OK, so you just pulled the trigger on a trade and every bone in your body told you not to. You violated the rules dictated in your trade plan and you watched a small profit immediately turn into a major loss.
Sound familiar? What do you do?
You get over it, that’s what you do! Regret over a bad trade will eat your account from the inside out. Regret is a more powerful emotion than most traders recognize. It is like the unwanted guest that keeps living off of your bank account until there is no more left. It takes most traders into a tailspin that they will never recover. It can lead to dangerous psychological results such as failure to pull the trigger over even worse, paralysis by analysis.
“Yeah, but…” (I will save the disempowerment of this statement for another day)
It’s not easy putting those emotions aside when your money is on the line. That’s why they called it trading, folks. In Forex someone is on the other side of the trade controlling their emotions and eventually controlling your account balance. If you want to find consistency you must never let regret live in your trading experience.
Here’s what I do to combat this debilitating emotion … I get over it! How do I do this? I simply perform a post mortem of my bad trades (I still have them every now and then) and keep a detailed journal. Over time I began to recognize my personal triggers and simply tweaked my trade plan to be a more proactive currency trader and avoid the situations that led to the bad trade in the first place, in my instance over-trading or being tired.
What trader do I model my approach after? The answer may surprise you!
The answer is Tiger Woods.
I play golf, so you could imagine I am a huge fan of Tiger Woods. There are a lot of similarities between golf and trading. Both venues offer a look at who we are as a person, raw and uncensored. Both live in the world of risk and reward.
I admire Tiger Woods skill as a golfer, but even more so his mental toughness. Next time you watch Tiger Wood hit a bad shot follow his reaction. His immediate reaction is to get upset, really upset. Then count 5 seconds. His expressions and demeanor will have returned to one of focus and concentration.
And the funny thing is that is doesn’t matter what kind of prize money is online. He takes the same approach to every golf shot, in every tournament.
Let’s translate that to trading. Do you give yourself 5 seconds to get over a bad trade? Do you take the same approach to every trade?
Stop living in the world of regret and only think about the possibilities of wining trades and you will find your experiences trading the Forex market one filled with achievement and success.
Happy Trading!!
ForexJourney
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Monday, January 7, 2008
Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending
If you're wondering how the housing market collapse in the US will impact your favorite Central Banker (and interest rates), here's an interesting article to help support your fundamental Forex analysis:
***************************************
Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending
By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International
January 7, 2008
In the bleak midwinter, Frosty wind made moan,Earth stood hard as iron, Water like a stone…(From "A Christmas Carol" by Christina Rossetti)
Shawn Colvin sings a beautiful song based on this poem by Christina Rossetti, reminding us of the bleakness of midwinter. That is exactly where the housing market seems to be now – facing its very own bleak midwinter of falling prices, rising mortgage rates and growing inventories.
The latest report of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index shows that the price of houses fell 6.7% in October, year over year. That is the largest year-to-year decline drop since April 1991.
Think of it – if you had bought a home for $300,000 in October 2006, it is now worth about $280,000. And suppose you just got a new job and need to move? You are going to have trouble selling it at that price, too, thanks to so many foreclosed homes on the market. One realtor in Phoenix explained to a Wall Street Journal reporter that local residents are now competing with foreclosed homes selling for $50,000 to $100,000 less than other houses on the market. "The sellers now are having to reduce their prices by 20% to 30% to compete," she says. (Wall Street Journal, "Pace of Decline in Home Prices Sets a Record," 12/27/07)
At a meeting of the New York Society of Security Analysts on January 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said this about the U.S. economy: "We will likely have further indications of slower growth in the weeks and months ahead.''
Paulson and central bankers at the U.S. Federal Reserve recognize that they, too, face their own bleak financial midwinter. It's not just the mayhem brought on by the subprime mortgage debacle, the implosion of the housing market and the ensuing credit crunch; nor is it that the U.S. economy lurches toward a recession and hard times.
No, it is something bigger than that. Public opinion or social mood, as we call it here at Elliott Wave International, has shifted from positive to negative. When that happens, financial heroes find themselves falling from their pedestals onto frozen earth hard as iron.
