Forex Strategy - F

Point : 69
Beware of holiday situations like the long July 4th weekend. Trading tends to be thin, and it is difficult to produce meaningful pivot points. Best to just go golfing, and forget about it. There's nothing that says you have to trade every day. Get a life.

Point : 70
If you are having trouble with your entry points, I suggest you try waiting until you see a hammer or a spinning top, and then pull the trigger. You may wait a long time, but at least you will be sure of getting a good entry point, as these particular candles are powerful precursors to a shift in price direction. Have a look at any chart and see how many of these candlesticks you can pick out. You might be surprised at how many there are. For more information on these bar formations, please read my August, 2003 edition of my newsletter: www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletter0803.htm Obviously, if you click on that link after August 1, 2003 the newsletter will be there. Before then, it won't.

Point : 71
I just returned from a meeting with a group of young traders who have been at the forex for the past two and a half months. They are making steady progress, and I am extremely proud of them. I thought I would pass along their observations that may prove helpful to your own trading. They have backed off short-term trading, and are more into position trading the forex – using a longer timeframe – taking cues from the 1 hour chart. They also believe that signals that occur on that chart are more powerful than those on the 15 min. For example, a signal on the 1 hour would have more weight than an indication on the 15 min.

Basically, what they are saying is that you should wait on a trade for confirmation on the 1 hour chart before pulling the trigger, unless of course you see an ironclad setup on the 15 min chart. Trading is shades of gray ladies and gentlemen. These ideas are working for them. That doesn't mean to say you can't experiment on your own. If you do and find something that works for you, please let me know, and I'll share it with the rest of the gang.

Point : 72:
Clarification re Aug. 22/03 chart, thanks to Bill: Bill quite rightly pointed out in the chart for August 22/03 that there were hammers at 3:01 and between 5:01 and 6:01 that didn't take. My answer to him was that such a candle should be complemented by some other indication of a shift in price direction. For example, in the cases he cited above, price did not break the down trendlines - so, in effect, the hammers' supposed effect was nullified. To conclude, bar formations that should signal a change in price direction should be accompanied by other signals, including pivot points. In other words, what happens to price around a pivot point when you see a hammer? Does the pivot point support what the candle is saying? Thanks Bill for this.

Point : 73
I was recently asked where one could find volume figures for a currency. None of the popular sites carry it. Nor is it necessary as the Forex is a very liquid market. Volume is somewhat redundant anyway in that regard. You just need to use technical analysis to trade the Forex.

Point : 74
Pay attention to that news. I had been calling for an advance in the euro and Swiss franc and, sure enough, they both popped on bad unemployment news in the U.S. September 5, 2003. News is not noise in the Forex.

Point : 75
There are “talking” bulls and bears and there are “real” bulls and bears. The real ones are reflected in volume and open interest. But, these numbers are not available for inter-bank currency trading. However, they are reported for futures markets, which represent a good proxy for sentiment because they are primarily a vehicle for speculation.

Turning points in currency markets often coincide with extremes in open interest levels, which represent extremes in speculation. The key here is to watch for extreme levels and extreme changes in both open interest and volume to signal a possible change in trend.

Open interest numbers are of little use intraday. However, knowledge of a change in trend or extreme speculation in a particular currency based on open interest and volume can be valuable information for any trader in any time frame. That’s where an understanding of how COT works can improve your chances of detecting the underlying bias to a particular FX currency based on its futures counterpart, and anticipating its next move.

As at September 2/03, the commercial traders were extremely long with their net futures positions on the euro FX and the Swiss franc FX, versus the funds, which were extremely short. When you see such extreme divergence between these two camps, you know that price will probably follow the commercial traders’ lead.

The euro FX and Swiss franc FX represented good position trades to the long side at that time. A good buy-and-hold situation for position traders. Sure enough on September 5/03 we had bad unemployment numbers coming out of the U.S., and both currencies popped. Who could have guessed?

Point : 76
I think there is a misconception out there that you have to trade only the 15 min chart. You can also trade off the 1 hr and daily charts. It just lengthens the cycle. For example, when I called the euro and Swiss franc to rise, you could have taken a position on the daily chart and rode it up. That's all I'm saying. Likewise, you can wait to take a position until you see a valid entry point on the 1 hr chart. Etc.

Point : 77
For newbie traders, it is probably best to steer clear of Mondays, the day after a holiday weekend and end-of-quarters where there is a lot of position squaring going on.

Of course, there’s more to be learned about currency trading strategy in my original book on trading and the two e-books on trading the forex – available only at currency trading strategy You automatically get all three when you order at that link. If you are reading this page, you probably already have these books, and are reaping the benefits.


Happy trading