Trading Thoughts

Trade to be great and not just good.
Trade to be profitable
Don’t trade not to lose.
Embrace the challenges of the day.
Dismiss the distractions.
Be decisive.
Know your expected outcome before executing the trade.
Don’t focus on the results.
Focus on the execution.
Take responsibility for the outcome.
Be realistic and committed.
Believe in yourself without doubt.
Focus on the pips and not the balance.
Become your own coach and cheering section.

Happy Trading!!

Snap

Hi Forex Nation!!

I have a little tip to help with the dark side of trading.

All traders find themselves from time to time violating some of their own trading rules. There are legitimate times when it is OK for rules to be broken. For the beginner trader, this last rule should never be explored! If are relatively new to trading or you find yourself repeatedly make emotionally bad decisions while you are hanging on to a trade, this tip is for you!

Try this… (Especially if your technical exit has been reached (profit or loss) or you hear that inner voice going “get out, get out and you don’t!!).

When trading, place a large rubber band around your wrist. Anytime you violate one of your trading rules give it a good snap!! On exit rule violations give it 2 snaps!!

That will interrupt your bad thought process and break your habit of violating your plan. No, I am not sadistic, but trust me it will work!!

Happy (Ouch) Trading!!

FX Trainer Financial Services Inc, Creating Success in FX

Power of Full Engagement

A book review….

Hi Forex Nation!!

I have just read The Power of Full Engagement by Jim Loehr and Tony Schwartz. This is good stuff! The book challenges the most commonly held principal that the key to high performance is not through superior time management, but through superior energy management.

The authors focus on both physical and mental energy as they lead you down their theory through a series of real-life examples of past clients. The authors got there start as performance coaches of professional athletes. These athletes spend most of there time practicing their trade, managing their energy and developing mental and physical routines to ensure superior performance at the most critical moments of competition.

The author carries those traits into the corporate world. Recommending that high performance in the business world requires the same approach as an athlete. Managing energy and performance/personal renewal routines translates to peak performance and benefits well beyond your trading station.

I read this book and am now recommending it to you, the Forex Trader. Although this book has no mention of the markets or trading (I think that that is for the good!), these principals can be easily applied to our trading world. We need to be at our peak performance at the moment of truth also.

When we are executing trades is where we need to be at our peak performance. Ensure you are always at your peak during your trading sessions!


Happy Trading!!


Click here for this and other trading enhancement books.

The Da Vinci Forex Code

Hi Forex Nation!!

Did anyone see the Da Vinci code this weekend?? I did! No, I have not read the book, but every time I got on an airplane the past 2 years there was always someone reading this book!

Did you notice the references to Fibonacci all over the movie? I did, and was counting the sequence right along with John Langdon (aka Tom Hanks)! That got me thinking a little more about one of my favorite trading tools and what it all means. So I went hunting for some facts and this is what I found.

Leonardo Fibonacci was the Italian mathematician who was born around the year 1170 AD. His real name was Leonardo Pisano, but was better known by his nickname Fibonacci (“son of Bonnacci”). Fibonacci’s father was a diplomat and his son traveled with him during his formidable years studying mathematics and accounting.

In 1202, Fibonacci wrote Libre Abaci, a book about the mathematics he had learned on the road with his father. That book led to his famous number sequencing when measuring the ratios for which rabbits reproduce.

His sequence 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,… is that each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers. The interesting thing is that each of the successive numbers is equal to 1.168 of the prior number.

Check this out!

When looking at this geometrically you find that when you measure a triangle by 1.00 as the hypotenuse the opposing side ratios are .786 and .618. Hey, I have seen those ratios before!

When we make .786 the hypotenuse than the opposing side ratios are .618 and .486. No way!!

If we make .618 the hypotenuse then the opposing side ratios are .486 and .382. Right on!!

The Fibonacci ratios that I always focus on in my trading are:

Retracements:
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
78.6%

Extensions and Expansion:
61.8%
100%
127% (note that INDU turned almost on this extension last week!!)
162%

Want some more or have you had enough? I thought you would want one more example of FIBOs in nature!

Look at your own hand:
You have...
2 hands each of which has ...
5 fingers, each of which has ...
3 parts separated by ...
2 knuckles

All Fibonacci numbers! How about this, the bones in your finger are all in Fibonacci ratios to each other too! Is this just a coincidence or not??