Exhibit A - The headline of a recent article on Bloomberg: "Paulson Gets Diminishing Return with Bush, Like Powell, O'Neill" and the lead: "Henry Paulson escaped the Nixon White House with his reputation enhanced. He won't be so lucky this time around."
Exhibit B - The lead from a recent column by David Ignatius in the Washington Post:
"When airport rescue crews are worried that a damaged plane may have a crash landing, they sometimes spread the runway with foam to reduce the probability of fire on impact. That's what the Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing in pumping liquidity into severely damaged financial markets. Make no mistake: The central bankers' announcement Wednesday of a new coordinated effort to pump cash into the global financial system is a sign of their nervousness…."
Nervousness is in the air now. Investors are anxious about the markets; everyone is worried about the housing market.
Our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast December issue explains how housing starts (and stops) are intimately tied to recessions: "One key indicator of success in pre-dating economic downturns is housing starts, which are approaching the 1-million-a-month level that has preceded all recessions of the last 40 years."
And the Fed is nervous, too. So much so that it announced a credit giveaway with four other major central banks (the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank) in mid-December to try to bolster the financial system and the banks that keep it humming. The Fed reports that banks have been stepping up to its auction window each week to purchase $20 billion. Unfortunately for the banks, most of this "liquidity" isn't that liquid. It has to be paid back within 30 days, with interest of about 4.65%.
Editor's note: Elliott Wave International has agreed to make available to our readers a 2-1/2-page excerpt from Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist in which he describes exactly how the Fed's latest effort to shore up banks' balance sheets has become "High Noon for the Fed's Credibility." Click here to read the Theorist excerpt.
Just how bleak is the future for central bankers if this recently implemented plan doesn't work? Bob Prechter explains in his just-published Theorist:
"Nevertheless, this is probably the single most important central-bank pronouncement yet. But it is not significant for the reasons people think. By far most people take such pronouncements at face value, presume that what the authorities promise will happen and reason from there. But the tremendous significance of this seismic engagement of the monetary jawbone is that if this announcement fails to restore confidence, central bankers' credibility will evaporate."
"At least that's the way historians will play it. But of course, the true causality, as elucidated by socionomics, is that an evaporation of confidence will make the central bankers' plans fail. The outcome is predicated on psychology."
The "socionomics" Prechter refers to is a new social science he has introduced that studies how humans behave in groups within contexts of uncertainty – where fluctuations in social mood motivate social actions. It explains that rather than an event happening that affects social mood (for example, falling home prices make people feel bad), what really happens is that social mood changes first from positive to negative and then lousy things happen (for example, unhappy people make home prices fall). If you can adopt this point of view, then you can see that, in poetic terms, we are fast approaching a bleak midwinter for the economy and the financial markets.
Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.
***************************************
Happy Trading!!
ForexJourney.com
***************************************
Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending
By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International
January 7, 2008
In the bleak midwinter, Frosty wind made moan,Earth stood hard as iron, Water like a stone…(From "A Christmas Carol" by Christina Rossetti)
Shawn Colvin sings a beautiful song based on this poem by Christina Rossetti, reminding us of the bleakness of midwinter. That is exactly where the housing market seems to be now – facing its very own bleak midwinter of falling prices, rising mortgage rates and growing inventories.
The latest report of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index shows that the price of houses fell 6.7% in October, year over year. That is the largest year-to-year decline drop since April 1991.
Think of it – if you had bought a home for $300,000 in October 2006, it is now worth about $280,000. And suppose you just got a new job and need to move? You are going to have trouble selling it at that price, too, thanks to so many foreclosed homes on the market. One realtor in Phoenix explained to a Wall Street Journal reporter that local residents are now competing with foreclosed homes selling for $50,000 to $100,000 less than other houses on the market. "The sellers now are having to reduce their prices by 20% to 30% to compete," she says. (Wall Street Journal, "Pace of Decline in Home Prices Sets a Record," 12/27/07)
At a meeting of the New York Society of Security Analysts on January 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said this about the U.S. economy: "We will likely have further indications of slower growth in the weeks and months ahead.''
