurable – Do you have systems in place to objectively measure your performance? If you don’t know your numbers then do you really have a trading business?

Has a Timeline – Do you have a timeline for which you are measuring your goals and objectives against?

Controllable – There are many aspects in Forex trading you can’t control, ensure that the areas your can control are firmly defined and managed with discipline.

Programmed Into Your Lifestyle – Are your Forex trading activities programmed and congruent with your lifestyle? Balance is important so make sure this passes the test!

Taken in Small Steps - This business is a marathon and not a sprint. Start off with small steps and build. The best practice trading principals do not change with account size.

Accountable – Forex trading (or any trading for that matter) can be such an isolated activity. Find ways to have others participate and hold you accountable for your goals. Make it real and measurable!

True Forex success is built through smart work and dedication. By establishing the trading lifestyle that best supports your personality will guarantee prolonged success. Remember, it is your Forex Journey. Be sure you enjoy the ride!

Happy Trading!!

Simple Forex strategies

I havent't recently updated this blog because, i am currently more focused on Stock Market, and system for sports betting which i recently created. When i will finish it, i wil give you link to this system, i suppose it will be free till the end of the season.

Anyway, simple forex strategies, what i mean by that? In my mind these are strategies that are very simple :). I often see guys with super advanced entry strategies. They use MACD, RSI, ADX, 10 different MAs and EMAs, Fibbonaci retracement, Elliot Waves to predict the best entry point.

I think it's funny.

Because often these guys do not realize that actually there are only two types of indicators.

• Trend following - indicates whatever Market is in up or down trend (MACD for example)
• Momentum - tells you if Market is overbought or oversold (RSI)
  

There are also Volume and Volatility indicators but they are not suitable for Forex market. So if you use more then 2 indicators then you can right now narrow your choice down to only two.

How many oscillators do i use? I use none or zero, so in my mind forex strategy with 2 indicators is still complex strategy. Traders often say that you need a lot of indicators to get rid of false signal. But what i found out when i started using many tools was that i got as many signals that i should take LONG position as for SHORT position. So, keep in mind the old saying: sometimes less is more.

After eliminating all oscillators we are left with very simple tools:

• trend lines, as well as support and resistance levels
  
• Fibbonacci retracement

When i trade Forex i also use two other tools the are not as much popular as MACD, RSI but they work for me.

• Andrews' Pitchfork
• Standard Deviation Channel

All of them, help me to determine trend, because what forex trading really comes down to is:

Determine trend, but do NOT try to predict future, it is impossible. determine trend based on what you already have on the chart. There are at least three types of trend: up, down, consolidation, i think i already said it, but it is worth repeating over and over.

Determine Take Profit and Stop Loss, GO IN. That's it.

Ok so to sum this up. You can build a very complex strategy or system if it works for you, it didn't work for me at all. But remember, do not underestimate value and importance of very simple tools like trend lines, fibbonacci retracement and standard deviation channels.