OK, OK I think I just gave everyone a headache. You are all probably thinking that I need to get away from my trade station more often! Bottom line is that you don’t really need to know the details of Fibonacci’s life or all the examples in nature.

The bottom line is that we all know how important these ratios are to our trading and it will pay huge dividends to learn how to apply these principals to our trading!!

Happy Trading!!

---------------------------------------
More information on trading with Fibonacci can be found at FX Trade Central or Fib Master!!
If you have not checked out my Lens or don’t know what a Lens even is click on the links below and you will be on your way!!

Forex Journey Lens

Success in FX Lens

---------------------------------------

The Black Box

No, I am not blogging about an aviation accident investigation.

I got a call from a friend of mine the other day and he asked me if I was still trading Forex?

Uh, yah!!!

After catching up for a little bit he came to the real reason for his call. He had gone to a free seminar in town last weekend about a company touting their automated forex trading platform. He described the event and I vaguely remember getting something in the mail about it. It ended up in the shredder with the rest of my junk mail.

He described how cool it was to see the green lights to trade and red lights to exit and that it was much easier than looking at charts and studying the market.

He asked me for my opinion and I gave it to him and now I am about to give it to you!

I am not a big fan of those ‘black box’ trading systems. Quite honestly I have never traded with them, but have spoken to plenty of people who have. I am not here to discourage anyone from using them in their investment plans; I just want to explain why I prefer discretionary trading systems.

From what I found out the big disadvantage to those black box systems is that you can experience large draw downs in your account balances. If I am going to take a draw down (and we all will at some point) I want to understand why and implement corrective actions!

So much for compounding!

I am sure these systems work and fit into someone’s investment plan. Just not mine!

Maybe it is my upbringing, but I like to be in a little more control than that! I want to make the decisions and understand why things worked and why they don’t. That way next time I can make a better decision.

Donald Trump lost billions of dollars only to have it all back and more just a few years later. Why? Because his ‘block box’ investment system was between his ears.

Education is King!!

Let’s stop looking for the easy way and focus! You will get through the learning curve and never look back.

But my most compelling reason to stay with the discretionary trading systems is that the market is controlled by humans and human emotions still rule. To round out your trading tool bag study Fibonacci and Elliott Wave trading techniques, and utilize these strategies and others in your discretionary trading systems which are based on naturally occurring instances in nature. The same process that controls human emotion.


Happy Trading!

Visit FX Trade Central’s Forex Courses for beginners and advanced course reviews including recommendations and more information on Fibonacci and Elliott Wave.

New Forex Lenses

Hi Forex Nation!!

On my last posting I mentioned that I was working on setting up a series of Lenses.

What is a Lens?

Well, I have recently come across the concept of a Lens provided by Squidoo. The idea behind it is great as it is like a one stop shop for something that you are passionate about (Forex!!) giving useful information and links. Some examples of a lens could include:

Your hobby

Your business / industry

Favorite celebrity

Favorite recipes

I am a huge Sopranos fan and there was even a Lens dedicated to the show!
Back to business…

The list really is endless, you talk about what you want to and it is opportunity to educate people! And you know I am all about education! Well I have created two Forex related Lenses. The links are provided below (just clock on the icons) and on the sidebar of this blog. I also have two icons on the side bar and they are linked to the two different FX Lenses.

Forex Journey – The Lens

Success in FX

You can help my ranking by visiting my Lenses and giving them a 5-star ranking!! You have to register, but it is FREE! (Thanks in advance!!)

Keep this in your back pocket, because soon you will be hearing about this concept all over the Internet!!

Happy Trading!

Back to the Basics

Hello Forex Nation!!

Time to get back to basics!

One of the things I like to do on a weekly basis is review my notes when I first started trading the forex market. It serves to reinforce the foundation of my technical analysis, as well as ground me in the very basics of currency trading, no different than bridge builder anchoring their support structures in bedrock!

There is nothing stronger in technical analysis than support and resistance!

FX Traders have at their disposal a number of different technical indicators, but at the end of the day chart support and resistance it the biggest tell-tale sign of what price action truly means.