Paulson and central bankers at the U.S. Federal Reserve recognize that they, too, face their own bleak financial midwinter. It's not just the mayhem brought on by the subprime mortgage debacle, the implosion of the housing market and the ensuing credit crunch; nor is it that the U.S. economy lurches toward a recession and hard times.
No, it is something bigger than that. Public opinion or social mood, as we call it here at Elliott Wave International, has shifted from positive to negative. When that happens, financial heroes find themselves falling from their pedestals onto frozen earth hard as iron.
Exhibit A - The headline of a recent article on Bloomberg: "Paulson Gets Diminishing Return with Bush, Like Powell, O'Neill" and the lead: "Henry Paulson escaped the Nixon White House with his reputation enhanced. He won't be so lucky this time around."
Exhibit B - The lead from a recent column by David Ignatius in the Washington Post:
"When airport rescue crews are worried that a damaged plane may have a crash landing, they sometimes spread the runway with foam to reduce the probability of fire on impact. That's what the Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing in pumping liquidity into severely damaged financial markets. Make no mistake: The central bankers' announcement Wednesday of a new coordinated effort to pump cash into the global financial system is a sign of their nervousness…."
Nervousness is in the air now. Investors are anxious about the markets; everyone is worried about the housing market.
Our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast December issue explains how housing starts (and stops) are intimately tied to recessions: "One key indicator of success in pre-dating economic downturns is housing starts, which are approaching the 1-million-a-month level that has preceded all recessions of the last 40 years."
And the Fed is nervous, too. So much so that it announced a credit giveaway with four other major central banks (the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank) in mid-December to try to bolster the financial system and the banks that keep it humming. The Fed reports that banks have been stepping up to its auction window each week to purchase $20 billion. Unfortunately for the banks, most of this "liquidity" isn't that liquid. It has to be paid back within 30 days, with interest of about 4.65%.
Editor's note: Elliott Wave International has agreed to make available to our readers a 2-1/2-page excerpt from Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist in which he describes exactly how the Fed's latest effort to shore up banks' balance sheets has become "High Noon for the Fed's Credibility." Click here to read the Theorist excerpt.
Just how bleak is the future for central bankers if this recently implemented plan doesn't work? Bob Prechter explains in his just-published Theorist:
"Nevertheless, this is probably the single most important central-bank pronouncement yet. But it is not significant for the reasons people think. By far most people take such pronouncements at face value, presume that what the authorities promise will happen and reason from there. But the tremendous significance of this seismic engagement of the monetary jawbone is that if this announcement fails to restore confidence, central bankers' credibility will evaporate."
"At least that's the way historians will play it. But of course, the true causality, as elucidated by socionomics, is that an evaporation of confidence will make the central bankers' plans fail. The outcome is predicated on psychology."
The "socionomics" Prechter refers to is a new social science he has introduced that studies how humans behave in groups within contexts of uncertainty – where fluctuations in social mood motivate social actions. It explains that rather than an event happening that affects social mood (for example, falling home prices make people feel bad), what really happens is that social mood changes first from positive to negative and then lousy things happen (for example, unhappy people make home prices fall). If you can adopt this point of view, then you can see that, in poetic terms, we are fast approaching a bleak midwinter for the economy and the financial markets.
Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.
***************************************
Happy Trading!!
ForexJourney.com
Thursday, January 3, 2008
A Forex Trader’s Lifestyle
Whether you are a novice Forex trader or a seasoned veteran one aspect you must always take into account is to ensure your lifestyle supports successful trading. Forex trading is no different from any other endeavor in life. Whether you are employee, employer or self-employed you must take the time and effort to ensure your environment is conducive to your success.
Take a look at your surroundings and make sure your lifestyle supports you being a successful Forex trader. Take in all the factors of success (how YOU define success) evaluate your factors to make sure your trading is:
Specific – Do you have specific trading goals and objectives? Do you have a trading plan? Ask yourself is your plan to general?