In Trading 101 we were all taught the virtues of plotting support and resistance. No matter what strategy I am evaluating (swing, intraday) my first actions is to plot support and resistance in the applicable time frames. I use Fibonacci lines confirm my analysis.

Another anchor point I use is trendlines.

Here are some general guidelines you may want to follow. First, look at the general trend of the market. The trend is your friend. For instance if the trend is down this means you have more down days than up -- and usually more pronounced movement to the downside on those down days. Same observations can be made for an uptrend.

I know traders that won’t even trade if the general and daily trends are not in synch.
Once these support and resistance lines are broken then price tend to move rapidly to the next area of support/resistance and the previous break becomes the new floor/ceiling.

Bottom line is to continually build your technical acumen by staying firmly planted in the basic principals of technical analysis.

You can find more FX education and course infromation of FX Trade Central!!

Happy Trading!

Side Notes:

- In addition to trading (always #1) I about working on a Lens. What is a Lens? Stay tuned for my next posting an I will explain.

Forex correlation

When treading stocks traders can take advantage of volume which is very usefull when trading technically, forex do not have volume, you maybe saw tool which shows volume on charts for example meta trader has such option but it is only diffrence between close and open price, but fortunetly when trading forex, we can use something diffrent and even more usefull then volume, currency correlation.

Most (if not all) currencies pairs are correletated in some level, it is mainly because of Forex structure, in fact it can be called dollar and anti dollar market, face it dollar (despite it is getting weaker and weaker every day) is still the most important currency, so US economic news has impact on all currencies, but that is not even a point.

When trading forex we trade two currencies, let's make it EUR/USD for sake of example, if we predicted it is going up and we are always right :> then what about USD/CHF? If there are US news that move dollar price down, then at the same time when EUR/USD is going up USD/CHF MUST go down, i think it is logical no more explenation needed.

So how to take adventage of currency correlation?

First of all go to www.mataf.net and checko out how much and which currencies are the most correleated ones (i can tell you know that it will be EUR/USD and USD/CHF but shhhh check it out by yourself) at the diffrent days diffrent cross pairs can have diffrent correlation value, pick the ones with value about 80 or -80, and remeber to use timescale which is suitable to your trading style, if you trade intraday then it will be stupid to look at 20 day correlation are you with me here?

Second, egzamine the charts. If you choosed XXX/USD, YYY/USD and USD/ZZZ and from your technical analysis it looks like first to will go down and third will go up then ther is very high probability that very strong and quick move in your direction wil occur, enough said.

Now you proboably know what to do, check correlation, check charts and set your positions :)

Forex Trading Tools

Hi Forex Nation!

I was discussing with some friends about setting yourself up to begin trading currencies. I found this good article (a little general), but provides a good outline for what do if your are ready to dive in and start learning!

Forex Trading Tools - Trading Computers, Forex Charting Software, Trade Stations, Trading Platforms, Forex Advisories,, Forex News:

"This is a collection of Forex 'Tools of the Trade' -- products and services that we have found to be the best of all we have tried over many years, and additonally selected because the companies behind them have demonstrated reliable service, integrity and value. They are beginner-friendly, yet offering a growing trader lots of support. Look for the Forex-Trader discounts.
To trade Forex successfully you will need the basics:

1. A reliable, reasonably fast computer, preferably with high speed access to the internet (DSL or Cable Modem for example). An Internet dial-up account or the telephone becomes your back-up should your primary access fail.

2. Good foreign currencies 'charting software' with a reliable, accurate data feed so that you can track currency movements in real time and perform the technical analysis necessary to trade effectively.

3. An on-line Forex trading account with a brokerage firm which provides a reliable Trading Platform, fair 'spreads', quick execution of trades, good on-line reporting, and excellent customer service.

4. A subscription to at least one Forex Trading 'Advisory Service' which provides market overviews at least daily. This gives you the context and overall directions of the market and will greatly assist in your own analysis and decision making.

Most importantly, you will need effective training and/or mentoring to master the techniques and discipline which 90 percent of beginning traders lack. This can be home study via cd's or on-line lessons, classes you travel to, or trainer/mentors who come to you. "

My blog is dedicated to helping those on the journey that currency trading has become for me!

Click here to see my recommended currency training courses.

Also I have established a training curriculum to guide the "new" currency traders through their first year of trading the forex market.

Happy Trading!

SilverTrend Indicator

When trading Forex i had a big issue with entry points i though: is retracement confirmed or is it not, is it time to enter or better wait for a while, my Forex entry strategy wasn't good, until i found simple to use SilverTrend Indicator, actually he is not doing a lot but helps me big time, it gives objective entry signals, and ofcourse it works best on trending market

Let's look at the picture. It is ofcourse 4H EUR/USD chart, i drew there two trendlines which form a channel, we have got bullish market no doubt about it.

Now look at blue arrows the ones very close lower trend line are giving very strong LONG signal, you can chceck it by yourself, look arrow in the middle between two trendlines (5th arrow) is giving false signal well may be it was opportunity to make few pips but i wouldn't risk there, on the other hand last signal (last blue arrow) which is nearly on trendline gave more then 160 pips in few hours.

You proboably also see orange arrows but i do not think it is wise going short when market is definitely going long, but when market is going down we ofcourse do the opposite, enter when signal is given by orange arrow.

I know it looks great and you may be thinking "hey, let's write an mechanical expert who will go long and short when signals are given!" this proboably isn't bad idea where market is going up or down, but be aware that when Forex is moving horizontal this mechanical strategy would wipeout your account in no time, because silver trend alert when trend change is confirmed on trading market when confirmation occurs it usually end of the trend.

Now for the price of this indicator ... just kidding it is free and comes in two versions.
Silver Trend standad silver trend indicator
Silver Trend Alert this version of indicator comes with popup and sound alert so you will never miss a trade :) but when using it for more then a week it gets boring so i am not using alerts right now.

Last word of warning, you can also find other indicator with word "trend" in their namess which look better then silver trend and cost more then 100$ dollars, most of them are nothing more then silver trend modified a bit and presented by vertical lines or something equal, do not throw your money on it.

Marketiva, good or bad?

Proboably everyone heard about Marketiva, the most controversive Forex broker, forum threads about it are like soap opera, but they are not giving any info on this broker, they are just arguments and flame wars, so i decided to put hear my objective review on them.

First of all trading is real business, where big money are made and big money are lost, so when my cash is at risk i would like at least to know who is holding them, Marketiva gives us only their team happy faces (which i couldn't actually find by now so they may be gone) and their first names, needless to say i expectet something more from company holding huge amounts of cash.

You can ofcourse try to contact Marketiva team via their website and ther is another surprise, no contact information, no postal address, no telephones, no fax, no nothing only contact form which is used on personal websites and shouldn't be used by professional company IF it is registred company, i am not sure about that, but i am sure they are not registred in any broker organization.
Marketiva claims to be fully automated company working on the internet, so this may be the reason why they do not give any contact info but that is a poor explenation in my opinion.

I also checked their domain name there is everything ok, domain registred for a long time so they are proboably here to stay, but domain costs only 10$ a year. Well there isn't much more i can say about their domain and hosting everything looks good, there are even some contact information but i didn't checked them out.

There also seems to be a problem with Marketiva support, some people where complaining about it, but i never had a problem with support and this is natural that there always will be someone who is complaining, but keep in mind i am not saying thoose who were/are complaining aren't right it is just impossible to prove who is right.

Now most important part, their treading platform, i have to admit it looks nice, it has many "tabs" which can be drag and droped anywhere you like, charts look fine, fast access to account center, help, chat, alerts and signals, and unfortunetly this are all pros.
Open positions behave funny, i won't tell you what i exactly mean you have to see it by yourself, OpenPositionPrice-CurrentPrice rearly seems to match. Charting software has got a lot of indicators but do not allows to draw on charts (trndlines and Fibonacci).
When we are talking about trading it is important to tell that they allow to trade for as small as 1$, this is the biggest adventage over other brokers.

They accept deposits via e-gold (also bank wirehard and e-bullion but this is off interest to me right now) it is hard to tell if it is good, first of all money transfered via e-gold can be laundred, but many users like to pay by e-gold it is very popular and cheap no commissions. Also Marketiva takes only 8$ commision from withdrawals by e-gold most brokers have at least 20$ (by bank wire and it is actually bank commission but i don't care commission is a commission)

My conclusion is if you have more then 500$ to trade forget about Marketiva there are better brokers, but if you want to start trading or learning how to trade and have small amount of cas between 10$ and 100$ Marketiva is best for you. What about those with money between 100$ and 500$? Well you have to decide by yourself do you have enough information about them, do you think your money will be safe with them and remember that there are at least 2 brokers (besides Marketiva) that allow to trade less then 1 mini lot.