Measurable – Do you have systems in place to objectively measure your performance? If you don’t know your numbers then do you really have a trading business?
Has a Timeline – Do you have a timeline for which you are measuring your goals and objectives against?
Controllable – There are many aspects in Forex trading you can’t control, ensure that the areas your can control are firmly defined and managed with discipline.
Programmed Into Your Lifestyle – Are your Forex trading activities programmed and congruent with your lifestyle? Balance is important so make sure this passes the test!
Taken in Small Steps - This business is a marathon and not a sprint. Start off with small steps and build. The best practice trading principals do not change with account size.
Accountable – Forex trading (or any trading for that matter) can be such an isolated activity. Find ways to have others participate and hold you accountable for your goals. Make it real and measurable!
True Forex success is built through smart work and dedication. By establishing the trading lifestyle that best supports your personality will guarantee prolonged success. Remember, it is your Forex Journey. Be sure you enjoy the ride!
Happy Trading!!
Take a look at your surroundings and make sure your lifestyle supports you being a successful Forex trader. Take in all the factors of success (how YOU define success) evaluate your factors to make sure your trading is:
Specific – Do you have specific trading goals and objectives? Do you have a trading plan? Ask yourself is your plan to general?
Measurable – Do you have systems in place to objectively measure your performance? If you don’t know your numbers then do you really have a trading business?
Has a Timeline – Do you have a timeline for which you are measuring your goals and objectives against?
Controllable – There are many aspects in Forex trading you can’t control, ensure that the areas your can control are firmly defined and managed with discipline.
Programmed Into Your Lifestyle – Are your Forex trading activities programmed and congruent with your lifestyle? Balance is important so make sure this passes the test!
Taken in Small Steps - This business is a marathon and not a sprint. Start off with small steps and build. The best practice trading principals do not change with account size.
Accountable – Forex trading (or any trading for that matter) can be such an isolated activity. Find ways to have others participate and hold you accountable for your goals. Make it real and measurable!
True Forex success is built through smart work and dedication. By establishing the trading lifestyle that best supports your personality will guarantee prolonged success. Remember, it is your Forex Journey. Be sure you enjoy the ride!
Happy Trading!!
Simple Forex strategies
I havent't recently updated this blog because, i am currently more focused on Stock Market, and system for sports betting which i recently created. When i will finish it, i wil give you link to this system, i suppose it will be free till the end of the season.
Anyway, simple forex strategies, what i mean by that? In my mind these are strategies that are very simple :). I often see guys with super advanced entry strategies. They use MACD, RSI, ADX, 10 different MAs and EMAs, Fibbonaci retracement, Elliot Waves to predict the best entry point.
I think it's funny.
Because often these guys do not realize that actually there are only two types of indicators.
How many oscillators do i use? I use none or zero, so in my mind forex strategy with 2 indicators is still complex strategy. Traders often say that you need a lot of indicators to get rid of false signal. But what i found out when i started using many tools was that i got as many signals that i should take LONG position as for SHORT position. So, keep in mind the old saying: sometimes less is more.
After eliminating all oscillators we are left with very simple tools:
Determine trend, but do NOT try to predict future, it is impossible. determine trend based on what you already have on the chart. There are at least three types of trend: up, down, consolidation, i think i already said it, but it is worth repeating over and over.
Determine Take Profit and Stop Loss, GO IN. That's it.
Ok so to sum this up. You can build a very complex strategy or system if it works for you, it didn't work for me at all. But remember, do not underestimate value and importance of very simple tools like trend lines, fibbonacci retracement and standard deviation channels.
Anyway, simple forex strategies, what i mean by that? In my mind these are strategies that are very simple :). I often see guys with super advanced entry strategies. They use MACD, RSI, ADX, 10 different MAs and EMAs, Fibbonaci retracement, Elliot Waves to predict the best entry point.
I think it's funny.
Because often these guys do not realize that actually there are only two types of indicators.