Click here to visit Marketiva.

Forex Candles

Lately i sterted to wounder, candles where made for stock market which is open only 8 hours a day, so every daily candle on stock market has it's own meaning it is seperated timeframe, on the other hand Forex is never close (except weekends) so what is the value of Forex daily candle?

My doubts became even bigger when i found out that Steve Nison (world class candlesticks expert) has a seminar on diffrences between Forex and Stock Market candles, so there must be something on it.

Anyway I am not Steve Nison but here is my take on it.

1. Diffrent people can have diffrent candles on their monitors, for example when i see doji, someone on the other side of the globe can see "hammer" or any other candle, why? Anserw is simple no one can tell you when one day on forex market has passed, it can be diffrent hour in Europe, diffrent in America and diffrent in Asia, more over traders in one country can have diffrent candle patterns on their charts, it is very subjective, everything comes down to defined hour of the day when new candle is open.
On the other hand there isn't such problem on the Stock Market everyone has got the same daily candle.

2. I said it before but i will reapeat it here, Forex market do not close, actually it do not have such a thing a session (unless you threat time from monday to friday as a session). On Stock Market yesterday candle has got nothing common with todays candle, hard to belive it but this is the way it is and that is why there are so many gaps on stocks charts, don't get me wrong i am not saying that trend do not exists i'm just saying that daily candles on Stock Market are "self dependent", unlike Forex candles they are almost always close to each other, one cadle close price is next candle open price, it is very common you have to agree.

3. As for gaps, you will hardly see them on Forex, but sometimes they occur, espacially after weekend it looks like "something" had to happen to move open price far away from last close price, on Stock Market it happens daily on Forex weekly, in fact it can be even monthly.

These are my thoughts, but i have got one question for you. What is the point in using candles on 5M charts? They can't even make a simple formation, even if they do it is pointless to use it You proboably saw 5 or more doji in a row on charts less then 5M is there any interpretation for this, each of them means trend reversal? I do not think so.

Forex Trading Strategy: Hedge Hog (GBP/CHF)

This is known Hedge Hog strategy but with diffrent currency pair, diffrent set up, incredibly high returns and drawdown, but i think it is really worth a look.

Here is what to do:
Every day at 24:00 GMT go to your account and put on Hedge Transaction on GBP/CHF or with open price at current level.
Set Take Profit: 20 pips
Set Stop Loss: 450 pips
for both transactions (LONG and SHORT)

I made back tests for last 3 years and this are the results:
leverage 1:10 (starting capital 10 000$, lot size 1 lot)
3 pip spread included in results
system shows average 13,37% monthly return
largest drawdown is 4 100$ which is about 41% of starting capital
Maximum loss in single trade -284 pips


I know that drawdown and maximum loss are very disappointing they are quite high, so you may want to decrease leverage from 1:10 to 1:5 drawdown will be then much more acceptable, but ofcourse avg. return will be only 7% monthly.

If you are interested then go ahead and try this system out with a demo account.
As always email me for spreadsheet with backtest results.

Stop Trading!!!

You ever watch a court room drama on TV and have the judge order a recess just as things are getting hot and out of control?

Have you ever been in a trade when things got hot and out of control?

Well, that is the time to stop trading and time to regroup!

Professional traders have a built in advantage in the form of a professional risk manager. These risk managers oversee the traders and monitor their trading activities.

Once professional trader drops below a certain level they must cease trading activities and re-access the market and their trading criteria.

Professional traders are not the only ones with a risk manager to oversea their activities.

In baseball, when a pitcher is having a rough outing the pitching coach will call time out and visit the pitcher. The pitching coach will discuss strategy and mechanics in an attempt to get the pitcher to re-group and re-focus.

If things continue to go bad for the pitcher, the next visit is by the manager to remove the pitcher from the game. Better to stop the pitcher from continuing in order not to jeopardize the game further.

We must also think about having a risk manager!

Individual traders do not have a professional risk manager at their disposal. The individual trader must rely on training, discipline and a solid trading plan.

Like a court room recess or a pitcher being taken out of the game, we must program into our trading plans rules for taking a time out and re-grouping after a series of poorly executed trades or market misreads.

Loses are a part of trading. However, we should have a maximum daily and account size draw that would trigger a predefined re-evaluation of our trading activities.

If we do not have a strategy to regroup built into our trading plan, then you risk letting emotions rule of trading decisions. That can only result in a downward spiral and a quick end of your trading capital and possibly to your FX career.

Remember, the market is always right! But also remember that the market is not trying to punish you. The market is only providing you feedback! The market can be a great teacher, but only if you are prepared to take advantage of the lesson.

“The expectations of life depend upon diligence; the mechanic that would perfect his work must first sharpen his tools.”
- Confucius

Sign up for FXTC’s FREE Forex Newsletter to stay current with your forex education.

To be a complete forex trader visit FXTC’s Forex Education Roadmap. Continuous education will be your springboard to currency trading success!

Happy Trading!

Swing trading vs. Intraday trading

My story. When i started trading forex i thought intraday is the way to go, make few pips close position and make next trade, but i remember one day when i looked at my forex account and saw that i made 20 pips i thought it's great but when i looked at chart i realised that when my take profit was hit, price moved more then 50 pips in my direction, needless to say i felt like a looser despite i made 20 pips, so i started to wounder maybe swing trading is better then intraday...

Well since then it is almost a year now and here is what i have learned about trading Forex intraday and Swing trading.

Let's egzamine Forex Swing Trading.

First of all when we look at any educational chart we can see that most of them are made on 4H or 1D interval, why is that you may ask? The anserw is simple all this technical indicators works best in long intervals, longer the interval is, more accurate indicator will be. We can also look at it from statistical point of view the more data we have, more reliable our tests are.

Trading long term means ofcourse less trades, and less trades means less spread. Face it spread is killer of most profitable intraday strategies, but when "swinging" you don't have to care about spread it if you make between 50 and 150 pips in single trade why care about 2 pip spread?

You don't have to make decisions right on the spot and don't have to click fast to get best price.
Once technical analysis done for 1D chart you have at least one week free of technicals.

Now for disadvantages, sometimees even when trading more then 10 currencies you don't have a single position open for a week or even month, that it is without a doubt bad. We trade Forex to make money not let them sleep and do nothing.

Trading quick currencies may be risky (when you do not set up take profit) i many times saw price moving 70 pips in my direction and then turn around and hit my stop loss in no time. and i couldn't actually do anything about it because i left my trades open, it doesn't matter that my prediction was good stop loss was hit and that is a fact.

More over when stop loss was hit and you have no open trades left there is always this feeling: "i want to get back there, i want to recover" but when swing trading clear GO signals do not happen often.


Now it is time for Forex Intraday Trading

It is somewhat like being a partizant, when opportunity occurs you attack take profit and run, i am not saying it is bad or good, it is just my feeling. Anyway i found out that intraday trading strategies easy to follow i mean you just look at 30M chart identify trend and place transaction, on the other hand when "swinging" you trade longer timeframe trend, it sometimes happens that when yor realize that trend has changed you already lost 10% of your account.

You can trade any day and any time it rarely happens that market is so slow that you can't even make 10 pips from it.

In fact trade signals are very often on 5M chart and unlike swing strading you don't have to worry that your money will be doing nothing at all, your money are working from monday to friday and that's the way it should be.

Ofcourse a lot of signals can mean a lot of transactions, but when you start losing then a lot of transaction means a lot of looses, it is often that when trader takes a loose he want to quickly recover unfortunetly when Intraday trading it almost always means another loose.

Last disadvantage, the biggest enemy when trading intraday is spread even if it small you have to pay a lot of it.


So this is it if you have any comments feel free to post it.

The Canadian Dollar, Swissy of the Americas!

The Canadian Dollar is emerging as the Swiss Franc of the Americas! Recently, the CAD has ascended to levels against the USD that has not been seen since the 1970s!

Let’s take a look at some of the events which would make it the CAD the nouveau safe haven currency of the Western Hemisphere.