- Trend following - indicates whatever Market is in up or down trend (MACD for example)
- Momentum - tells you if Market is overbought or oversold (RSI)
How many oscillators do i use? I use none or zero, so in my mind forex strategy with 2 indicators is still complex strategy. Traders often say that you need a lot of indicators to get rid of false signal. But what i found out when i started using many tools was that i got as many signals that i should take LONG position as for SHORT position. So, keep in mind the old saying: sometimes less is more.
After eliminating all oscillators we are left with very simple tools:
- trend lines, as well as support and resistance levels
- Fibbonacci retracement
- Andrews' Pitchfork
- Standard Deviation Channel
Determine trend, but do NOT try to predict future, it is impossible. determine trend based on what you already have on the chart. There are at least three types of trend: up, down, consolidation, i think i already said it, but it is worth repeating over and over.
Determine Take Profit and Stop Loss, GO IN. That's it.
Ok so to sum this up. You can build a very complex strategy or system if it works for you, it didn't work for me at all. But remember, do not underestimate value and importance of very simple tools like trend lines, fibbonacci retracement and standard deviation channels.
Monday, December 31, 2007
The ONLY Difference Between Professional Traders and Amateurs Is ...
He's a blog posting from one of my friends on mySpace, Barry. To close the year I couldn't resist posting this for thought!
****************************************************
Here's a revelation that changed my trading forever:
"Successful trading is imply a business of not making mistakes."
That has become such a cornerstone to my trading that I actually framed that saying and put it on my wall over my trading flat screens.
One of the most productive things you can do to become a profitable trader is to make a list of your most common mistakes.
Awareness is the first step.
Then watch your behavior and don't allow yourself to make those mistakes any more.
Each of us has her or his own challenges, so you must make your own list.
But to get you started, I'll expose my sins and share with you what have been my most common mistakes over the years. This is the official list of my own 7 most common mistakes. Perhaps you'll find it helpful:
1. Missing trades. When my setup occurs I need to make sure I'm aware of it and haven't been distracted by chat rooms, email, phone calls or lulled into boredom by a consolidating market.
I also need to make sure I don't hesitate to pull the trigger when I do see my setups.
2. Trading reversals that are not in extended trends and during which the internal market energy has not reversed.
3. Trading only 1 time frame without the confirmation of a longer term chart.
4. Trading while tired.
5. Over trading. Never try to make up for losses or missed trades. Never trade out of boredom. Never take any trade that doesn't match my rules 100%.
6. Not taking profits on my first exit soon enough. This is critical to adjust my cost position in the trade and therefore keep losses small.
7. Exiting my entire position too soon. I must keep at least part of my position alive until the energy of the trade has shifted so that I can ride the big moves.
Well, that's my confession.
Now you know my sins, but I imagine they're not so different than yours.
Have you committed these trading sins ... or your own unique ones?
The only solution is to REPENT!
That doesn't simply mean to say you're sorry.
It means to change your behavior.
Many people treat trading as:
an intellectual exercise.
a mathematical challenge.
or a research project.
Actually it's more about managing your behavior than anything else ... of course that's often the most difficult thing of all!
*********************************************************
I couldn't have said it better!
Barry can be found at: http://www.myspace.com/topdogtrading
Happy New Year !!
Forex Journey
****************************************************
Here's a revelation that changed my trading forever:
"Successful trading is imply a business of not making mistakes."
That has become such a cornerstone to my trading that I actually framed that saying and put it on my wall over my trading flat screens.
One of the most productive things you can do to become a profitable trader is to make a list of your most common mistakes.
Awareness is the first step.
Then watch your behavior and don't allow yourself to make those mistakes any more.
Each of us has her or his own challenges, so you must make your own list.
But to get you started, I'll expose my sins and share with you what have been my most common mistakes over the years. This is the official list of my own 7 most common mistakes. Perhaps you'll find it helpful:
1. Missing trades. When my setup occurs I need to make sure I'm aware of it and haven't been distracted by chat rooms, email, phone calls or lulled into boredom by a consolidating market.
I also need to make sure I don't hesitate to pull the trigger when I do see my setups.