1. Euro as Reserve Currency

Central Banks have been on a recent run of reorganizing their foreign reserves. Most Central Banks are diversifying into more euro holdings and less USD. This has solidifying the Euro as a strong alternative in foreign reserve currency holdings.

A declining dollar benefits the CAD greatly!

2. Geo-Political Factors in the Americas

Cuba has long challenged the United States’ influence throughout the Americas. Recently, Venezuela has joined in the left-wing struggle and has been slowly renegotiated energy contract with the big multi-nationals.

With oil prices rising, Hugo Chavez has been exporting Venezuela’s new found oil influence throughout Latin America.

Recently, Venezuela was joined by Bolivia when, in a surprising move, nationalized their gas fields. This has many traders nervous since it is in the United States backyard.

3. CAD is the new Petro-Currency

In the time when the UK began pumping oil from the North Sea, GBP was the petro-currency of the time. Now a good oil play is to buy CAD and sell JPY. The CAD has shown strong correlation with the price of oil. CAD/JPY has shown an over 85% correlation to the price of oil since 2004.

Why the CAD/JPY? Simple! Canada is a net export of oil and Japan is a net importer of oil.

4. Net Exporter

Canada currently runs a trade surplus with its largest trade partner, the United States. This will give it more backing than any currency in the Americas as an alternate to the USD. Canada is rich in the commodities most in demand, oil, natural gas, diamonds and gold.

China and India are emerging economies with size. As their economy grows their demand for oil will grow also. So far OPEC has not demonstrated the capability to expand capacity in line with the increase in demand.

This should keep the CAD in demand as pressure for these resources are predicted to increase into the future.

The fact that the CAD has strengthened so much so fast should not be a surprise to anyone. This country has the resources and government control to play to its strengths, much like Switzerland.

Caution should be exercised. As with Britain when North Sea oil was plentiful, the CAD could strengthened to a degree that could trigger an economic downturn. North Sea oil peaked in 1999 and Britain is now a net importer of oil.

Conclusion, if you are looking for an oil play in the currency market or a safe haven to the USD in challenging geo-political times, let me introduce you to the Canadian Dollar.

For more currency education visit FX Trade Central!

Happy Trading!

Forex Trading Strategy: Hedge Hog (EUR/CHF)

I have recently done some reaserch on Forex to find strategy that will be easy to trade no double meaning when it comes to entry points, takes minimum amount of time, and ofcourse is profitable.

Here is what to do:

Every day at 24:00 GMT go to your account and put on Hedge Transaction on EUR/CHF or with open price at current level.
Set Take Profit: 10 pips
Set Stop Loss: 330 pips
for both transactions (LONG and SHORT)

I made back tests for last 3 years and this are the results:
leverage 1:10 (starting capital 10 000$, lot size 1 lot)
3 pip spread included in results
system shows average 4,16% monthly return
largest drawdown is 2 100$ which is about 21% of starting capital
Maximum loss in single trade -129 pips


Now what makes this strategy succesfull, first of all trading time, you put on transaction at the beginning of asian session which is often reanging about 30 pips so we have got higher Stop losses to prevent us from loosing capital, (in fact stop losses could be removed) and small TP to takesome profit.

If you are interested then go ahead and try this system out with a demo account.
Also email me for spreadsheet with backtest results.

Weekend Rants and Raves

Hi Forex Nation,

Non-Farm Payroll news has come and gone and I am heading for the golf course for some well earned time away from the markets!

I will be spending some time digesting the market events of the past several days this weekend. Before I go I just want to share with you some thoughts.

This is an Associated Press excerpt from my local paper this week …

“The nation’s largest companies continue to move away from providing traditional pensions, with just over a third now offering the benefit to newly hired workers, a sharp drop over the past few years, according to a survey released Wednesday.

Of the nation’s 100 largest companies, just 37 offered a traditional pension plan to new hires in 2005, down from 42 the previous year and 50 in 2002, according to benefits consulting form Watson Wyatt Worldwide.

In 1985, 89 of the largest 100 companies offered pensions.

At the same time, more companies are providing new hires with only a 401(k) or similar defined contribution plan, with 36 employers now going that route, up from 25 in the previous year and 17 in 2002.”

Being an active participant in the markets is going to be critical for us all. Whether you want to be an active trader like myself or just gain the upper hand in your 401(k) and IRA accounts.

Yes, I am a late generation Baby Boomer. I see the attitudes my parents have towards retirement and it is very clear that I am playing under a different set of rules.

Now is the time to take personal responsibility and get educated on the different investments vehicle available. I have chosen the forex market. I have a passion for currencies.

I also trade the stock market. I had a 4th grade teacher who taught our class about the stock market and would bring the New York Times to class every day. In the 4th grade!!!

I dabble in real estate and of course the Internet, primarily to share my passion for the currency market. I encourage everyone to find their passion, monetize it and enjoy life and the changes that life will inevitably bring.

OK, I have rant and raved enough about taking action to ensure your future! If you have been following my blog you know I do this about once per month.

If you really want to know what I think then sign up for FXTC’s FREE Forex Newsletter. I am giving away 2 special report focused on the changing global economy and how to trade the forex market as your part of your retirement plan.

Some new happenings…

FX Trade Central (aka FXTC) has just been updated!

If you are just starting out in FX trading FXTC has pieced together a currency education curriculum to help guide new traders through a solid first year of training and trading.

FXTC has also evaluated more currency trading courses. Visit the education course list to review the best of breed in forex education.

FX Trade Central has entered into an exciting partnership with Elliott Wave International. Visit FXTC regularly to get the latest updates and specials to learn how to ride the wave!

Happy Cinco de Mayo!

New FX Article and Website Changes

Hi Forex Team!

Are you getting pumped up for Thursday and Friday's economic data? Should be excellent trading days to close the week.

I have written another article about Elliott Wave analysis in forex market evaluation. Check it out and as always you are free to use the information and/or distribute the article as long as you retain my name as the author and link.


http://EzineArticles.com/?id=186739

I have spend a great deal of time revamping the website and reviewing more forex education courses. Feel free to visit FX Trade Central.

Happy Trading!

Today Forex trading results

Today i made 2 intraday trades first one on AUD/USD it was big mistake i lost 17 pips in less then 5 minutes, on the other hand i made 22 pips on LONG EUR/USD.

I suppose EUR/USD will be heading down soon, strong support is at 1.1710 it was already hit once so maybe this currency pair will form double top and it will be good to place SHORT order ther.

It’s a Leap of Faith

There is one thing anyone who trades the forex market will come to realize at some point in their trading career is that at any given time the market can and will do anything.

As technical traders we have spent time studying the markets and have grown fond of the lessons price action has taught us. We use events of the past to anticipate high probability actions of the future. But the hard and cold reality is that the market is the only one that truly knows what the market is going to do!

In the market there are buyers and sellers. Buyers will move a currency pair higher, while sellers will move a currency pair lower. Since there are human participants in the market we use tools of nature in our technical analysis such as Fibonacci ratios and Elliott Wave analysis. But in the end the profitability of a trader comes down to our basic beliefs.

When the market is moving up there are more forex traders with a belief of the market moving higher then there are traders believing the markets are moving lower.

It is that simple!

To keep trading profitably we must exhibit solid trading beliefs in ourselves and in our forex trading systems. Here are 3 traits we must incorporate into our currency training belief systems to have consistent success.

1. We must pre-define the risk before entering any trade. We must be able to quantify the “what if I am wrong” question. It is always the trader that is wrong and never the market itself.

2. Listen to the market. It will answer your question. Don’t ignore what the market is telling you. Solid traders will cut there loses with hesitation or reservation when the market goes against them.

3. Good forex traders have a systematic and organized system for taking profits. When entering a trade a successful forex trader will access the risk in a trade, enter a trade on a systematic risk-reward ratio and exit (without hesitation or reservation) when a profit target is achieved.

Expect the unexpected! Knowing the risk and reward and taking the trades that the market gives you is the best, most consistent way to succeed in the forex market. Trading the forex market is a marathon and not a sprint. You will hit some homeruns, but only if you apply a consistent and systematic approach to your trading.

We all must believe in something. Believe that the market is always correct and when you are wrong the market is not branding you as a failure, merely proving you with feedback to make you an even better trader!

For more information on the force market visit FX Trade Central , sign up for FXTC's Forex Education Newsletter and be sure and preview FXTC’s approved list of forex education courses and continuous learning tools.

Happy Trading!