2. Trading reversals that are not in extended trends and during which the internal market energy has not reversed.
3. Trading only 1 time frame without the confirmation of a longer term chart.
4. Trading while tired.
5. Over trading. Never try to make up for losses or missed trades. Never trade out of boredom. Never take any trade that doesn't match my rules 100%.
6. Not taking profits on my first exit soon enough. This is critical to adjust my cost position in the trade and therefore keep losses small.
7. Exiting my entire position too soon. I must keep at least part of my position alive until the energy of the trade has shifted so that I can ride the big moves.
Well, that's my confession.
Now you know my sins, but I imagine they're not so different than yours.
Have you committed these trading sins ... or your own unique ones?
The only solution is to REPENT!
That doesn't simply mean to say you're sorry.
It means to change your behavior.
Many people treat trading as:
an intellectual exercise.
a mathematical challenge.
or a research project.
Actually it's more about managing your behavior than anything else ... of course that's often the most difficult thing of all!
*********************************************************
I couldn't have said it better!
Barry can be found at: http://www.myspace.com/topdogtrading
Happy New Year !!
Forex Journey
Friday, December 28, 2007
Are you a forex trader or a gambler?
Here's an article I found in my files. Given the approach of the New Year, now is an excellent time to re-enforce those good trading habits and thoughts ... enjoy!!
How many pips do you need to be wealthy? The answer may surprise you.
About 2 years ago I sent out a similar letter that changed the outlook and the lives of many traders. While most at the time were mini-traders a simple 25 pip gain equated to a mere $25.00. "How can I live off of that?" I was repeatedly asked. It didn't take long to put this into perspective.
Determining Percent Return
Profits are one thing, percent return is another. Monthly profits may add up to look nice or not so nice, but what is the actual return? I am sure we have all heard traders say, "I made 1,000 pips last month." OK.. what was your percent return? Not only for one month, but for the life of your trading.
Return Calculation
The simple return calculation is used to determine your return on an investment after you sold it. Or in this case, the profits after closing trades over a period of time.
Here is the formula:
Net Proceeds /Cost Basis - 1 x 100
Let's run through a simple example.
Suppose you traded one standard forex contract for a profit of 200 pips. This would be a raw profit of $2,000. The cost in this case was the spread and the margin needed to secure the contract; the most common margin is 100:1. Thus it cost a temporary, $1,000 to secure this contract. We say temporary because we all know we would not trade without a stop loss, most likely the stop would have been worth about $250.
Calculation:
Net Proceeds = $2000
Cost Basis = $20 (spread) + $1,000 margin
($2,000 /$1,020 - 1) x 100 = 96% (Just under 100% in a single 30 days)
What about per year?
Try it, you will be amazed. Hint: Don't forget to compound.
Take Home Message
Trade conservatively, a few 25 pip trades per week (300 pips per month) on a single lot can give you a return of just under 200% a month. Build your account slowly, trade with the same level of caution, just add more lots. This is the best method, the most realistic method and the lowest stress method of enjoying the rewards of forex.
John Keister
ForexInterBank
Happy Trading from ForexJourney.com!!
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Clarity
Clarity. This is my word, my mission for 2008. I am going (notice I did not say “try to”), let me repeat, I am going to achieve clarity in all aspects of life including my trading. As many of my readers know I had a very eventful 2007. I became a dad for the first time. This has brought a new meaning to life. One that many of my friends have mentioned, but one I truly didn’t understand until I experienced it myself. It has been the greatest single joy of my life, not to mention a major adjustment in trading schedule.
I define have one simple New Year’s resolution that will permeate my life and my trading – seek clarity in every aspect of my Forex trading and perform every action with intent!
I know what you are thinking; it seems kind of pie in the sky, but think about it. We should approach all our actions with clarity and intent. Design the outcome well before we enter a currency trade. Keeping mental focus it what really separates long term profits and losses.
I encourage each of you to take the time now and revisit your Forex trading plan. Learn from your mistakes, because they are your most valuable teachers. My goal is to always present clear intent into my Forex trading in 2008, what’s your intent?
Happy New Year’s from ForexJourney.com
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